We’re in the final week of the Big 12 Conference regular season, so I bring you the best TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers betting pick for Thursday, March 4. These two schools already met each other on February 23, and the Mountaineers outlasted the Horned Frogs 74-66 as 6.5-point road favorites with a total of 145.0 points.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Mountaineers are double-digit favorites for Thursday’s clash. They hold the third spot in the Big 12, just half a game behind the second-seeded Kansas and half a game ahead of fourth-placed Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs will finish the season at the eighth spot, so they can play in a relaxed manner.
TCU lost four of its last five games
The TCU Horned Frogs (12-11; 5-9 Conf.) are coming off a heavy 69-49 defeat at the Texas Tech Red Raiders this past Saturday. They played poorly on both sides of the ball, making just 38.8% of their field goals and committing 15 turnovers, while their rivals shot 51.8% from the field and 46.2% from downtown.
The Horned Frogs have dropped four of their last five games overall, covering the spread just once in the process. They are No. 121 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings. TCU scores only 106.7 points per 100 possessions (109th in the country) while yielding 102.0 in a return (168th).
Junior guard R.J. Nembhard is the Frogs’ best player this term. He’s averaging 16.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game, while freshman guard Mike Miles is posting 13.8 points and 3.2 assists a night. TCU ranks 178th in field goal percentage (44.1%) and 245th in opponent field goal percentage (44.9%).
West Virginia lost to Baylor, snapped a three-game win streak
The West Virginia Mountaineers (17-7; 10-5 Conf.) suffered a tough loss last Saturday, putting an end to a three-game winning streak. They lost to the No. 3 Baylor Bears in overtime, 94-89, blowing a huge opportunity to stun the best team in the Big 12 Conference.
The Mountaineers have played very well lately. They’ve lost just two of their previous eight games overall, and both losses came in overtime against the top-25 teams in the nation. West Virginia is No. 14 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 19 in the KenPom rankings.
Sophomore guard Miles McBride (15.7 PPG, 4.7 APG) and junior forward Derek Culver (14.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG) lead the way for the Mountaineers this season. West Virginia is tallying 117.7 points per 100 possessions (11th) while surrendering 95.5 points in a return (62nd).
TCU:
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall
- 6-11 ATS in the last 17 road contests
West Virginia:
- 5-2 ATS in the last seven games overall
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games played on Thursday
The Mountaineers could have some problems to overcome a painful loss to the Bears, but the prize of the victory should keep them focused. West Virginia is a much better team than TCU, so I’m expecting the Mountaineers to get back on the winning path and cover a huge spread along the way.
Both teams have some defensive issues, especially the Horned Frogs who could easily struggle a lot against the Mountaineers’ prolific offense. West Virginia makes 36.6% of its 3-pointers (56th) and score 17.2 points per game from the charity stripe (5th).
Pick: Take West Virginia -11.5 at -120
The Total:
Four of TCU’s last five games produced fewer than 141 points in total, and the Horned Frogs failed to surpass a 66-point mark four times in that stretch. The Frogs will certainly try to slow down things against the Mountaineers, so I’m backing the under on the totals.
The under is 4-1 in TCU’s previous five outings, but the over is 8-2 in West Virginia’s last ten showings. Still, I’m expecting the hosts to take control early in the game and try to improve defensively after that poor display against the mighty Baylor Bears.
Pick: Go under 145.5 points at -110
