The notion seems crazy. In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, there has only been one time where a 16-seed defeated a 1-seed. Five have come within four points of pulling off an epic upset. But over the years, 1-seeds have compiled a pretty impressive record of 139-1.
So why on Earth would anyone in their right mind even consider putting money down on a 16-seed defeating a 1-seed this year?
Apparently, PointsBet.com thinks a few fans might be. They are offering a unique tournament prop:
- #16 Seed to Beat a #1 Seed in NCAA Tournament +800
For something that has only happened once and come close just five other times, you would think those odds would be a little longer. We are talking about one of the four best teams in the nation falling to a team best described as ‘okay’ on a good day on the biggest stage in basketball.
Yes, it could happen. But at +800 it just doesn’t seem worth it. However, when you consider how often ranked teams have fallen to unranked teams this season, it doesn’t sound like such a crazy idea. Just last weekend, four top-ten teams went down– three to unranked opponents.
Earlier this season, mighty Kentucky fell to lowly Evansville. At the time, the Wildcats were the No. 1 team in the nation (one of eight this season). The Purple Aces were 1-0 and got off to a solid 9-4 start—but then lost every conference game.
Duke’s tenure at No. 1 earlier this season ended after a loss to Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are the best team in the Southland Conference, but the Southland doesn’t exactly compare to the ACC.
A few weeks later, Louisville’s time at the top came to an end following a loss to Texas Tech. If you imagine the Red Raiders as the team that made it to the national title game last year, this loss doesn’t look too bad. But Texas Tech is an 18-12 squad this year.
Top-ranked teams have fallen to unranked teams a lot this season. So, surely there is a chance one of the 1-seeds falls in the first round—right?
It depends on who the 1-seeds are, of course, with the likely candidates being Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton, and San Diego State. Kansas is the only one of the group that only lost to unranked teams. Baylor and San Diego State each lost to at least one team that is probably not going to make the Tournament.
Dayton has been on a roll and doesn’t look like a team capable of being upset. Gonzaga has not played too many tough teams, but they have handled most of the teams they have played—some of who could see action against a top-seed in the opening round.
So, there are a couple of good candidates, Baylor and San Diego State. But are they good enough candidates at +800? Absolutely not.
Take this one only (and I mean only) as part of a parlay so that you can really pump up the payout. But don’t risk much and be prepared to lose.