The Fresno State Bulldogs meet the Boise State Broncos for the first time this season on Wednesday, January 20, so here’s the best betting pick for this Mountain West Conference showdown at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho.
The Bulldogs and Broncos split their last four encounters, while Boise State thrashed off Fresno State 87-53 as a 1-point road underdog in their last season’s duel. The Broncos opened as double-digit favorites for this matchup on the home court, according to Sugarhouse Sportsbook.
Fresno State hopes to stop a two-game skid
The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5; 3-5 Conf.) are coming off a two-game series at the Nevada Wolf Pack. They lost on both occasions, failing to cover a 5.5-point spread in a 73-57 defeat and a 6.5-point spread in a 79-65 loss.
The Bulldogs are now the No. 225 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings. They score only 100.4 points per 100 possessions (200th in the country) on 44.2% shooting from the field (179th) and 30.6% from beyond the arc (276th). Fresno State has struggled on the defensive end, too, yielding 102.0 points per 100 possessions (169th).
Sophomore forward Orlando Robinson is the key player for the Bulldogs this season. The 7-footer is tallying 17.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game while shooting 51.7% from the field and 60.6% from the line. Sophomore PG Isaiah Hill averages 11.5 points and 3.3 assists, while junior guard Deon Stroud adds 13.1 points a night.
Boise State aims for its 13th consecutive victory
The Boise State Broncos (12-1; 8-0 Conf.) are undefeated since the opener and a 68-58 loss at the No. 17 Houston Cougars, topping the Mountain West Conference standings alongside the Utah State Aggies. They are coming off a two-game set at Wyoming, outlasting the Cowboys 83-60 as 7.5-point road favorites and 90-70 as 8.5-point road favorites.
The Broncos are No. 15 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 56 in the latest KenPom rankings. They tally 110.4 points per 100 possessions (50th) on 48.2% shooting from the field (42nd) while yielding 96.8 points in a return (81st) on 39.3% shooting from the field (33rd).
Senior guard Derrick Alston leads the way for the Broncos, posting 16.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, while three more guys average points in double figures. Junior guard Devonaire Doutrive has returned from an injury, and he’s tallying 12.5 points and 3.8 boards a night.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/boise_state” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Fresno State:
- 3-7 ATS in the last ten games overall
- 3-7 ATS in the last ten games against Mountain West
- 1-5 ATS in the last six outings as underdogs
- 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 games overall
- 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 outings as favorites
The Broncos are one of the most pleasant surprises of the college basketball season, and if they continue to play in the same manner, the Bulldogs will be in big trouble. Although their defense is not an elite one, the Broncos work hard which should be just enough against the Bulldogs’ hapless offense.
Furthermore, the Broncos’ offense should torture Fresno State’s D. Boise State is 17-1 straight up and 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 outings on the home court, so give me the Broncos to cover once more.
Pick: Take Boise State -14.0 at -110
The Broncos play at a steady pace of 69.7 possessions per 40 minutes (146th in the nation), while the Bulldogs tally 66.5 (294th). The visitors need to slow down things as much as they can and try to execute well offensively, so I’m backing the under, considering how poor their offense is.
The under has hit in four of the last five matchups between the Bulldogs and Broncos, and four of those five contests produced fewer than 140 points in total. Six of Boise State’s last nine games went in the under, as well as three of Fresno State’s previous four tilts.
Pick: Go under 140.0 points at -110