In their final home game of the season, the Rhode Island Rams (20-8, 12-4 A10) host the No. 3 Dayton Flyers (27-2, 16-0 A10) at Thomas M. Ryan Center. The game will air on CBS Sports Network at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 145.5 points with Dayton set as a 4-point favorite at Sugarhouse Sportsbook & Casino.
Dayton Flyers vs. Rhode Island Rams Betting Prediction
The Flyers come in on a high note after easily covering the 3-point spread against the Davidson Wildcats in their last contest, 82-67. The game’s combined points (149) finished over the O/U total of 140. Dayton’s 29.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Davidson, who had a mark of 13.3. The Flyers’ mark was above their season average of 26.6, while the Wildcats’ was below their season average of 25.1. With 23 points on 10-for-11 shooting, Obi Toppin was the top scorer from either team.
The last time the Rams played, they fell to the Saint Louis Billikens, 72-62, despite being 6-point favorites. The total points for the game (134) finished under the projected point total of 139. Saint Louis’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Rhode Island. The Billikens had a rate of 43.3 (above their season average of 34.2), while the Rams posted a mark of 22.5 (below their season average of 30.7). With 17 points on 5-for-16 shooting, Fatts Russell was the game’s high scorer.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Toppin scored a game-high 22 points and the Flyers beat the Rams 81-67, covering as 10.5-point favorites. He also put up 10 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 148 points, which was just 1 points above the projected point total of 147 points. Dayton had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.546 vs. 0.311). Rhode Island, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (7.8 vs. 17.6).
Dayton heads into the game with records of 27-2 straight up (SU) and 17-12 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers tend to place the total low when the Flyers are involved, as 17 of their 29 games have ended over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Rhode Island is 20-8 SU and 14-13-1 ATS. In opposition of Dayton, games featuring the Rams have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (53.6 percent).
It will be a matchup of contrasting paces as the fast-breaking Rams will look to push the more half-court-oriented Flyers. The Rams rank 46th in possessions per game while the Flyers are 205th. Also, the Flyers rank second in offensive efficiency (116.3), while the Rams rank 45th in defensive efficiency (94.5).
Dayton vs. Rhode Island Free Pick
College Basketball Prediction: ATS Winner – Rhode Island, O/U – Over
Dayton is 7-6 ATS on the road with 8 overs and 5 unders.
Rhode Island is 5-8-1 ATS at home with 10 unders and 4 overs.
Dayton ranks 31st in rebounds allowed per game (31.5) while Rhode Island ranks 260th (38.0).
The Flyers rank third in assists per game (17.6) while the Rams rank 171st in assists allowed per game (13.1).
Rhode Island ranks 16th in steals per game (8.7) while Dayton ranks 167th (5.8).
The Flyers rank 42nd in three pointers allowed per game (18.7) while the Rams rank 187th (22.4).
Dayton ranks 41st in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while Rhode Island ranks 106th (3.3).
Over its last five outings, Dayton is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Rhode Island is 1-3-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Flyers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.0, down from 14.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rams have scored an average of 70.6 points per game (3.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 72.0 points per game (3.5 above their season average).