The Northern Kentucky Norse (21-9, 13-5 Hor) square off against the Green Bay Phoenix (17-15, 12-7 Hor) in the Horizon Conference Tourney at Indiana Farmers Coliseum. The game can be seen on ESPN2 at 9:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 9, 2020.
Northern Kentucky opened as a 5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 151 points at all online sportsbooks.
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Northern Kentucky Norse Free Prediction
The Phoenix will be hoping for a similar outcome after easily covering the 4-point spread against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in their last outing, 78-63. The game’s combined points (141) came in well under the O/U total of 156. The Phoenix forced 17 turnovers and held the Golden Grizzlies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.412 (below their season average of 0.486). Green Bay rallied around Amari Davis, who was the top scorer from either team with 19 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
In the Norse’s last game, they lost a tough one to the Wright State Raiders, 64-62, despite being 2.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (126) were well under the O/U total of 148. Wright State’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Northern Kentucky. The Raiders had a rate of 41.0 (above their season average of 32.4), while the Norse posted a mark of 31.8. Jalen Tate had a good game for Northern Kentucky, leading both teams in scoring with 24 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
The offensive glass should be a huge advantage for Northern Kentucky in this showdown. The Norse are among the nation’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 90th in offensive rebounding percentage at 31.0 percent. Meanwhile, Green Bay ranks 306th in the nation at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 69.1 percent.
Green Bay comes into the game with records of 17-15 straight up (SU) and 15-14-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Phoenix are playing, as 18 of their 30 games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Northern Kentucky owns records of 21-9 SU and 15-12-1 ATS. Unlike Green Bay, Norse games have a tendency to go under the projected point total (57.1 percent).
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Northern Kentucky Norse ATS Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Northern Kentucky, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Northern Kentucky averages 13.8 assists per game, which ranks 92nd in the country. Green Bay ranks 229th in assists allowed per game (14.5).
Northern Kentucky is 6-7 ATS at home, while Green Bay is 11-7 ATS on the road.
In its last five contests, Green Bay is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Northern Kentucky is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Phoenix’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.0, up from 1.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Norse have scored an average of 64.6 points per game (7.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.0 points per game (0.3 below their season average).