In their final home game of the season, the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (24-5, 14-2 SEC) host the Tennessee Volunteers (16-13, 8-8 SEC) at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. The game can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 132 points with Kentucky set as an 8.5-point favorite.
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats Betting Prediction
In the Volunteers’ last contest, they topped the Florida Gators, 63-58. The game’s total points (121) were under the O/U total of 131. Tennessee’s 14.3 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Florida, who had a mark of 21.1. The Volunteers’ mark was better than their season average of 18.2, while the Gators’ was above their season average of 15.6. Josiah-Jordan James was a key piece for Tennessee with 12 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
The Wildcats defeated the No. 15 Auburn Tigers in their last game, 73-66, covering as 5.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (139) finished just under the O/U total of 141. The Wildcats made 27 of their 33 free throws (81.8 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 9.5 (better than their season average of 16.3). Immanuel Quickley was the top scorer from either team with 18 points on 3-for-10 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. John Fulkerson had 16 points and seven rebounds in the first game, in which the Volunteers lost 77-64, unable to cover as 3-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 141 points, which was 9.5 points above the projected point total of 131.5 points. Kentucky’s 0.598 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Tennessee, who had a rate of 0.409.
Tennessee holds records of 16-13 straight up (SU) and 13-16 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Volunteers’ games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Kentucky owns records of 24-5 SU and 16-13 ATS. Wildcats games have gone under the projected point total 51.7 percent of the time.
Kentucky figures to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Wildcats rank 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.444), while Tennessee is 244th in effective field goal percentage (0.487).
Tennessee at Kentucky Betting Pick
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Kentucky, ATS Winner – Kentucky, O/U – Under
On the road, Tennessee is 7-6 ATS with 9 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Kentucky is 8-9 ATS with 10 unders and 7 overs.
Kentucky ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (5.1) while Tennessee ranks 197th (7.6).
The Volunteers rank 44th in three pointers allowed per game (18.8) while the Wildcats rank 207th (22.9).
Tennessee ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.8) while Kentucky ranks 99th in blocks allowed per game (3.2).
The Volunteers allow the 13th-fewest assists per game (9.9) while the Wildcats rank 34th (10.6).
Kentucky averages 37.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 85th in the NCAA. Tennessee ranks 90th in rebounds allowed per game (33.4).
Over its last five contests, Tennessee is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Volunteers have been outscored by an average of 3.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Tennessee has defeated opponents by an average of 3.6 points.
During their last five games, the Wildcats have scored an average of 70.6 points per game (4.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 64.6 points per game (0.8 below their season average).