The 2020-21 college basketball season goes on with a ton of interesting matchups on Saturday’s schedule, so here’s my best betting pick for the Pac-12 showdown at Jon M. Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City where the Utah Utes welcome the No. 17 Oregon Ducks.
The visitors are slight favorites, according to BetAmerica Sportsbook, and the Ducks have won 14 of their last 15 encounters with the Utes.
Oregon hopes to return to the winning path
The Oregon Ducks (8-2; 3-1 Conf.) are coming off a 79-72 defeat at the Colorado Buffaloes this past Thursday, failing to cover a 3.5-point spread and putting an end to their eight-game win streak. The Ducks lost the battle on the glass, allowing 13 offensive rebounds to their rivals which was the key factor as both teams played some good offense.
Chris Duarte led the way for Oregon with 27 points, six boards, and four steals, and the 6-foot-6 senior guard is averaging 17.7 points and 4.9 rebounds on the season. He’s a go-to-guy for the Ducks this term alongside another senior, Eugene Omoruyi (18.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG).
Oregon is No. 26 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings and No. 17 in the KenPom rankings. The Ducks tally 112.3 points per 100 possessions (21st in the nation) while yielding 91.9 in a return (25th). They play at a steady pace of 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes (133rd).
Utah wants to stop a two-game skid
The Utah Utes (4-3; 1-2 Conf.) have dropped two straight games, suffering a 72-70 loss at UCLA on New Year’s Eve and a 64-46 defeat at USC this past Saturday. The Utes battled bravely against the Bruins, but they had an awful shooting night at Galen Center in their first outing in 2021.
Utah made only 27.9% of its field goals and 13.6% of its 3-pointers against USC while allowing the Trojans to shoot 53.2% from the field. Senior guard Alfonso Plummer (14.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG) and junior forward Timmy Allen (14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) lead the way for Utah this season, but they combined for just 12 points against USC.
The Utes are No. 110 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 68 in the KenPom rankings. They prefer to play at a very slow pace, averaging 67.0 possessions per 40 minutes (301st). Utah scores 108.1 points per 100 possessions (64th) and yields 96.1 in a return (73rd).
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/utah” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Oregon:
- 11-6 ATS in the last 17 games overall
- 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 games against Utah
Utah:
- 2-4 ATS in the last six games overall
- 5-11 ATS in the last 16 outings as underdogs
The Winner Prediction
The Ducks have owned the Utes over the last ten years and are 17-2 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in their previous 19 head-to-head duels. Also, the Ducks are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Salt Lake City.
For the first time this season, the Utes will take on the top-25 team in the country, and I don’t think they are good enough to upset the odds. The Ducks will be fired up to bounce back from a tough loss at Colorado, as the visitors wants to remain in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Oregon loves to play aggressive defense, and the Ducks are a physically stronger team than Utah. They certainly possess more offensive talent, so give me the Oregon Ducks to win and cover.
Pick: Take Oregon -3.5 at -110
The Total:
If they want to stand a chance against Oregon, the Utes have to slow down things as much as they can while finding the best possible shots against the Ducks’ stout defense. I’m not sure they will be able to do it, but the Utes could struggle to surpass a 60-point mark if they start to struggle with their shot selection.
Therefore, I’m backing the under on the totals. The under is 12-3 in the last 15 encounters between Oregon and Utah, while the previous four produced fewer than 140 points in total.
Pick: Go under 139.5 points at -110
