The Sweet Sixteen battle between the No. 12 Oregon Ducks (25-12) and the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (31-3) will take place at KFC Yum! Center. Virginia opened as an 8.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 119 points. Action gets underway at 9:57 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 28, 2019.
Oregon Ducks vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Preview
In the Second Round, the Ducks dismantled the No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters, 73-54. Payton Pritchard was the game’s leading scorer with 18 points on 7-for-18 shooting. The Ducks had a turnover percentage of 10.1 (better than their season average of 15.7) and held the Anteaters to an effective field goal percentage of 0.441 (below their season average of 0.517).
The Cavaliers will look to keep it rolling after defeating the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners in the Second Round, 63-51. With 14 points on 7-for-9 shooting, Mamadi Diakite was the game’s high scorer. Virginia dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.8 (below their season average of 30.3) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.545 (below their season average of 0.558). For those same stats, Oklahoma had marks of 17.6 and 0.442, respectively.
This battle pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Virginia currently ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Ducks, who rank 254th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.213), could struggle to get to the line against the Cavaliers, who rank 17th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.176).
Of Oregon’s 37 games, 23 have finished under the projected point total, while 18 of Virginia’s 34 games have finished under the projected point total. The Cavaliers come into this game with much better straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 31-3 SU and 24-10 ATS, while the Ducks are 25-12 SU and 22-15 ATS.
Oregon Ducks vs. Virginia Cavaliers Odds Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Under
The Cavaliers rank seventh in rebounds allowed per game (29.5) while the Ducks rank 63rd (32.8).
Oregon ranks 45th in blocks per game (4.4) while Virginia ranks 88th (3.9).
Oregon ranks 36th in steals per game (7.7) while Virginia ranks 193rd (5.8).
The Cavaliers rank 114th in three pointers allowed per game (21.5) while the Ducks rank 239th (24.0).
Virginia ranks first in assists allowed per game (8.8) while Oregon ranks 62nd (11.6).
The Cavaliers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.4, down from 16.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Ducks have scored an average of 71.6 points per game (1.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 57.0 points per game (5.5 below their season average).