The Big 12 Conference play continues Tuesday night at Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas, so here’s my best betting pick for the Iowa Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns showdown along with the latest odds update on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Cyclones have beaten Texas in their previous encounter, but the Longhorns are 6-2 straight up in their last eight matchups with Iowa State. Texas enters Tuesday’s game as the No. 4 in the AP Top 25 Poll and a massive fave to outlast the Cyclones.
Iowa State meets another top-5 team
The Iowa State Cyclones (2-5, 0-3 Conf.) are coming off a 76-65 home loss to the No. 2 Baylor Bears this past Saturday. They put on a fight and covered a 15.5-point spread, but the Cyclones didn’t really stand a chance against the mighty Bears.
Back in December, the Cyclones suffered a couple of losses to the ranked teams. They got routed by the No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes 105-77 while covering a 15-point spread at No. 8 West Virginia. Iowa State is No. 92 in the KenPom rankings and No. 209 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings.
Four Iowa State players average points in double digits, and junior guard Rasir Bolton leads the way with 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per contest. The Cyclones are 89th in the country in points scored per 100 possessions (105.8) and 94th in points allowed per 100 possessions (97.2).
Texas aims for its fifth straight win
The Texas Longhorns (8-1; 2-0 Conf.) are rolling on a four-game win streak following a tremendous 84-59 victory at the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks this past Saturday. It was another dominant defensive performance by the Longhorns who limited Kansas to just 30.8% shooting from the field, but Shaka Smart’s boys did a terrific offensive job, too.
Junior guard Courtney Ramey scored 18 points against the Jayhawks, while senior PG Matt Coleman III had 13 points and six assists. The Longhorns made 12 of their 26 attempts from beyond the arc (46.2%), while they’re shooting 34.5% from deep on the season (141st in the country).
Texas is now sixth in the KenPom rankings, posting the fourth-best defensive rating of 87.0 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Longhorns score 112.3 in a return (15th) on 44.9% shooting from the field (153rd). They are No. 9 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/texas” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Iowa State:
- 2-5 ATS in seven games this season
- 2-7 ATS in the last nine games against Texas
- 5-0 ATS in the last five home games against Iowa State
- 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games overall
The Winner Prediction
Iowa State dismantled Texas 81-52 back in February 2020, so the Longhorns must be fired up to get revenge. Hereof, I’m not concerned about the eventual hangover following that remarkable performance at the Jayhawks.
The momentum is on Texas’ side, and the Longhorns should easily shut down the Cyclones’ offense. The hosts possess plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, so this 13.5-point spread won’t be a problem, especially if the Hawkeyes continue to play mediocre offense.
Pick: Take Texas -13.5 at +100
The previous three encounters between the Cyclones and Longhorns went in the over, but the under is 4-4 over the last eight. Also, the Cyclones’ last three games went in the under, as well as five of Texas’ last seven tilts overall.
If they want to upset the odds here, the Cyclones have to play exceptionally well on both sides of the ball. However, they could easily struggle to surpass a 60-point mark against Texas’ defense, while the Longhorns limited their opponents below 65 points in three of their last four showings.
Pick: Go under 139.5 points at -110