The No. 22 Virginia Cavaliers (21-7, 13-5 ACC) put their six-game winning streak on the line when they clash with the Miami Hurricanes (14-14, 6-12 ACC) at Watsco Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, and will air on ACC Network.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 120.5 points with Virginia set as a 2-point favorite at Draftkings West Virgina Sportsbook.
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes ATS Prediction
The Cavaliers come in on a high note after barely hanging on to beat the No. 7 Duke Blue Devils in their last contest, 52-50, as 3-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (102) were well under the projected point total of 123.5. Virginia held the Blue Devils to an effective field goal percentage of 0.339 (below their season average of 0.531). Duke, meanwhile, forced the Cavaliers into a turnover percentage of 21.6 (above their season average of 17.8). With 15 points on 7-for-9 shooting, Jay Huff was Virginia’s leading scorer.
The last time the Hurricanes were in action, they were beaten by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 63-57. They failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (120) came in well under the projected point total of 142.5. Georgia Tech’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Yellow Jackets had more offensive rebounds (18 vs. 12), defensive rebounds (30 vs. 21) and total rebounds (48 vs. 33). With 14 points on 5-for-13 shooting, Chris Lykes led Miami in scoring.
After the Cavaliers won the lone contest against the Hurricanes last season, 56-46, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Virginia had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (38.7 vs. 14.3). Miami, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (11.0 vs. 19.9).
Virginia has an outstanding 21-7 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (10-16-2 against the spread (ATS)). Cavaliers games have a slight tendency to go under the total (53.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 14-14 SU and 14-14 ATS. Hurricanes games tend to go over the total (60.7 percent).
It might be a tough game for Miami on the offensive glass. The Hurricanes rank 274th in offensive rebounding percentage (25.5 percent), while Virginia ranks 29th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.4 percent). Moreover, the Cavaliers, who rank 308th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.189), could have a difficult time getting to the line against the Hurricanes, who rank 11th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.158).
Virginia at Miami Pick
College Basketball Prediction: ATS Winner – Miami, O/U – Under
Virginia is 4-6-2 ATS on the road with 7 overs and 5 unders.
Miami is 8-4 ATS at home with 6 overs and 6 unders.
Virginia ranks 16th in rebounds allowed per game (30.5) while Miami ranks 279th (38.9).
The Cavaliers rank fourth in assists allowed per game (9.0) while the Hurricanes rank 266th (15.7).
Virginia ranks 19th in blocks per game (5.0) while Miami ranks 179th in blocks allowed per game (4.4).
The Hurricanes rank 171st in three pointers attempted per game (21.4) while the Cavaliers rank 237th (19.0).
Miami ranks 159th in steals per game (5.9) while Virginia ranks 164th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
Over its last five contests, Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Cavaliers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.6, down from 4.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hurricanes have scored an average of 77.2 points per game (4.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 71.4 points per game (3.2 below their season average).