Michigan State is no stranger to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament, but they are not accustomed to being the underdog there. On Saturday, they play the role of underdog against the Purdue Boilermakers, who are still fighting for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. In our college basketball picks, we look at Saturday’s Michigan State vs Purdue matchup in the Big Ten semifinals.
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Michigan State vs Purdue Betting Pick
This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, March 12, 2022.
Why Bet On Purdue:
✅ Michigan State has won their lone meeting with Purdue this season, winning at home against the Boilermakers in a tight game. But Purdue shot a miserable 11% from three-point range in that game, while Michigan State shot over 40% from deep. Those numbers will even out here, and Purdue will benefit with a win and a cover.
✅ One thing that will not regress in this game is the play of Zach Edey for the Boilermakers. He scored 25 points against the Spartans in their lone meeting in the regular season, and Michigan State does not have the bodies to stop him on the interior. Edey will have another big game here, and the Boilermakers will cover the spread.
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✅ The turnover numbers from the first matchup between these teams will also even out in this contest. Purdue turned the ball over 17 times, compared to just 10 for Michigan State, and the Spartans will likely not enjoy the same turnover disparity this time around. If they cannot rely on their turnover advantage, Michigan State could really struggle to keep up with the Boilermakers.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State has gone 2-0 so far at the Big Ten tournament, beating Maryland and Wisconsin to get to the semifinal round. The Spartans overcame a miserable three-point shooting performance against Wisconsin to get to the semifinals, as they made under 10% of their long-distance shots for the game. That is something they absolutely must address if the Spartans want to take down Purdue.
Purdue has a gifted big in Zach Edey, who will be able to change shots from the Spartans in the paint. That will make three-point shooting a huge priority for the Spartans, especially after a terrible shooting game against Wisconsin.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue took care of business against Penn State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament, winning 69-61 over the Nittany Lions. Purdue was efficient from the floor against Penn State, making half of their field goal attempts in a relatively comfortable win down the stretch. In this game, the Boilermakers will need to limit Michigan State from the perimeter to maximize their chances to make it to the conference championship game.
There are no circumstances where Michigan State will get the better of things in the paint against Purdue. Therefore, the Spartans will need to make up the difference from the perimeter to keep themselves in this matchup. Purdue will need to stay attached to shooters and prevent the Spartans from keeping themselves afloat with their shooting.