The college basketball betting action goes on with the Mountain West Conference showdown at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Friday night, so here’s my best Fresno State vs. Nevada betting pick along with the latest odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
Last season, Nevada barely outlasted Fresno State 78-76 as a 7.5-point home fave. It was the Wolf Pack’s sixth straight victory over the Bulldogs, so it’s no strange the hosts opened as firm favorites for Friday’s clash despite their poor form.
The Bulldogs start a four-game road trip
The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3; 3-3 Conf.) have just finished their four-game homestand and will play their next four contests away from home. They are coming off an 80-65 victory to the San Jose State Spartans as 14-point favorites, extending their winning streak to three games.
The Bulldogs are now No. 197 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 167 in the latest KenPom rankings. They score 101.1 points per 100 possessions (176th in the country) while yielding 101.4 to their opponents (157th).
Sophomore forward Orlando Robinson is a key player for this Fresno State team. The 7-footer is averaging a double-double of 18.1 points and 10.6 rebounds while shooting 52.0% from the field. Junior guard Deon Stroud tallies 13.9 points and 3.6 boards per game, while sophomore PG Isaiah Hill adds 10.9 points and 3.3 assists a night.
The Wolf Pack look to get things going on the home court
The Nevada Wolf Pack (8-5; 3-3 Conf.) are coming off a two-game set at the San Diego State Aztecs, suffering a couple of losses, 69-67 and 65-60, but still covering a double-digit spread on both occasions. They’ve dropped three of their last five games overall, going 4-1 ATS in the process.
Nevada is now No. 128 in the NCAA NET Rankings, while the Wolf Pack sit at the 115th spot of the latest KenPom rankings. They score 103.9 points per 100 possessions (124th in the country) while surrendering 98.7 in a return (114th).
Sophomore guard Grant Sherfield leads the way for Nevada this season, averaging 17.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game while making 41.1% of his 3-pointers. Junior guard Desmond Cambridge has 15.5 points, 4.0 boards, and 2.5 dimes per game, while sophomore 7-footer Warren Washington adds 8.2 points and 5.3 boards per contest.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/nevada” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Fresno State:
- 2-4 ATS in the last six games against Nevada
- 3-6 ATS in the last nine showings as underdogs
- 6-1 ATS in the last seven games overall
- 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Mountain West
The Winner Prediction
The Wolf Pack will be keen to snap their skid. On paper, they are a better team than Fresno State, and the hosts certainly have enough big bodies to deal with Orlando Robinson. Slowing him down will be a key factor for Nevada, while I also think the hosts will dominate the Bulldogs’ defense.
Fresno State is far away from an elite offensive team. If they cannot use their best player frequently, the visitors will be in big trouble Friday night. Give me Nevada to win and cover.
Pick: Take Nevada -6.5 at -110
The over has hit in seven of Nevada’s last nine games, as the Wolf Pack love to push the ball in transition, averaging 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes (105th in the nation). On the other side, the under is 3-2-1 in Fresno State’s last six outings, and the Bulldogs prefer to play at a very slow pace of 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes (313th).
Interestingly, the over is 17-3 in the last 20 encounters between Fresno State and Nevada, and I’m going to follow this trend. The visitors will be constantly trying to slow things down,
Pick: Go over 136.5 points at -110