In their final home game of the season, the Utah State Aggies (22-7, 11-5 MWC) host the San Jose State Spartans (7-21, 3-13 MWC) at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. The game can be seen on ESPN2 at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 147.5 points with Utah State opening as a 22-point favorite at PointsBet Sports Book.
San Jose State Spartans vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Prediction
In the Spartans’ last game, they were defeated by the Colorado State Rams, 78-71, but they were able to cover as 16-point underdogs. The game’s total points (149) came in under the O/U total of 156. Colorado State’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over San Jose State. The Rams had a rate of 35.7 (above their season average of 26.0), while the Spartans posted a mark of 23.1. Seneca Knight was the game’s high scorer with 37 points on 9-for-19 shooting.
The Aggies won big over the Wyoming Cowboys in their last contest, 78-58, but failed to cover as 21-point favorites. The combined points for the game (136) finished over the O/U total of 130. The Aggies held the Cowboys to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.5 (below the 21.7 mark opponents have averaged against Utah State this season). The Cowboys had a free throw rate of 0.140 (below their season average of 0.224). With 20 points and 14 rebounds, Justin Bean played well for Utah State.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Bean scored a game-high 18 points and the Aggies defeated the Spartans 71-59 but did not cover as 22.5-point favorites. He also put up 14 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 130 points, which was 19 points below the projected point total of 149 points. The Aggies’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Spartans. Utah State had a rate of 8.6, while San Jose State posted a mark of 21.2.
San Jose State holds records of 7-21 straight up (SU) and 13-14 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Spartans are involved, as 16 of their 27 games have gone over the projected point total.
Utah State is 22-7 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (12-15 ATS). Contrary to San Jose State, Aggies games have a tendency to finish under the total (55.6 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Knight (23 points,6.6 rebounds,1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Spartans while Sam Merrill (22 points,5.8 assists) has made solid contributions to the Aggies.
Utah State could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their high-powered offense goes up against one of the NCAA’s worst defenses. The Aggies currently rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while San Jose State ranks 332nd in defensive efficiency. Moreover, second chance points figure to be rare for the Spartans. They rank 276th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.2 percent, while the Aggies are eighth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 78.7 percent).
San Jose State at Utah State Pick
Free Basketball Tip: ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Over
On the road, San Jose State is 6-7 ATS with 7 overs and 6 unders.
Utah State is 7-6 ATS at home with 8 unders and 5 overs.
Utah State averages 40.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 11th in the NCAA. San Jose State ranks 273rd in rebounds allowed per game (40.0).
The Aggies rank ninth in assists per game (16.4) while the Spartans rank 268th in assists allowed per game (18.6).
San Jose State ranks 17th in three pointers attempted per game (27.6) while Utah State ranks 238th in three pointers allowed per game (24.0).
The Spartans rank 28th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while the Aggies rank 114th (3.3).
Utah State averages 6.2 steals per game, which ranks 141st in the nation. San Jose State ranks 190th in steals allowed per game (7.3).
In its last five contests, San Jose State is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah State is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Spartans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.6, up from 10.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aggies have scored an average of 72.6 points per game (3.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 60.8 points per game (3.0 below their season average).