A big mismatch in the ACC is set to take place on Wednesday night, when the Virginia Cavaliers face the Louisville Cardinals. In this matchup between the second place and last place teams in the ACC, Virginia is a heavy favorite, but Louisville is looking to pull a huge upset at home. In our college basketball betting picks for Wednesday night, we look at Virginia vs Louisville from a betting perspective.
Virginia vs Louisville Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Under 127.5 |
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This game will be played at KFC Yum! Center at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, February 15, 2023.
Why Bet on the Under:
✅ Virginia should be able to lock down Louisville throughout this game. The Cardinals are averaging just 64 points per game this season, while Virginia is allowing just 60.4 points per game.
✅ Virginia will also avoid trying to play at too fast a pace in this matchup. They rank 361st out of 363 Division I teams in Kenpom’s adjusted tempo metric. They will play good defense and play slowly on offense to keep this game low-scoring.
NCAABB
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
Team Stats Per Game
Advanced Game Stats
Offense/Defense
| VIR | Advanced Game Stats | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 61.6 | Pace | 73.5 |
| 95.4 | Off.Rate | 85.4 |
| .287 | FTr | .338 |
| .477 | 3PAr | .412 |
| .546 | TS% | .474 |
| 48.8 | TRB% | 48.9 |
| 64.7 | AST% | 44.3 |
| 6.5 | STL% | 8.2 |
| 15.2 | BLK% | 8.0 |
| .523 | eFG% | .447 |
| 20.4 | TOV% | 22.3 |
| 20.8 | ORB% | 30.1 |
| .194 | TF/FGA | .206 |
Defense/Offense
| VIR | Advanced Game Stats | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 61.6 | Pace | 73.5 |
| 99.0 | Off.Rate | 110.2 |
| .199 | FTr | .365 |
| .449 | 3PAr | .546 |
| .486 | TS% | .554 |
| 51.2 | TRB% | 51.1 |
| 53.2 | AST% | 54.1 |
| 14.3 | STL% | 12.9 |
| 9.7 | BLK% | 16.4 |
| .462 | eFG% | .518 |
| 12.8 | TOV% | 14.4 |
| 28.9 | ORB% | 31.5 |
| .139 | TF/FGA | .265 |
Betting Trends
| VIR | Betting Trends | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 0-3-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 66.67 | Avg Score | 73.33 |
| 62 | Avg Opp Score | 88.33 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
| 1-1-1 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 70.33 | Avg Score | 66.67 |
| 67.67 | Avg Opp Score | 71.33 |
| VIR | Betting Trends | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 4-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
| 3-1-1 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 68.6 | Avg Score | 70 |
| 61 | Avg Opp Score | 79.8 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
| 1-3-1 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 68.6 | Avg Score | 66.2 |
| 65.8 | Avg Opp Score | 74.8 |
| VIR | Betting Trends | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 9-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-9-0 |
| 6-3-1 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
| 70.2 | Avg Score | 67 |
| 62.2 | Avg Opp Score | 79.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-7-0 |
| 3-6-1 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
| 67.3 | Avg Score | 67.5 |
| 64 | Avg Opp Score | 73.7 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Virginia Cavaliers
The Virginia Cavaliers come into this ACC matchup against Louisville on a two-game winning streak. They took out NC State and Duke at home in those two games, moving them to 11-3 in ACC play, where they sit in second place in the conference. Here, they are massive road favorites against a poor Louisville team, which they will be expected to win handily.
The Virginia defense is always one of the best in the country, and this year is no exception. They are barely allowing 60 points per game, and should be able to shut down a Louisville team that ranks 271st in offensive efficiency at Kenpom this year. Expect Virginia to do what they do best in this game on the defensive end of the floor.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville has lost three straight games coming into this matchup with Virginia. They are 3-22 overall and 1-13 in conference play, with their lone ACC win coming over a Georgia Tech team that is 2-13 in the league on the year. Here, they will look to pull one of the upsets of the season against an elite Virginia Cavaliers squad.
The question for Louisville is whether or not they can generate enough offense to even be a threat in a game like this one. They are being outscored by an average of 12.1 points per game this year. If they cannot get close to the 70-point mark for this game, this game could be over quickly.
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