The No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (22-3, 12-2 ACC) will try to extend their seven-game winning streak against the North Carolina State Wolfpack (16-9, 7-7 ACC) at PNC Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 19, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Duke is an 8-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 149 points at PointsBet on the Iowa Sports Betting App.
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina State Wolfpack Free Prediction
The Blue Devils will be looking for a similar outcome after comfortably covering the 11-point spread against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last matchup, 94-60. The game’s total points (154) came in just over the O/U total of 151. The Blue Devils, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.535, had a ridiculous mark of 0.638, while the Fighting Irish had a turnover percentage of 17.0 (above their season average of 12.3). Duke received a boost from Tre Jones, who recorded 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists.
In the Wolfpack’s last matchup, they let one slip away to the Boston College Eagles, 71-68, despite being 4-point favorites. The game’s combined points (139) finished just under the O/U total of 141.5. Making free throws was one of Boston College’s largest advantages. They were 15-18 (83.3 percent), while the Wolfpack were 12-16 (75.0 percent). Devon Daniels had a solid performance for North Carolina State, leading the team in scoring with 15 points on 6-for-14 shooting.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball security could play an integral role in this matchup. North Carolina State commits the 52nd-fewest miscues in the country (turnover percentage of 17.0 percent), while the pesky defense of Duke forces the 56th-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 21.9 percent). Additionally, the Blue Devils, who rank 17th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.4 percent), will try to take advantage of the Wolfpack, who rank 262nd in defensive rebounding percentage (70.3 percent).
Duke holds records of 22-3 straight up (SU) and 13-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Blue Devils are playing, as 17 of their 25 games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, North Carolina State is 16-9 SU and 12-12-1 ATS. Contrary to Duke, Wolfpack games have typically finished under the O/U total (64.0 percent).
After the Blue Devils won the only game against the Wolfpack last season, 94-78, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Blue Devils knocked down 21 of their 28 free throws (75.0 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 14.3).
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack ATS Pick
Basketball Prediction: ATS Winner – Duke, O/U – Over
On the road, Duke is 6-4 ATS with 6 overs and 4 unders.
At home, North Carolina State is 6-7-1 ATS with 11 unders and 3 overs.
Duke averages 39.8 rebounds per game, which ranks 19th in the nation. North Carolina State ranks 222nd in rebounds allowed per game (36.8).
The Wolfpack average 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 58th in the NCAA. The Blue Devils rank 196th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
North Carolina State averages 4.6 blocks per game, which ranks 32nd in the nation. Duke ranks 147th in blocks allowed per game (3.8).
The Blue Devils rank 15th in assists per game (16.3) while the Wolfpack rank 125th (13.3).
Duke ranks eighth in three pointers allowed per game (16.4) while North Carolina State ranks 61st (19.7).
Over its last five games, Duke is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
North Carolina State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Blue Devils’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.6, down from 17.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Wolfpack have scored an average of 70.4 points per game (3.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.8 points per game (4.6 above their season average).