The Oklahoma Sooners head to Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, on Wednesday night to face off against the No. 2 Baylor Bears who are still undefeated this CBB season, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick and tips for this Big 12 showdown along with the latest odds update on Sugarhouse Sportsbook.
The Sooners are winless in five straight encounters with the Bears, and the bookies are pretty sure Baylor will be victorious once more. However, the Sooners have been playing well lately and will try their best to upset the second-best team in the country.
Oklahoma is 1-1 against the ranked teams this term
The Oklahoma Sooners (6-2; 2-1 Conf.) have met a couple of ranked teams in their previous two outings, suffering a 69-67 defeat to No. 15 Texas Tech as 2.5-point home dogs and outlasting No. 9 West Virginia 75-71 as 1.5-point home favorites.
The Sooners are now No. 47 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 44 in the latest KenPom rankings. They tally 112.3 points per 100 possessions, enough for the 15th-most in the country, but the Sooners allow 95.4 points in a return (64th-best in the country).
Oklahoma’s defense is a problem, allowing its opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers (330th). Also, the Sooners surrender 12.3 free-throw attempts per game which are the seventh-most in the nation. Senior guard Austin Reaves leads the way for Oklahoma with 15.5 points, 5.0 boards, and 5.4 assists per contest, while senior F Brady Manek adds 13.6 points and 4.6 rebounds a night.
Baylor hasn’t played the ranked team since December
The Sooners are not a top-25 team, but the Baylor Bears (9-0; 2-0 Conf.) hasn’t met a tougher rival since outlasting No. 5 Illinois 82-69 on December 2, 2020. After seven consecutive ATS wins, the Bears have failed to cover twice in a row, coming off a 76-65 victory at the Iowa State Cyclones as 15.5-point road favorites.
Baylor remains No. 2 in both NCAA NET Rankings and KenPom rankings. The Bears are scoring 119.4 points per 100 possessions (3rd) while yielding 88.8 points to their opponents (6th). They shoot 51.6% from the field (13th) and 43.8% from downtown (1st).
Junior guard Jared Butler drives the Bears’ offense, posting 16.0 points and 5.8 assists per game. Senior guard MaCio Teague averages 15.9 points and 4.4 rebounds, while sophomore forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua adds 9.9 points and 8.0 boards coming off the bench.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/baylor” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Oklahoma:
- 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine games against Baylor
- 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 road games
- 7-2 ATS in nine games this season
- 7-2 ATS in the last nine games as double-digit favorites
- 12-2 ATS in the last 14 tilts played in January
The Winner Prediction
The Bears opened as 11-point favorites, and I would buy a few points, just in case of some crazy scenario. Let’s make this one clear. The Bears are a much better team than Oklahoma, but they’ll also have a bad day in the office at some point. Hopefully, it won’t be this Wednesday.
Baylor should easily cover a 9.5-point spread. The Bears have great depth; they can play aggressive defense, while Baylor’s offense should be way too much for Oklahoma’s D. The Sooners have really played well recently but will need a lot of luck and hot shooting to keep the pace with Baylor.
Pick: Take Baylor -9.5 at -143
I would stick with the hosts to cover and avoid the totals because the line is a tricky one at 151.5 points and both teams play at a steady pace, averaging just above 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Furthermore, Baylor is an elite offensive team, and Oklahoma possesses some dangerous weapons, but I’m not sure they’ll combine for 152 or more points.
The under is 10-5 in Baylor’s last 15 outings as a fave of 11 or fewer points, 4-1 in Oklahoma’s previous five showings, and 8-1 in the last nine encounters between the Bears and Sooners.
I’m sticking with the betting trends, If they want to upset the odds here, the Sooners have to take good care of the ball and bring their best defensive game.
Pick: Go under 151.5 points at -110