Offense meets defense when the Air Force Falcons (7-8, 1-2 MWC) welcome the Utah State Aggies (13-4, 2-2 MWC) to Clune Arena. The game will air on ESPN2 at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 150 points with Utah State set as a 7-point favorite.
Utah State Aggies vs. Air Force Falcons ATS Prediction
In the Aggies’ last contest, they were 3.5-point favorites and were defeated by the No. 13 San Diego State Aztecs, 77-68. The game’s combined points (145) came in well over the O/U total of 130. San Diego State made nine of their 20 three pointers (45.0 percent). Utah State, on the other hand, was 6-23 (26.1 percent). Utah State’s Neemias Queta played well, finishing with 15 points and 14 rebounds.
The Falcons lost to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in their last outing, 71-59. They failed to cover as 6-point underdogs. The total points for the game (130) finished under the O/U total of 141. UNLV’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Air Force. The Runnin’ Rebels posted a mark of 13.5 (better than their season average of 19.3), while the Falcons had a rate of 22.0 (above their season average of 16.0). With 18 points and six rebounds, Ryan Swan put together a solid game for Air Force.
After the Aggies won both games against the Falcons last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Utah State won 76-62. The Aggies had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 18.8) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.563 vs. 0.490).
Utah State has an excellent 13-4 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 5-10 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Aggies’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Air Force is 7-8 SU and 7-7 ATS. Games involving the Falcons have a tendency to go over the O/U total (64.3 percent).
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength as the productive offense of Air Force takes on the top-notch defense of Utah State. The Falcons rank 14th in offensive efficiency, while the Aggies are 29th in defensive efficiency. Ball security should be an advantage for the Aggies. They rank 55th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 17.3 percent), while the Falcons force the 38th-fewest turnovers in the country (opponents’ turnover percentage of 17.4 percent).
Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons Free Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Over
On the road, Utah State is 2-6 ATS with 4 unders, 3 overs and 1 push.
Air Force is 3-3 ATS at home with 5 overs and 1 under.
Utah State ranks 10th in rebounds per game (41.9) while Air Force ranks 272nd (30.7).
The Aggies rank 24th in assists per game (16.8) while the Falcons rank 183rd in assists allowed per game (14.1).
Air Force ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while Utah State ranks 133rd (3.9).
The Aggies rank 162nd in three pointers attempted per game (21.7) while the Falcons rank 248th in three pointers allowed per game (26.5).
In its last five games, Utah State is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
Air Force is 1-3 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Aggies’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, down from 16.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Falcons have scored an average of 84.4 points per game (7.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 65.8 points per game (5.6 below their season average).