We’re limping to the finish of the college basketball season, dropping the last two plays in pretty ugly fashion to fall to 92-81 on the season, so we’ll end the year with a slight profit, although not quite as good as we’ve fared the last few seasons. A lot of times, the numbers were better than I was, so there was some value in the articles even when the selections missed, as was the case Saturday, when the numbers really liked the UCLA vs. Gonzaga game to go over the total, but I stayed away and took the wrong side. Anyway, enough jabber and let’s get to the title game.
Gonzaga opened as 5-point favorites and the line is now down to 4.5, while the total is down a half-point to 159.5. The first half line is 2.5 and 76. I have the Bulldogs leading 40-39 at the half on their way to an 83-81 victory, so am going to take the Bears +4.5 in this one.
In the write-up for the UCLA vs. Gonzaga game I mentioned the Bruins needed to hit some 3-pointers to stay in the game and UCLA was 8 for 17 from long range, which kept them in the game better than most people thought they were capable of, myself included. The Bulldogs aren’t necessarily bad defending the 3-pointer, but it is their weakest link and if there’s one thing the Bears can do, it’s shoot the 3-pointer.
Baylor was No. 1 in the country with a 41.2% shooting percentage from long range and the Bears aren’t afraid to shoot from beyond the arc, putting up more than 24 per game. The Zags average 20.5 per game.
The Bears do allow some offensive rebounds, although Gonzaga doesn’t really excel there, so Baylor could be able to limit Gonzaga’s second chances. The Bears are pretty good at generating offensive rebounds, while the Bulldogs have done a good job of preventing them.
These are the two best offensive teams in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, who gives the Bulldogs a little bit of an edge on defense, although when you factor in the level of competition, it’s pretty close to being even.
This has all the makings of a great game, although things seldom play out exactly as you think. Still, on paper, at least, this is one that could go down to the wire and the points could come into play.
4/3/21
The two Final Four games tip-off today and the championship game is Monday, so we’re down to two days of college basketball remaining. Even though the games are big, that doesn’t necessarily mean your wagers have to be, as these are usually the toughest game to find much of an edge on.
Have struggled a little bit in the tournament, dropping the overall record to 92-80 for the season, so will see what we can do these last two days. We’ll keep the streak of winning seasons alive, although the results weren’t quite as good as the past few seasons, so hopefully we can get back to fans at games and fewer teams playing back-to-back days against the same opponent next season and see something of a return to normalcy.
Houston vs. Baylor: This one should be a decent game here, where the Bears are favored by 5 and the total is 134.5, while the first-half spread is Baylor -2.5 and the total is 62. I have Houston leading this one 33-31 at the half and winning 69-68, so going to take a shot on the Cougars +5 in this one. The Cougars get an edge on defense, while Baylor is definitely the better offensive team of the two. Surprisingly, Houston shoots free throws better than Baylor, but the Bears have the edge from the floor. Baylor has played tougher teams in the tournament and get a strength of schedule edge, while the Cougars have a slight edge in scoring margin. The teams both played Texas Tech, with the Bears winning by 8 and by 15, while Houston won by 11, so no real advantage there.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are favored by 14.5 with a total of 145 and by 8 in the first half with a total of 69, while I have GU leading 42-33 on its way to an 84-72 victory. The numbers like the over here, but it’s a bit tough to take overs the way the tournament has played out lately. The Bruins are going to have to make some 3-pointers to keep in this one and that’s something they do fairly well. It will be interesting to see if the Bruins try to slow the pace down more than usual. UCLA did lose both games to Southern Cal and we just saw what Gonzaga did to the Trojans, so hard to fault anybody who likes the Bulldogs in this one.
3/30/21
We moved to 92-79 on the season last night, as the Cougars got the job done in the first half, one of the rare times I’ve been able to correctly make the call on a first-half or full-game wager. I’ve been even worse in the NBA, choosing the half when it should be the full game and betting the full game when I should be on the half.
Last night’s two games really came right down to the wire, at least as far as the spread goes, so hopefully you came out on the right side.
USC vs. Gonzaga: The Zags just hit 8.5 and I took the Trojans at +10 when it first came out, but will stick with Southern Cal +8.5 here. Gonzaga has been impressive so far in the tournament, while you can say the same about Southern Cal, but USC is probably the best defensive team Gonzaga has faced this season. If you look at Gonzaga’s wins against top teams this season, most of them have been offense oriented, such as Iowa and West Virginia. The Bulldogs are No. 1 in the country in 2-point field goal percentage, while the Trojans are No. 1 in 2-point defense. One of USC’s biggest faults this year has been foul shooting, but the officials are letting them play for the most part and that shouldn’t come into play too much. Tough game, but I have Gonzaga winning 80-74, so will take the points.
UCLA vs. Michigan: The Wolverines are favored by 6.5 with a total of 135.5 and I have Michigan coming out with a 73-68 win, so a slight lean to the Bruins and the numbers like the over a little bit, but in no rush to bet the total of this one. Both teams play at a bit of a slow pace, so possessions could be down a little bit. The Wolverines are better offensively and defensively, but the Bruins are pretty close on the offensive side of things. UCLA has needed a couple of overtime victories to reach this point, but have gotten the job done after laboring down the stretch and losing four straight games. Tough game to play and am just going to stay clear of this one and possibly add something during the game.
3/29/21
Terrible loss with Memphis in the first half yesterday, as the Tigers piddled away a 9-point lead with less than three minutes remaining, which turned out to be the difference between a winning day and a losing one, as the other four plays split. Dropped down to 91-79 after an ugly two-day run and just have the two games on the schedule for Monday.
Oregon State vs. Houston: The Cougars are favored by 7.5 and the total is now 129.5 and I have Houston winning this one 70-59. The Beavers get a pretty decent strength of schedule edge here, once again being consistently raised by Ken Pomeroy after the Pac-12 Conference has run through the tournament field, pulling off quite a few upsets, although can’t see that happening in this one, as the Cougars are the best team the Beavers have faced all season. Still, hard to believe a missed free throw by UCLA in the conference tournament is what helped Oregon State get here, otherwise they likely would have been in the NIT – maybe. The Cougars are favored by 4 in the first half and the total is 59.5 and I have Houston leading 34-26 at the break, so going to go ahead and take a shot on Houston in the first half of this one.
Arkansas vs. Baylor: Baylor is favored by 8 and the total is 148.5 and I have the Bears winning 81-75, but no real interest in playing the total here, as we’ve seen some good defense and some poor shooting the past few days. Baylor is -4 with a first-half total of 70 and I have it 40-33 in favor of the Bears, so one of those games where the halftime margin is projected to be a little higher than the full-game margin. A lot of people like the Bears in this one, but Arkansas is capable of a decent game of it. This is one I’ll stay away from for now, but could possible make an in-game wager or play for fun shortly before tip-off depending on the outcome of the early game between Houston and Oregon State.
3/28/21
Coming off a brutal day in hoops, with the losses not even close. As happens far too often, you follow up a 3-0 day in college basketball with a dismal 1-4 effort. Nothing to do but march forward and look to do better. We fell to 90-77 after yesterday’s pathetic showing.
Florida State vs. Michigan: The Wolverines are favored by 2 with a total of 143 and I have Michigan winning 75-71. Michigan is favored by 1 with a total of 66 in the first half and I have the Seminoles leading 36-33, so going to take FSU +1 in the first half.
Oregon vs. USC: The Trojans are -2 with a total of 138 and I have Southern Cal winning by a 72-68 final. USC is favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 64 and I have USC leading 36-33, so going to take a shot on Southern Cal -1 in this one, as the Ducks get the slightest of edge offensively, but the Trojans have been better defensively.
UCLA vs. Alabama: Alabama has been bet up to 6.5 with a total of 145.5 and I have the Tide winning 75-71 in a game where Alabama is attracting some money. I have Alabama leading 36-34 at the break.
Gonzaga vs. Creighton: The Zags are favored by 13.5 and the total is 158.5, while I have the Bulldogs winning this one by an 86-75 final. I have this one at 44-36 at the half.
Louisiana Tech vs. Colorado State: Colorado State is favored by 1 and the total is 141 and I have CSU winning by a 68-67 final. No interest in the under here, as there’s no pressure on either team to win this one, as nobody really cares and about the third-place game. Wouldn’t be a total shock to see little defense played here.
Mississippi State vs. Memphis: The Tigers are favored by 4.5 with a total of 135 and I have the Tigers winning this one 66-61. Memphis is 2.5 in the first half with a total of 63 and I have the Tigers leading 32-28 at the half and am going to play Memphis in the first half here. Memphis was the biggest tournament snub and think they look to come out strong and make a statement here.
3/27/21
The Sweet 16 begins today and the two NIT semifinals are also on tap, so a pretty decent day of college basketball despite the relatively small schedule of games. We’re 89-73 on the season and have quite a few plays today, as we’ll just follow the numbers for the day.
Villanova vs. Baylor: The Bears are favored by 7.5 and the total is 142, while I have Baylor winning by a 77-71 final score. The Bears are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 65.5 and I have Baylor leading 38-31, so the halftime lead is actually larger than the full-game projection, although a bit of that is due to the Bears frequently playing bench players in the second half. Baylor’s defense gets plenty of attention, but their offense is No. 3 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive rankings, while the Wildcats are No. 6. Not really thrilled with it, but will go ahead and take the over 142 here.
Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas: The Razorbacks are favored by 11.5 with a total of 158 and I have Arkansas winning 91-77, so another play on the over in this one. Arkansas is favored by 6 in the first half with a total of 75 and I have it 41-39 in favor of Arkansas, so the numbers like the first half over and lean to the underdog.
Colorado State vs. Memphis: Memphis is favored by 4 with a total of 138 and I have Memphis winning 67-64, so will take the under in this one. I have the Tigers leading 34-29 at the break.
Mississippi State vs. La Tech: Mississippi State is favored by 1 with a total of 136.5 and I have this one at 65-65, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one.
Houston vs. Syracuse: The Cougars are favored by 6.5 with a total of 141 and I have Houston winning 74-63, so a play on Houston here. The numbers lean to the full-game under, although they have Houston leading 38-29 at the half, which is 1.5 points higher than the total. The Cougars have a 5.5-point edge in both the first half and full-game projections, but will stick with the full-game wagers for today.
Oregon State vs. Loyola: Loyola is favored by 7 with a total of 125 and I have the Ramblers winning 65-58, so pretty close to the lines. I have Loyola leading 32-26 at halftime. After the Pac-12 performance in the tournament, teams from the conference got a big boost IN Pomeroy’s strength of schedule numbers, so this one is projected to be a few points closer than it would have been a week ago.
3/25/21
Decent slate of college basketball games on tap for tonight after a break the last few days. Still at 86-73 on the season, as haven’t really had one big stretch all season where everything was going right. Will take a bit of a look at all four games on tap this evening.
Boise vs. Memphis: Probably the best game of the night, as Memphis is favored by 4 and the total on the game is 143. I have Memphis winning 69-66, so going to take a shot on the under, although Memphis has gotten me several times this season. In the first half, the Tigers are favored by 2.5 and the total is 67 and I have Memphis leading 35-30 at the break.
NC State vs. Colorado State: The Wolfpack is favored by 1.5 and the total is 146 and I have this one at 71-70 in favor of Colorado State. The Rams can play some defense, although they really didn’t show it too much against Buffalo, allowing them to shoot .54.8% on 2-pointers after holding teams to less than 50% during the season. N.C. State does get hurt at times allowing offensive rebounds, but that’s not a strength of Colorado State, so will go ahead and take the under in this one, as well.
Mississippi State vs. Richmond: Mississippi State is favored by 2.5 and the total is 136.5 and I have Richmond winning 69-68, so a little bit of a lean to the Spiders, although not enough of an edge to make Richmond a play. The Bulldogs are 1.5 in the first half with a total of 64 and I have it 33-33 at the break. Miss State does get a strength of schedule advantage, although not as great as one may thing, as they’ve played Ken Pomeroy’s 68th toughest schedule and Richmond has played No. 89.
Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky: This one sees La. Tech now favored by 1 with a total of 136.5 and I have La Tech winning 69-67, so nothing really happening there. The teams did play a couple of close games during the season, splitting a pair of games playing in back-to-back days on Western Kentucky’s home floor. Both games easily sailed under the total of 143 and then 140, as the finals were 66-64 and 63-58. This one is even in the first half with a total of 63.5 and I have La Tech leading 35-34, so going to take a shot on the over here even though we saw just 59 and 62 points in their first two meetings.
3/22/21
We fell to 86-72 on the season after a 1-1 day where I completely botched the plays here, which is going to happen from time to time, but a lot of the value in the daily articles come in the projections more than the actual plays. We’ll run down all of the games much like we did yesterday. Still getting a lot of calls on the overs, so thinking there should be some sort of projection reduction, much like you have to do in the NBA playoffs to an extent.
Colorado vs. Florida State: The Seminoles are favored by 1.5 with a total of 140.5 and I have Colorado winning 72-69, so not quite a play on the Buffs. The Pac-12 have been monsters so far this tournament, but think they’re going to see a few teams bounced out today. I have FSU leading 35-33 at the break.
USC vs. Kansas: I have this one close throughout, with USC winning 69-67 and leading 34-32 at the break. The Trojans are favored by 1 with a total of 134.5, so we’re pretty close to the lines.
Oregon vs. Iowa: The Hawkeyes are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 69.5 and I have Iowa leading 42-34 at the break, so will take Iowa -3 in the first half for our lone play of the day. The numbers also like the over in both the first half and the full game, while I have the Hawkeyes winning 81-74.
Maryland vs. Alabama: Alabama is favored by 5.5 with a total of 138.5 and I have the Tide winning 71-67. Alabama is -3 and 64.5 in the first half and I have Alabama leading 34-33.
LSU vs. Michigan: Michigan is favored by 2.5 with a total of 69.5 in the first half and I have the Wolverines ahead 38-36. The full-game line is Michigan -5 and 148.5 and I have Michigan winning 81-74.
Ohio vs. Creighton: Creighton is favored by 5.5 with a total of 149 and I have them winning 81-74, so a game where the numbers are calling for the over both in the full-game and in the first half, where I have Creighton leading 39-36 and the first-half total is 70.
Abilene Christian vs. UCLA: The Bruins have dropped to 4.5 with a total of 133.5 and I have UCLA pulling out a 68-67 win. Have lost a lot of value in Abilene, who was getting 8.5 against a Texas team that is pretty comparable to the Bruins. I have this one 33-33 at the half.
Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 14 with a total of 154.5 and I have this one 87-74 for Gonzaga. I have GU leading 42-33 at halftime.
3/21/21
We moved to 85-71 on the season in college basketball Saturday, although our play on VCU did get canceled, along with the remainder of the Rams’ season. Somewhat of a tough card today. While there were quite a few plays I liked Saturday that isn’t the case today.
Wisconsin vs. Baylor: The Bears are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 64 and I have Baylor leading 32-30 at the half. The full-game line is 6 and 137 and I have the Bears winning 73-67, so not a lot happening in this one.
North Texas vs. Villanova: Villanova is favored by 3 with a total of 59 and I have North Texas leading 32-31, so the numbers lean to the dog and the over a little bit. The Wildcats are 5.5 and 127 for the full game and I have Villanova winning 67-64.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas: Texas Tech is favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 65.5 and I have the Red Raiders leading 35-33. Tech is favored by 2 with a total of 141 and I have Arkansas winning 73-72, so slight leans to the underdog and the over.
Oral Roberts vs. Florida: The Gators are favored by 4.5 with a total of 69.5 and I have Florida leading 39-36 at the break, so the numbers like the over here, as they do the full-game over. Florida is 8.5 and 148.5 and I have UF winning 83-75. Tyree Appleby, the Gators’ third-leading scorer is questionable after being injured last game. Will take a shot on the over here, as Oral Roberts like to push the pace and aren’t all that great defensively.
Loyola vs. Illinois: The Illini are favored by 3.5 with a total of 62.5 and I have this one 31-31 at the half, so a lean to the Ramblers, but this one came down from 4 as I was writing. Points should be hard to come by in this one and think the teams try to get a feel for their instate foe early on. I have the Illini winning 68-64 and they’re favored by 7.5 with a total of 133.5
Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State: The Pac-12 has surprised a lot of people so far this tournament, myself included, and I have the Beavers keeping it close here, as Oklahoma is State is -6 with a total of 141 and I have the Cowboys winning 74-71.
Syracuse vs. West Virginia: West Virginia is -2 and 69 in the first half and I have the Mountaineers leading 38-35, so taking a shot on the over 69 here. I have West Virginia winning 78-75, which is a 6-point difference to the over.
Rutgers vs. Houston: The Cougars are -4.5 and 61.5 in the first half and I have Houston leading 35-27. The Cougars are -8 and 132 for the full game and I have Houston winning 70-59.
3/20/21
A disappointing 1-2 on Friday after Villanova got a little careless in the final stretch of the first half to fall to 83-70 on the season. I did make a couple of adjustments to the numbers, mainly in the AOPR figures, which will lessen the impact strength of schedule has to an extent and help eliminate the larger conference teams from being selected the vast majority of the time. To give an example, I’ll use the Eastern Washington vs. Kansas game.
During the regular season I use 80 as a base and add 80 to all teams and use Ken Pomeroy’s strength of schedule ratings. That gives a prediction of 88-58. Yesterday I bumped it to 100, which yields an 84-61 final score, which is a little closer. Today I moved it to 200 and the 78-66 projection is fairly close to the line and the projections look a bit more realistic. I also increased the average score to 71.4, which is the median number of points scored by Division 1 teams this year. I previously used 70.7, as the median points allowed was 70. The difference occurs when teams play Division II or Division III in the early part of the season. The numbers still like the overs for the most part, but is a little more selective.
Norfolk St. vs. Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are favored by 33 with a total of 154 and I have the Zags winning 96-66, which might be optimistic on the part of Norfolk. The Spartans only played one team ranked in Pomeroy’s top 100 and managed to score 47 points in that one against Greensboro. The numbers are also calling for a 49-31 halftime score, which would put it over the first-half total of 74.5.
Missouri vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma is favored by 1 with a total of 139.5 and I have it 75-72 for the Sooners, so the numbers like the over here. Both teams are decent offensively and defensively, so the game could go either way.
Ohio vs. Virginia: Another game, another over call for the full-game numbers, as the Cavaliers are favored by 7 with a total of 130.5 and I have them winning 73-66. The Cavs are actually more efficient on offense than defense and are hurting themselves a bit by limiting the number of possessions each game.
Eastern Washington vs. Kansas: Kansas is favored by 6 in the first half with a total of 68.5 and I have Kansas leading 36-35, so going to take my Eagles +6 in the first half. Eastern led Arizona 43-38 at halftime before losing by three, and also trailed Oregon 36-32 at the half this year. EWU led against Washington State and St. Mary’s at halftime before losing. All four games were on the road, so Eastern won’t be intimidated by Kansas and may keep it close.
VCU vs. Oregon: The Ducks are favored by 2.5 with a total of 64.5 in the first half and I have the Rams leading 34-31 at the break, so will take VCU +2.5 in this one.
Grand Canyon vs. Iowa: The Hawkeyes are favored by 14.5 with a total of 145 and I have Iowa winning 84-69, so another one the numbers like the over in. Grand Canyon didn’t lose by more than 10 all season and that was to Colorado, so they may be worth a look here. Iowa is -8 in the first half and I have them leading by five.
Greensboro vs. Florida State: FSU is 5.5 and 67.5 in the first half and I have the Seminoles leading 42-30, so will take FSU in the first half of this one. Florida State has been a better first-half team this season and I actually only have them winning the game by 10.
Dayton vs. Memphis: Memphis is 4.5 with a total of 137.5 and I have the Tigers winning 68-62, so will go ahead and take the under 137.5 in this one.
3/19/21
We fell to 82-68 after a dismal performance by Appalachian State last night, who didn’t do anything until the second half and then farted away a 6-point lead with five minutes to go by scoring two points in the final five minutes. Lots of games today, although the tournament hasn’t necessarily been kind to my college basketball method, as my strength of schedule numbers typically make too big of an adjustment. I did change the method from adding 80 points to all strength of schedule numbers to 100 to cut down on that a bit, but the full-game projections still are heavily on the bigger conference teams. It’s not as pronounced for the first-half but we’ll have three first-half plays and list the games where there was at least a five-point difference between the projection and the line, where you’ll see the method taking nearly all of the large favorites from the bigger conferences.
Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: The Tar Heels are -.5 in the first half with a total of 64.5 and I have the Badgers leading 35-28, so a play on Wisconsin here. We’ve gone against the Tar Heels in the first half several times during the year, as they’ve been a slow-starting team for much of the year.
Winthrop vs. Villanova: The Wildcats are favored by 3.5 in the first half with a total of 66.5 and I have Villanova leading 40-31, so will take Villanova here. Withrop only lost once this season, but the Eagles only played two teams ranked in Pomeroy’s top 100. Villanova played 16.
Drexel vs. Illinois: Illinois is favored by 13 in the first half with a total of 68 and I have the Illini leading 45-29, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one. The Dragons have Pomeroy’s No. 247 defense against much worse foes, while the Illini are No. 8 on offense and play at a quick enough pace to get some scoring opportunities.
There were near misses on first half wagers on Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio State over 75.5 and Houston.
Games with at least a five-point difference for full game wagers were Wisconsin, Loyola over the total, Florida over the total, Arkansas, Arkansas over the total, Oklahoma State, Villanova, Villanova over the total, West Virginia, West Virginia over the total, Ohio State, Ohio State over the total, Illinois, Illinois over the total, Houston and Baylor.
3/18/21
St. Mary’s comeback attempt came up a couple of points short on Wednesday, as we dropped to 82-67 on the season on a night where the numbers were better than me, although Richmond’s injury situation made it tough to play the Spiders.
UCLA vs. Michigan State: Probably the biggest game of the night, although maybe not the best, as the Spartans are favored by 2 and the total has dropped to 134. I have the Spartans winning 71-69, so the numbers like the over a little bit, which is going against the grain. MSU is -1 and 63 for the first half and I have the Spartans leading 33-32. I’m not a fan of the Pac-12 this year, but not entirely sure MSU is the team to expose the weakness of the conference, especially at the expense of somebody like Memphis.
SMU vs. Boise State: Boise is favored by .5 and the total is 68.5 for the first half and I have SMU leading 34-41. Boise is 1.5 and 146 for the full game and I have the Mustangs winning 72-71 in what is shaping up to be a pretty decent NIT game.
Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State: The Mountaineers are favored by 3 after opening -2 and climbing as high as 3.5 before settling back down at 3. The total is 133.5 and I have Appalachian State winning 74-65, so going to take the favorite in this one for today’s lone play. The numbers like the over here for the full game and have a 4.5-point difference on the first-half over.
NC State vs. Davidson: Another decent NIT game here, where the Wildcats are favored by 1.5 with a total of 137, which has come down three full points after opening at 140. I have Davidson winning 70-68, although the numbers have the Wolfpack leading 34-33 at halftime.
Drake vs. Wichita State: Drake is now favored by 2 after opening as a 2-point dog and the total has climbed to 141. Much of the line movement is due to Hemphill getting the green light to play here, but not entirely sure he’s worth four full points in a game where he’ll be a little rusty. The numbers lean to Wichita, both for the first half and the full game, as I have the Shockers winning 71-69 and leading 34-31 at the break.
Texas Southern vs. Mount St. Mary’s: A reminder that just because it’s the NCAA tournament doesn’t mean it’s necessarily a good game, as we have the Mountaineers favored by 1.5 over Texas Southern. The total is 131.5 and I have Mount St. Mary’s winning 66-63 and leading 32-31 at the break.
3/17/21
Just a pair of college basketball games on tap for Wednesday, but it’s still good to see the NCAA back in action, especially after an 0-3 debacle last night in the NBA just when I thought things had turned around a bit. I’m not sure you’d play these games during the regular season, but it is tournament time, so we’ll see what we can come up with. We’re 82-66 for the season.
Toledo vs. Richmond: The injury report is the key to this one and Toledo is now favored by 3 after opening as a 1.5-point underdog. My numbers have Richmond winning the game due to their edge in strength of schedule, but the Spiders’ big two of Blake Francis and Grant Golden are both listed as questionable. It’s also a matter of if the two are able to go how effective they’ll be. Golden played last game, while Francis did not, but it’s been nearly two weeks since the Spiders played last. Betting this one at this time of the day is also a bet on the health of the Spiders, so not even going to touch this one.
Western Kentucky vs. St. Mary’s: St. Mary’s is favored by 2 with a total of 125 and in the first half it’s St. Mary’s -1 with a total of 58. Western Kentucky has a couple of nice wins this season against Alabama and Memphis, while St. Mary’s was thumped by Memphis the previous day. But St. Mary’s also played tougher against Gonzaga than Western Kentucky did against Houston, although the Zags did let up a little bit in the second half of the second game. This is a classic game of Western Kentucky being better offensively, while St. Mary’s is the better defensive team. The Gaels will slow the pace down, although the Hilltoppers aren’t exactly a team that likes to get up-and-down the court. Western Kentucky will be without Carson Williams, who is normally good for around 20-25 minutes a game and is an efficient offensive players, although it’s not a crippling loss. With the Toledo game a question mark due to injuries, will go ahead and take a shot on St. Mary’s in this one, as I have them winning 67-60 due to strength of schedule advantage, which comes with playing Gonzaga three times during the year.
3/14/21
Small slate of college basketball games for Selection Sunday, so we’ll take a quick look at all five games on the schedule. We moved to 80-66 for the season after a 2-1 day, losing the total in my Eastern Washington Eagles’ game.
Ohio State vs. Illinois: Illinois is favored by 3 in the first half and the total is 69.5 or 70 depending on your sportsbook. I have the Illini leading 39-36 at halftime, so will take the over here and use the 70. I have Illinois winning 81-75 for the full game. Both teams will be in the tournament, but a big game for seeding purposes and bragging rights, but not a whole lot else. The Buckeyes did beat Michigan yesterday, so could see a slight letdown. We saw 71 and 78 first-half points between these two teams in the regular season when they split their two games.
LSU vs. Alabama: Alabama is favored by 3.5 in the first half with a total of 74.5 and I have Alabama leading 40-38 at the break. I have Alabama winning 86-80 for the full game, which has the numbers on the over for the full game.
VCU vs. St. Bonaventure: St. Bonnies is favored by 1.5 with a total of 60 in the first half and I have the VCU leading 32-30, but the Bonnies winning the game 64-62. A little too close for comfort on the side of the total.
Cincinnati vs. Houston: Houston is favored by 7.5 in the first half with a total of 63.5 and I have the Cougars leading 39-26, so going to just follow the numbers and take a shot on Houston -7.5. The Bearcats have done a great job to get here, knocking off SMU and Wichita State as 5-point underdogs or so, but this Houston team should be too much, especially on the defensive end. The Bearcats were 10-6 in conference games with a scoring margin of -.8, while Houston was 16-3 with a margin of +10.8. The Cougars won 90-52 during the regular season. Houston led 20-19 after 10 minutes, but outscored Cincinnati 30-7 the rest of the way in the first half. Houston had 10 players play at least 10 minutes and nobody played more than 26, as the Cougars went to the bench quite a bit in the second half and outscored Cincinnati 40-26.
Loyola MD vs. Colgate: Colgate is favored by 5.5 with a total of 69.5 and I have Colgate leading 40-33 at the half. For the game, I have the Raiders winning 84-71, so the numbers like the full-game over.
3/13/21
College hoops are going OK, but really laboring in the NBA right now, so will look to get back on track with the pros. Did have the Kansas game postponed last night, so we had just the three plays and moved to 78-65 for the year.
New Mexico State vs. Grand Canyon: This game won’t get a lot of attention with some of the other games on the slate today, but it’s actually a pretty good match-up. New Mexico State is favored by 1.5 with a total of 58.5 in the first half and I have Grand Canyon leading 34-32, so going to take a shot on the over 58.5 in this one. The teams met twice during the regular season with Grand Canyon winning both games, although they were the home team both times in back-to-back games. Grand Canyon shot well both games, but they do shoot 49.4% from the field for the season, so they were actually a little below average in the second game and a bit above average in the first half. We saw 64 and 67 points in the first half of the two previous meetings and think the two can combine to sneak over the total here.
Montana State vs. Eastern Washington: The Eagles are favored by 4 with a total of 70.5 and I have the Eagles leading 42-35 at the break, so will take the over in this one. The Eagles like to run and were able to do so against Montana State during the regular season, winning both games on the road against the Bobcats. This one is being played in Boise, so a bit of a haul for both teams. The Eagles turned on the defense last night early against Montana, holding the Grizzlies to 15 points in the first half, but don’t see a repeat against a Bobcat team that is a bit better shooting and can also get to the foul line, attempting 22.5 free throws per game.
Utah State vs. San Diego State: The Aztecs are favored by 1 with a total of 60, although you can find SD State -.5 at some places. I have the Aztecs leading 34-29, but will go ahead and take a shot on the Aztecs in this one. Utah State won both games during the season and knocked San Diego State out of the conference tournament last year. But the Aztecs led in two of the three games at the half, so will hope to see them get off to a fast start in a huge revenge spot.
3/12/21
Dropped our lone college play yesterday, as Arizona State wilted in the final five minutes and came up three points short. The loss drops the record to 75-65 on the season. A pretty good slate of games today, with some marquee match-ups on the schedule.
North Carolina vs. Florida State: The Seminoles are favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 71 and I have Florida State leading 41-33, so going to take a shot on Florida State. The Tar Heels are playing well and have gotten themselves back into the tournament in all likelihood, but have started out a bit slow more often than not. Even in yesterday’s win over Virginia Tech, the Tar Heels trailed by three at the break, so they’re not going to panic if they fall behind. The Seminoles have played pretty well in the first half and have a scoring margin of +9.9 in conference games, so will take the small favorite here.
Texas vs. Kansas: Texas is favored by a half-point with a total of 63.5 and I have the Longhorns leading 36-33, so will take the over 63.5 in this one. Both teams are solid offensively and defensively, so it won’t be an extremely high-scoring game, but both teams have enough talent on offense to get there at the end. The Longhorns won both games played during the regular season, with halftime scores of 66 and 75 points.
Montana State vs. Southern Utah: Southern Utah is favored by 4 with a total of 71 and I have the Thunderbirds leading 42-37, so will take the over 71 in this one. Southern Utah is good on offense and not so great on defense, while the Bobcats aren’t great on either end of the floor. The teams didn’t meet during the year.
Missouri vs. Arkansas: Arkansas is favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 71 and I have the Tigers leading 39-36 at the break, so will take Missouri +2.5 in this one. The Tigers won the first meeting against Arkansas this year and lost the rematch in overtime, so they’ve been able to hang with the Razorbacks. The Tigers led by three at the half in both games and have a better first-half scoring margin in conference games.
3/11/21
We split the two college plays last night to fall to 75-64 on the season. Lots of games today and ran the numbers for quite a few and only one game came up as a play. There were a number of 3-point differences in our totals projections, so I’ll list a few of those here.
Arizona State vs. Oregon: The Quack Attack is favored by 5 in the first half of this one with a total of 69.5 and I have the Sun Devils leading 36-35 at halftime, so will take ASU +5 for our only official play of the day. The Sun Devils have shown a bit of a tendency to play better in the first half of games during the season. For the year, the Sun Devils have a +1.2 scoring margin in the first half, but are -2.1 for the full game. ASU was -.5 in the first half of their conference games and were 8-10 in conference play for the season. While the Ducks were 14-4 in conference games, they had a scoring margin of just +.1 in the first half and overall Oregon was a +1.7 in the first half, which is a bit lower than you’d expect from a 19-5 team. The Ducks came away with a 75-64 road victory a month ago in a game ASU was brutal from the field, hitting just 33%. The Sun Devils had a tough one last night against WSU, so fatigue may be a bit of a factor but hoping if it comes into play in will be in the second half, as the game wears on.
Cal Poly vs. Irvine: Irvine is favored by 8.5 with a total of 60 in the first half and I have Irvine leading 32-24 at the break, making it just a four-point difference between our projection and the line, so will sit this one out.
NAU vs. Eastern Washington: The Eagles are favored by 8.5 with a total of 71 and I have Eastern leading 42-30 at the break, so a 3.5-point difference in EWU’s favor, which isn’t quite enough for a play on my Eagles.
Texas Tech vs. Texas: Solid game here, where the Red Raiders are favored by .5 with a total of 63 and I have Texas leading 34-33 at the break.
Duke vs. Florida State: Florida State is favored by 2.5 with a total of 72 and I have the Seminoles leading 41-34, so leans to the favorite and the over in this one.
3/10/21
When all was said and done, we ended up with a 3-2 day on Tuesday, sneaking in there to win the Bryant total by a half-point. Dismal first-half efforts by Boston College and North Dakota State did us in on two two losses. After five plays yesterday, ran the numbers for more games than usual, but as is often the case, just two plays for today, one total and one side.
NC State vs. Syracuse: Syracuse is favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 69 and I have the Wolfpack leading 38-36, so our lone over play of the day will be in this spot. These two teams have seen 67 points and 85 points in the first half of their two games this season, where Syracuse came out on top both times. The higher-scoring game was a bit closer, so think the Wolfpack might look to push the tempo a bit more than normal in this one, while Syracuse has shown it can win regardless how the first half plays out.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: North Carolina is favored by 3.5 and I have the Irish leading by a 38-36 score, so going to take a shot on Notre Dame here. Yes, the Irish were pushed to the limit last night, but these are 20-year-old kids we’re talking about, so fatigue should be at a minimum. North Carolina won the earlier meeting between the two teams by a 66-65 final score, using 20 offensive rebounds to overcome some poor shooting and take the win in a game that close throughout, as the teams were never separated by more than seven points the entire game.
Nebraska vs. Penn State: Penn State is favored by 3.5 with a total of 68.5 and I have Penn State leading 38-35, so a narrow miss on the over in this one. We saw 70 and 77 points in the two games between these teams at halftime, so can’t blame anybody who likes the over here, but a half-point shy of the five-point margin we look for.
Idaho vs. Montana: The Grizzlies are favored by 7.5 with a total of 61.5 and I have Montana leading 37-26 at the half, so the numbers lean to Montana. Idaho was a solid first-team a year ago and we rode the Vandals quite a few times, but it’s been a completely different story this year. The teams didn’t meet this season, but Montana is a solid 3-point shooting team and the Vandals allow 38.4%, so could be a long day for the Vandals.
3/9/21
Outsmarted myself on the plays yesterday, grabbing one of the losers we had listed in the games, so won’t do the same thing twice. We’ll have quite a few plays today, more than normal, so we’ll see how it all plays out. We fell to 71-61 on the listed plays yesterday.
Boston College vs Duke: Duke is favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 72.5 and I have the Blue Devils leading 43-35 at halftime, so going to take the over in this one. It was Boston College who led 43-35 at halftime when the teams met in the regular season and Duke turned it around in the second half and pulled out the win.
Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State: North Dakota State is favored by a half-point her with a total of 68 and I have Oral Roberts leading 38-35 at the break, so going to take the over in this one, as well. The teams met twice during the regular season, splitting the two games and Oral Roberts won 80-74, while North Dakota State’s victory was a 61-54 win. Neither first-half saw a lot of points, but think Oral Roberts looks to push the pace here. Both teams played tough games last night and could be a little spent, which could take a tool on defense.
Wake Forest vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame is favored by 5 with a total of 66, while I have the Irish leading 39-32, so another over play in this one. The Irish led 35-32 at the half when these teams met earlier this season, only to see the Deacons score 26 points in the second half. There were only 16 combined free throws in the game.
Oakland vs Cleveland State: The Vikings are favored by 1 with a total of 65.5 and I have this one 36-36 at the half, so once again, we’ll go over the total here. We saw 79 and 93 points in the first half when these two played during the regular season.
Mt. Saint Mary’s vs. Bryant: Bryant is favored by 4 with a total of 62.5 and I have this one 40-34 for Bryant at the half, so our final over play of the day. Certainly contrasting styles here, as Bryant is No. 14 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted pace ratings and Mt. St. Mary’s is No. 356. The teams didn’t meet during the regular season.
3/8/21
A split with our two games on Sunday, which puts up 71-60 for the season and a small slate of tournament games are on tap for today. There have been a couple of totals moves that don’t appear to make a lot of sense, with the totals dropping. Last year’s conference tournaments were going under the number at a steady clip, which may have something to do with it.
Rider vs. Canisius: Ugly game here, where Canisius is favored by 3.5 in the first half and the total is 68.5. I have Rider leading this one 35-33 at the break, so going to take a stab on Rider here. This will be the first meeting between the two this season, which you don’t always see in the conference tournaments. Even though Rider was 5-13 in conference play, they were just -2.2 in first-half scoring margin, while Canisius was 7-5 in conference games, while posting a -4.5 scoring margin in the first half.
Mercer vs. Greensboro: Greensboro is favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 63.5 after opening 65.5, while I have Mercer leading 37-35 at the break, so the numbers lean to the dog and the over. Greensboro did win both of the meetings during the season.
Oral Roberts vs. South Dakota State: Another game that has seen the total drop, as South Dakota State is now favored by 2.5, while the total has moved from 78 to 76. I have Oral Roberts leading by a 42-40 score.
Appalachian State vs. Georgia State: Georgia State is favored by 4 with a total of 63.5 and I have Georgia State leading 38-33. Both teams see slightly lower scoring in conference games, so this one is definitely one I’d stay away from.
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 10.5 in the first half of this one with a total of 67.5, while I have Gonzaga leading 41-30 at the break. The Zags led 32-25 at halftime in one game this season and also had a 51-24 halftime edge when the two teams met last month.
Milwaukee vs. Cleveland State: The Vikings are favored by 2 in the first half and the total is 66 and I have Cleveland State leading 38-32 at halftime.
3/7/21
Pretty good slate of games on tap for Sunday, as there are some huge matchups on the schedule, so we’ll look at some of those games. There were no 5-point differences in the first-half lines and the projections, so we’ll have two full-game plays for today. We’re now 70-59 after Saturday’s plays.
East Tennessee State vs. Greensboro: Greensboro is favored by 3 with a total of 130.5 and I have East Tennessee winning 69-65, so will take the small underdog in this one. The teams split their two games during the regular season, with both teams winning on the road. ETS does need to clean-up the turnovers a bit here, as they made 33 in the two games. ETS has had a rebounding edge in both games, which has eliminated Greensboro’s turnover advantage to an extent, owning a 29-19 edge in offensive rebounds to help offset its -15 margin in turnovers.
Memphis at Houston: Another decent games here, featuring two of the top five defensive teams in the country, but also a pair of the most efficient offensives. Houston is favored by 10 and the total just hit 134.5, and there are a few 135s out there. I have Houston winning 69-57, so going to have to have to take a shot on the under in this one, using 134.5 since that’s the most common number.
Wisconsin at Iowa: Iowa is favored by 7 and the total is 144, while I have Iowa winning 76-71. Wisconsin was horrible the first time the teams met, hitting just 30% from the field and were 7 of 12 from the foul line, so no surprised they were thumped the way they were.
Nebraska at Northwestern: Northwestern is favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 65.5 and I have the Wildcats leading 38-32, so not quite there for a play on the over in this one.
Florida at Tennessee: The Vols are favored by 5.5 in a big revenge game and I have them winning 70-68, but really want no part of the Gators in this spot after the beat Tennessee 75-49 the first time these two met. Wouldn’t be in any rush to lay that points, either. The biggest difference between lines and projections was the first half over 64, as I have the Vols leading 35-32.
3/6/21
After a few days of some bad beats, threw in an absolute clunker last night, as North Texas was dismal from the field the entire game. That knocks the record down to 67-59 and we have a big slate of games today, so we’ll have three plays and I’ll just let the numbers do the work and stay out of the way.
Morehead State vs. Belmont: The finals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament pits Morehead and Belmont, who split their two games during the regular season. Belmont is favored by 6.5 and the total is 138 and I have this one at 69-69, so going to take Morehead State +6.5 in this one, which is an ESPN2 game. Belmont is much better offensively, while Morehead State likes to play a slower game and is the better defensive team of the two.
Illinois at Ohio State: The biggest game on the schedule sees the Illini visit the Buckeyes, where Ohio State is favored by two with a total of 150.5 and I have Illinois winning 79-75, so will take a shot on Illinois in this one. The Buckeyes get a slight edge on offense, while Illinois is the better defensive team. Illinois is coming off a big win against Michigan, but shouldn’t suffer any type of letdown going up against another marquee team.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia: West Virginia is favored by 8.5 with a total of 147.5 and I have the home team winning by an 81-74 final, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. Oklahoma State is a decent defensive team, but West Virginia can shoot the ball. The Mountaineers scored 87 points in the first meeting and didn’t have what you’d call a strong shooting game. Could be a fight, but think they score enough here to get over the number.
Rutgers at Minnesota: Rutgers is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 66 and I have Minnesota leading 34-31, so but hard to play with Minnesota’s injuries, which have been compounded by a number of players listed as questionable.
Duke at North Carolina: One of those strange games, where I have Duke covering in the first-half but the Tar Heels covering for the game, as Carolina has had a few rough starts this season, but have been able to turn it around for the second half.
3/5/21
Another game that was a half-point loss on my ledger, but one that many either pushed or won, as the game closed at 140.5 or 141 and it took six points in the last nine seconds to get to 139, while I released under 138.5, which is how things go at times. The record dropped to 67-58 on the day.
UAB at North Texas: North Texas is favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 60 and I have the Mean Green leading 34-26 at the half, so will take North Texas for our lone play of the day here. North Texas is better offensively and defensively. While they may not have the same scoring margin as the Blazers, they’ve played a much tougher schedule. If you look at conference scoring averages, UAB is +1.4 and North Texas is +5.5, so will side with the home team in this one.
Colorado State at Nevada: Colorado State is favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 68, while I have Nevada leading 33-32 in this one. Colorado State does have a decent first-half scoring edge in conference games.
Kent at Buffalo: Buffalo is favored by 3 with a total of 73.5 in the first half and I have Buffalo leading 41-35 at the break. Kent did win by three earlier this season after building a 21-point halftime lead and held off Kent at the end. Can’t blame those who like the home favorite in this one.
Boston College at Miami: The Canes are favored by 2 in the first half and I have this one 34-34 at the break, which is right at the total of 67.5, so a tough one to make a play on.
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest: Georgia Tech is favored by 4.5 in the first half with a total of 63.5 and I have the Yellow Jackets leading 34-30 at the break, so too close for comfort on both the side and the total of this one.
Ball State at Toledo: Toledo is favored by 5 with a total of 73.5 and I have Toledo leading by a 42-35 score at the break.
Hawaii at UC Davis: UC Davis is favored by 2 with a total of 66 and I have UCD leading by a score of 32-31.
3/4/21
A decent night for the good guys last night, officially going 3-1, but hopefully some of you pushed or won with the Florida total, as it closed at 141. But it will go down as a half-point loss on my ledger. After four plays last night, just going to have one today, as most of the numbers were pretty close to the lines. We moved to 67-57 on the season.
Canisius at Siena: Siena is favored by 6 and the total has climbed to 138.5, but I have the Saints winning by a 67-61 final, so going to go against the grain and take the under in this one. Canisius doesn’t shoot well and Siena is decent on defense, while the Saints aren’t offensive powerhouses in their own right. Siena does like to slow things down a little bit and think they’ll be able to dictate the pace at home.
Oklahoma State at Baylor: Baylor is favored by 12 and the total here is 149.5, while I have Baylor winning 83-72, so the numbers like the over a little bit, but it’s a pretty steep number for a game involving two teams who can play pretty solid defense. My first-half numbers had this one landing under the total by a half-point.
TCU at West Virginia: West Virginia is favored by 13 with a total of 142.5 and I have the Mountaineers winning by an 82-64 decision, but a letdown spot for West Virginia has me a little hesitant to pull the trigger on this one. The Mountaineers took Baylor to overtime before falling last time out and has a tough test in Oklahoma State on tap.
Vanderbilt at Cincinnati: The Bearcats are favored by 6.5 and I have Vandy winning 74-71, but the status of Scotty Pippen Jr. is questionable for this one and he’s the best player for the Commodores, so no point in playing this one. Even if he does go you have to wonder if his hip will impact his play a little bit, so when in doubt, it’s usually best just to sit the game out and wait for another day, which I’ll do in this one.
3/3/21
Dropped to 64-56 on the season with another split in college hoops, but another 1-2 day overall after losing with the Bucks total in the NBA. Small slate of games, but a few decent ones on the schedule and will have a few more plays than normal, as I’m just going to follow the numbers today and try to stay out of the way.
Fordham at George Washington: This is one of the uglier games on the slate today and George Washington is favored by 7.5 with a total of 128.5 and I have GWU winning 63-57, so going to take the under in this one. Fordham is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, as they shoot 35.6% from the field and are even worse on 3-pointers, shooting 27%. George Washington isn’t a great defensive team, but they don’t really have to be to keep Fordham from scoring much. Fordham does play a slow style, so hoping to see points at a minimum.
Idaho State at Eastern Washington: The Eagles are favored by 13 with a total of 146 and I have Eastern taking a 75-63 victory in this one, so will play the under in this one, as well. Idaho State plays at a slow pace and will need to do so here to avoid getting blown out. Last time the played Eastern they tried to run with them and the end result was a predictable 100-75 loss. The Bobcats are solid at defending the 2-pointer, while not as strong against the 3.
Missouri at Florida: The Gators are favored by 4.5 with a total of 142.5 and I have Florida winning 77-72, so going to play the over in this one. Both teams shoot well and play decent defense, so it’s going to be one of those games that could come down to the wire, but think we can see enough offense to just get there.
NC State at Notre Dame: The Irish are favored by 1 with a first-half total of 68 and I have Notre Dame leading 38-35, so will take the over 68 in the first half. Both teams score right about 50% of their points in the first half, so think there’s a little bit of value here with the over.
3/2/21
Coming off an extremely frustrating day that saw a 22-point win and then two 1.5-point losses for a 1-2 day overall, so heading in the wrong direction right now with a mini 3-6 slump. We split the two college games and are 63-55 for the season. Still have been passing over too many games that have ended up winners and that’s been one reason we fared a little better the past few seasons – with separate articles for first halves, sides and totals didn’t have the luxury of skipping over so many games, as I had to come up with at least one play for each article. So, let’s hope things continue moving in the right direction on the COVID front and hopefully we can get back to normal next season.
Xavier at Georgetown: Xavier is favored by 1 with a total of 69.5 in the first half and I have the Hoyas leading 36-32, so will take Georgetown in this spot. The Hoyas have been a better first-half team during the season. Even though their conference record is 6-8, Georgetown is a +2 in first-half scoring margin in conference games. Xavier is 6-5 in conference play but is a -2.3 in first-half scoring margin, so going to follow the numbers with the Hoyas here.
Kentucky at Mississippi: The Rebels are favored by 3 with a total of 131 and I have the Wildcats winning 66-64, so will follow the numbers here and take a shot on Kentucky +3. I have the Wildcats with a decent strength of schedule edge and the teams are pretty close to even in terms of SEC scoring margin.
Baylor at West Virginia: The Bears are 4.5 in this one and I have Baylor pulling out a 77-76 win, so the numbers like the home dog a little bit here.
Illinois at Michigan: The Wolverines are favored by 7.5 and I have Michigan winning by 3, but without Dosunmu it’s a little hard to take the Illini in this spot.
Tulsa at UCF: The Knights are favored by 1.5 with a total of 61.5 in the first half and I have UCF leading 34-28, so not quite a play on the home team. Tulsa has had a couple of bad first halves in conference play, as their scoring margin is -6.4 despite having a 7-8 conference record. The Hurricanes have played better in the second half of those games and having a season scoring margin of -2.8 in conference play.
3/1/21
Have done a poor job of narrowing down the plays the past few days and it came back to bite me yesterday with an 0-2 record on the plays, while skipping over a few of the wins. That’s how things go at times, and we’re now 62-54 with the plays. Somewhat of a smaller slate of games tonight, but we’ll have two first-half plays.
Arizona at Oregon: The Ducks are favored by 2.5 in the first half with a total of 65.5 and I have Arizona leading 35-33 at the break, so will go ahead and take the Wildcats in a revenge roll in this one. The Ducks defeated Arizona a couple of weeks ago and think the Wildcats will give a good accounting of themselves here. Arizona stunk it up from the field in the first meet, shooting less than 40% in a game that was tied at the half after Oregon raced out to a 22-12 lead, only to see the Wildcats outscore the Ducks 22-12 the final 8:30 of the first half. Arizona is a little better offensively, while the Ducks get a bit of an edge on defense. Even though the Ducks have a better conference record, Arizona has a better first-half scoring margin.
Rutgers at Nebraska: Rutgers is favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 65 and I have this one 33-33 at the break, so going to take Nebraska plus the points in this one. Rutgers is coming off a win against Indiana and has Minnesota on tap, so probably not a great spot for the Scarlet Knights, who could be looking ahead a little bit. The Huskers can play defense, although they’re not that great offensively, so points could be tough to come by considering Rutgers is quite a bit better on defense than they are offensively.
North Carolina at Syracuse: UNC is favored by a half-point here and the first-half total is 71, while I have Syracuse leading 38-37 at the break, so the numbers like the over a little bit. When these two teams met earlier this season in January it was 40-40 at the half. Syracuse likes to play at a decent clip and is better offensively than they are on defense, while the Tar Heels are better defensively. They also like to play at a decent pace.
2/28/21
We moved to 62-52 on the season when the Utes managed to sneak in there and cover by a half-point in what was one of the ugliest 1-2 days you’ll see, as both NBA plays weren’t even close.
Nevada at Utah State: Utah State is favored by 7.5 and the total is at 141, while I have the Aggies winning 73-63. Utah State just won 75-72 on Friday, jumping out to a 41-25 halftime lead and then holding off Nevada at the end after the Wolfpack scored 47 points in the second half. We’ve seen a lot of teams play different when they face in back-to-back games and think we’ll see a little more defense, so going to follow the numbers and take a shot on the under in this one.
Memphis at Cincinnati: The Tigers are favored by 4.5 and the total has climbed all the way from 136 to 140.5, while I have Memphis winning 67-64, so going to go against the line move and take the under. Memphis is one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranked No. 2 by Ken Pomeroy, and they’ve gone 4-14 in totals this season, while the Bearcats are 13-4 in totals. Both teams do play at a pace that’s a little faster than normal, but both are much better defensively than they are offensively.
Iowa at Ohio State: The Buckeyes are favored by 1.5 and the first-half total is 75, while I have this one at 41-41 at the break. It was 45-42 when these two played three-and-a-half weeks ago, so not sure if we’ll see any sort of adjustments here. Jack Nunge shared the team lead with 18 points for Iowa and he’s out for this one, while Kyle Young, one of three Buckeyes to have scored 16 points in the win, is listed as questionable for this one.
Charlotte at UTEP: UTEP is now favored by 6.5 in this one and the total is 125, while I have the Miners winning 71-57. UTEP won 70-47 last night in a game that saw Charlotte score 26 points in the first 30 minutes of the game. Charlotte actually led 13-9 with 15:20 remaining in the first half, only to score 5 points the rest of the half and 8 points in the first 10 minutes of the second half. Surprisingly, the numbers are calling for 64 first-half points, which puts it over the total of 58.5.
2/27/21
Quite a few big games on tap in college basketball and we’ll take a quick look at some of the bigger ones on the schedule. We’re 61-52 on the season after a bit of a rare night that saw our two first-half plays get the money but both didn’t cover the full-game spread.
USC at Utah: The Trojans are favored by 2.5 in the first half, with the number coming down from 3 as I was writing this, and I have the Utes leading 34-32 at the half, so going to take a shot on Utah in the first half of this one for our only play of the day.
Baylor at Kansas: The Bears are favored by 3.5 after being favored by 4.5 and 5 earlier in the morning. I have Kansas winning by 1, but the last line move knocks us out of the five-point difference we like to see between the line and our projection.
Florida State at North Carolina: The Seminoles are favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 71.5 and I have FSU leading 39-32. A huge revenge game for the Tar Heels, who lost in Tallahassee earlier this season by 7 in a game that saw FSU go 26 for 27 from the foul line.
LSU and Arkansas: The Razorbacks are favored by 6 and the total has climbed to 162.5, while I have Arkansas winning 87-82, so the numbers like the over a little bit. Think the Razorbacks may come out and play some defense even if it means slowing things down a little more than normal in what is a revenge game for the home team.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: The Sooners are favored by 5 and the total has just hit 140 at several betting outlets and I have Oklahoma winning 75-70 in this one. A lean to the over is what the numbers have in this one, although you can see closer games in rivalry spots, so will most likely sit this one out.
Florida at Kentucky: The Wildcats are favored by 1 with a first-half total of 67 and I have Kentucky leading 36-35, so a slight edge to the over. The Wildcats went into Gainesville earlier this year and thumped the Gators, who were a dismal 12 for 36 on 2-pointers in the game and a decent 9 for 20 on 3-pointers. Kentucky led 35-29 at the half after the Gators scored just nine points in the second 10 minutes of the first half.
2/26/21
A split in the two college plays Thursday, but did drop the NBA play for an ugly 1-2 day. We’re now 59-52 on the season with the college plays.
Nevada at Utah State: Utah State is favored by 4 with a total of 66.5 for the first half of this one and I have Utah State leading 37-29 at the break, so will go ahead and take a shot on Utah State in the first half of this one. The difference is a little smaller than we’d like, but all of the games I looked at were pretty close to the lines. Utah State is one of those teams that plays a little better than their stats would indicate. The teams are pretty even on offense, while Utah State is a fair amount better on defense.
UAB at Texas-San Antonio: UAB is favored by 2 in this one and I have UTSA leading 37-35. The Blazers have a decent edge in the stats, while UTSA has the edge in strength of schedule. San Antonio has been a little bit more of a first-half team this season, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the home underdog in this one.
Richmond at St. Louis: A good game here, St. Louis is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 68 and I have this one 34-34 at the break. St. Louis gets the edge in stats, but the Spiders have a healthy edge in strength of schedule.
North Texas at Marshall: Marshall is favored by 2 in this one with a total of 67 and I have North Texas leading 34-33 at the half.
UCSB at Riverside: Santa Barbara is favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 62 and I have UCSB leading 31-29 at the break.
Bowling Green at Akron: Akron is favored by 2 with a total of 73 and I have Akron leading 40-35 at halftime of this one.
Tulane at Cincinnati: Cincinnati is favored by 3 in this one with a first-half total of 62.5 and I have the Bearcats leading 31-27 at the break, so the numbers like the under a bit. It was 31-29 at the half when these two met earlier this season.
2/25/21
A lot of big games on the slate today and we’ll take a quick look at a few of them, although no plays on those, which tend to be a little tougher to predict. We moved to 58-51 on the season after winning with Providence last night.
Loyola Marymount at Pepperdine: The Waves are favored by 2.5 in the first half with a total of 68 and I have Pepperdine leading 39-30 at the half so will take the Waves -2.5 here. Pepperdine is favored by 4.5 for the game and I have them winning by 10, but making the first-half play, as the Waves have been a little stronger in the first, as evidenced by the two different margins. This is the first meeting of the year between the two, although Pepperdine has won the last three, which have been pretty close.
Northwestern at Minnesota: The Gophers are favored by 5 and I have Northwestern winning by 3, so going to take one final shot on Northwestern, who has let me down a few times in the past couple of weeks. Northwestern has Ken Pomeroy’s toughest schedule played, with boosts them up in my method. While they can’t hang with the top teams in the conference, the Wildcats might be able to make a game of it against a Minnesota team that is missing Gabe Kalscheur and could be without Liam Robbins. Northwestern has lost 13 in a row, although all 13 teams they played were rated higher than Minnesota by Pomeroy.
Iowa at Michigan: Michigan is favored by 5 with a total of 155 and I have the Wolverines winning 82-79, which would typically be enough of an edge for a play on the over. But looking at conference scoring shows Iowa seeing 5.5 fewer points than their overall numbers and the Wolverines seeing 4.4 fewer points. Looking at the game using only conference numbers would have a projection of 79-73 Michigan, so will just stay clear of this one.
Pacific at St. Mary’s: St. Mary’s is favored by 6.5 with a total of 123 and I have St. Mary’s winning 66-62, so a bit of a lean to the over, although both teams play at slow pace and are better defensively than offensively. The number’s low, but will most likely just end staying clear of this one.
2/24/21
Decent slate of games for a Wednesday, but not necessarily a great card from a handicapping perspective. We moved to 57-51 on the season last night when Richmond led wire-to-wire and held on for the win.
Xavier at Providence: Xavier is favored by 1 in the first half of this one with a total of 66.5 and I have Providence leading 35-32, so going to take a shot on Providence here. I also have the Fryers winning 74-70, so the numbers like Providence +2 for the full-game wager, but will stick with the halftime play. Xavier won 74-73 when these played earlier and Providence had a good-shooting game, especially from 3-point range, where David Duke was 7 for 9 and the team finished 13 for 22. Providence wasn’t that good from 2-point range, going 16 for 34, with Nate Watson going 8 for 11 and the rest of the team a combined 8 for 23. Xavier was solid from 2-point range and labored from 3-point range a bit and the game was decided at the foul line, where Xavier was just 8 for 16, but Providence was even worse, going 2 for 6, with Watson going 1 for 4, which isn’t what you expect from a 67% free throw shooter. Think Providence will come out hard in a revenge spot.
Chattanooga at Mercer: Not sure what to make of this one, as Mercer is favored by 2 with a first half total of 64.5 and I have Mercer leading 36-34 at the break. The full-game total opened at 142 and is all the down to 137.5 and Mercer is favored by 3.5. I have Mercer winning 79-70, so the numbers like the home favorite and the over, but college totals don’t typically move 4.5 points unless there’s a reason. Not sure if there’s an injury to Mercer or something else I missed, so just going to stay clear of this one, at least for the time being.
Florida State at Miami: Florida State is favored by 6.5 with a total of 67.5 in the first half and I have the Seminoles leading by a 38-27 score, so the numbers lean to Florida State, who crushed the Hurricanes by 22 earlier this season. It is a rivalry game, but with the Seminoles having North Carolina on deck, you really can’t blame FSU for not getting too excited for this one.
2/23/21
A close loss with Arkansas State last night, as we settle for a 2-1 night to move to 56-51 on the season. A lot of games where there are some decent differences in the lines and our projections, but most of them have a red flag somewhere when you look at them more closely, so just one play today.
UMass at Richmond: The Spiders opened 7.5 and the line has moved to 9 with Richmond getting the majority of the wagers in the game, which is a little surprising, as the Minutemen have a decent record and decent stats. The one problem with UMass is their strength of schedule isn’t all that good and I have Richmond winning 85-67, so going to take a shot on the Spiders here. Richmond has wins over Loyola, Davidson and Kentucky this season, three teams who are better than anybody UMass has beaten. UMass is returning to action after a 2.5-week break, which might affect them somewhat, but don’t believe it’s as big of an issue as some have made it out to be. Richmond will be the best team UMass has played so far this season. The line is a little steep, but taking a shot on the home favorite.
Florida at Auburn: The Tigers are favored by 1.5 with a total of 155 and I have Florida winning 82-79, but the Tigers are getting some respect from sharp bettors this morning. Should be a decent game to watch, but no real interest in betting on this one.
Mississippi at Missouri: Missouri is favored by 3.5 with a total of 132.5 and I have Missouri winning 72-66 in a revenge spot for the Tigers.
Illinois at Michigan State: The Illini are favored by 7 and the total here is 144 and I have Illinois winning 82-68, but not really sure what to think of the Spartans right now. Just when you’re ready to count them out, Michigan State comes up with a solid road win at Indiana after looking like crap the two previous games. It’s obviously a bigger game for the Spartans to have any hopes of making the tournament, while Illinois is pretty much locked in. The Illini are coming off a win against Minnesota and have Nebraska on tap, so no reason for them not to be focused on this one and I’ll just stay away.
2/22/21
A 1-2 day on Sunday knocked us down to 54-50 on the season and now a bit of a smaller slate of games for today. Three more plays for today, with them being a little bit of everything.
Syracuse at Duke: One of the better games of the day, sees Duke favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 70.5. I have the Blue Devils leading 42-36 at the break so will take the over 70.5 in this one. Both teams have better offensive ratings than they do on defense, although they’re decent at both and tend to play at a decent tempo.
William and Mary at Elon: Elon is favored by 4 with a total of 135 and I have Elon winning 66-61, so going to take a shot on the under 135 here. These two just played a 75-54 game on Saturday, as Elon was hot from the field and the Tribe was not. Elon hit 50% from 3-point range and better than 50% from the field, while William & Mary was bad from the field, from the foul line and beyond the 3-point circle. Neither team shoots well and William & Mary should play a little better defensively.
Texas State at Arkansas State: Texas State is favored by 3 and the total has dropped several points to 129 and I have Arkansas State winning 68-64 so will take the home underdog here. Both teams are playing well and on 4-game winning streaks and this is one of those games that looks to come down to the wire, so will grab the home underdog.
Citadel at Mercer: Interesting one here, as Mercer is favored by 8.5 with a total of 159. I have Mercer winning 87-82, but no real interest in the total here, as Citadel has seen lower scoring games as of late. After allowing 112 points to East Tennessee State on Jan. 30, Citadel has come back with seven straight unders, allowing 74 points a game over that span. When these teams met in January the total was 175 and easily went under the total, with Mercer coming away with an 83-63 decision. My numbers also have the first half going over the total of 75.5, with a projection of 42-41, but will stay clear of that one, as well.
2/21/21
A somewhat small slate of games on tap for Sunday and we’ll look at a few of the later games, as we moved to 53-48 on the season yesterday with a much-needed 4-0 day.
Wisconsin at Northwestern: The Badgers are favored are by 6 in this one and the total is 131, while I have Northwestern winning 70-65, so going to take a shot on the Wildcats in this one. Northwestern does get credit for having played a tougher schedule and is in a revenge spot, having lost by 16 at Wisconsin earlier this season. The Badgers are coming off a pair of losses and have Illinois at home up next, so could be a decent spot for Northwestern here. The Wildcats are in a lengthy losing streak but are still battling hard and that’s all you can ask for out of a team.
Little Rock at Monroe: Little Rock is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 60.5 and I have Monroe leading 33-31, so am going to take a shot on the home dog here. Monroe is one of those teams who has played a little better in the first half before lack of depth catches up. Little Rock won the first two meetings between the teams this year, although neither of those wins were necessarily easy.
Navy at American: Navy won here yesterday and is favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 62.5 and I have American leading 32-26, so will make it three home underdogs today with a play on American +3. In a strange schedule, American has only played five games so far this season and they’ve played Navy three times. None of the three have been blowouts, as they’ve lost by 1, 12 and 12, although American held the halftime lead in two of the three previous games. The Eagles stunk it up at the start of the second half yesterday, getting outscored 25-7 in the first 10 minutes, as a 34-28 halftime lead turned into a 53-41 deficit in a hurry.
Penn State at Iowa: The Hawkeyes are favored by 11 with a total of 159 and I have Iowa winning 86-78, so the numbers lean to the dog and the over in this one, but with both teams seeing less scoring in conference games than their overall averages, won’t be playing the total here.
2/20/21
A split last night to move to 49-48 on the season, as once again, the plays were better full-game plays than halftime plays, as we came up two points short of the total in the Ball State game, only to see the two combine for 101 points in the second half. Big schedule today and lots of TV games, so those are the ones we’ll look at and have quite a few selections, but I’ll also list most of the games, and either the full-game line or the first-half line, wherever the biggest edge is.
Auburn at LSU: LSU is favored by 4 with a total of 163 and I have LSU winning 88-82, so going to play the over in this one. I have LSU leading 42-38 at the half and they’re favored by 2 with a total of 77.5, so the full-game play is the only one that sneaks in there.
Illinois at Minnesota: Illinois is favored by 6 with a total of 148.5 and I have the Illini winning 82-73, so will take a stab on the over in this one, as well. Much like the game above, the numbers were pretty close to the first half lines, as I have Illinois leading 36-35 and they are -2.5 with a total of 70.
San Diego at Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 32 and the total is 154, while I have the Zags winning 98-62, so another over play in this one. The Zags are -17 in the first half and the total is 74, while I have the Bulldogs leading 47-28.
Missouri at South Carolina: Missouri is favored by 3 with a total of 151 and I have the Tigers winning 80-75. The Tigers are -2 in the first half with a total of 71 and I have Missouri leading 42-35, so one final over play here, taking the over 71 in the first half.
Virginia at Duke: The Cavs are favored by 2 with a total of 132 and I have Virginia winning 69-65, so pretty close to the side and the total here.
Louisville at North Carolina: Carolina is 5.5 with a total of 140 and I have the Tar Heels winning 69-67.
Arizona at USC: The Trojans are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 66 and I have USC leading 34-33.
Arizona State at UCLA: The Bruins are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 68.5 and I have UCLA with a 36-35 halftime advantage.
Oklahoma at Iowa State: The Sooners are 6 and 67.5 in the first half of this one and I have Oklahoma leading 38-31.
Texas Tech at Kansas: Kansas is favored by 1.5 with a total of 133.5 and I have the Jayhawks winning 70-65.
Stanford at Washington State: The Cardinal are favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 63 and I have Stanford leading 33-28, as the Cardinal get a decent strength of schedule edge.
2/19/21
Completely botched the college plays last night, talking myself out of a few winners, and then choosing the first-half under in the Wichita State game, as opposed to playing the full-game, which dropped us to 48-47 on the season. A bit of a tough card tonight, with most of the projections pretty close to the lines that are out.
Akron at Ball State: Akron is favored by 2.5 in the first half and the total is 68, while I have Ball State leading 37-36 at the break, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. It was 34-16 at the half the first time these two met and it wasn’t a whole lot better for Ball State in the second half, as they managed just 26 points and had 18 turnovers for the game. Both teams shoot at least 72% from the foul line on the season, but were horrid the first game, going a combined 14 for 26. Think this one is ripe for a fair amount of added scoring.
Oakland at Milwaukee: Milwaukee is favored by 1 with a total of 72, while I have Oakland leading 41-38 at the break, so will take the over 72 in this one, as well. The full-game total has dropped a couple of points down to 152 even though there have been 67% of the wagers on the over. Normally you have to respect those moves, but don’t really agree with this one. Both teams are playing high-scoring games as of late, as each has gone over the number in their last five outings. Over the years, full-game totals are 15-13 when both have at least five straight overs, so no real edge there, but also not a solid under spot, which I was afraid of.
Toledo at Buffalo: Decent game here, with Buffalo favored by 2 and a total of 163.5, while I made this one 84-84. It is the ESPN2 game at 9 p.m., so some people will likely want to wager on it. I have Toledo leading 39-38 at the half, so no real edge in this one.
St. Louis at Dayton: St. Louis moved from -3 to .5.5 even though the Billikens are getting just one-third of the early wagers. The number did reach 6 but has since come back down a little bit. I have this one coming down to the wire, with St. Louis winning 69-68, but no real interest in getting involved here.
2/18/21
Another fairly small slate of games and a lot of games where I have five or six point differences between my projections and the lines, but on closer examination, you can find faults with them, so just one play for the night. We moved to 48-46 on the season last night, so hopefully can go in the right direction.
Houston at Wichita State: The Cougars are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 65 and I have Houston leading 30-27, so going to take the first half under the total here. Houston scores 36.5 points in the first half, while allowing 24.4 and in conference games, the scoring margin is 35.5-25.8, while the Shockers score 33.9 and allow 29.3, but see a little bit of a drop in conference games, scoring 31.1 and allowing 27.4. When these two met in January, Houston rallied for a 70-63 win, coming back from a 31-25 halftime deficit. Last year we saw halftime scores of 38-18 and 35-25, so these teams have a tendency to play under the total.
BYU at Pacific: The Cougars are favored by 5.5 for the full game with a total of 136.5, while I have BYU winning 78-71, which would normally be an easy play on the over, but a little hesitant here due to the pace that both teams play. These two met earlier and it was a 95-87 final in double overtime, but the score was tied at 64-64 at the end of regulation.
Sacramento State at Southern Utah: This is one of those games that’s a bit scary, as Southern Utah is favored by 3.5 in the first half with a total of 67.5 and I have the home team leading 41-32, which points to the over and the Thunderbirds, but not entirely sure Southern Utah will get the Hornets to come out of their comfort zone, which is a slow, deliberate pace, one of the slowest in the nation, as Ken Pomeroy has Sacramento State rated No. 325 in adjusted tempo. Southern Utah scores a lot of points, but if look at who those points came against, you’ll see a lot of teams such as Saint Katherine and Besthesda. Southern Utah scored 110 and 109 their last two games, but Benedictine Mesa and San Diego Christian aren’t going to put much fear into opposing teams. Will just stay away from this one.
2/17/21
Somewhat of a small slate of games once again, although Wednesday schedules usually aren’t the largest. Looked at games from both a first-half and full-game perspective, but we’ll stick with the first-half plays today and have three of them.
South Florida at Central Florida: The Knights are favored by 1.5 with a total of 60.5 and I have UCF leading 33-27, but am going to go ahead and take UCF in a revenge role here. The Knights are favored by 3 for the full game and I have them winning by a score of 70-61. When these teams met on Jan. 2 it was Central Florida who was favored by 1 on the road and there’s really nothing that’s changed between the two. UCF has plenty of losses since that game, but those were games you expected the Knights to lose, as they were against the likes of Houston, SMU and Memphis. South Florida has only played four games since then and are just 1-3 in those games, so think there’s a bit of value here with UCF, who has played a much tougher schedule so far.
Greensboro at VMI: Greensboro is favored by 2 with a total of 69 and I have this one 41-36 at halftime, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. Greensboro plays solid defense, while VMI doesn’t play any at times and think we might see enough scoring to push this one over the number. The first game was 76-59 in favor of Greensboro, although it was 38-31 at the half. Neither team really shot that well and VMI had 20 turnovers, which resulted in just 58 field goal attempts compared to 72 for Greensboro.
Citadel at Wofford: Wofford is favored by 4.5 with a total of 74 and I have Wofford leading 43-37 at the break. Citadel is going to run up-and-down the court and the Terriers are going to be launching 3-pointers all game long, as 53% of their field goal attempts are 3-pointers, which is tops in the nation. Wofford was just 5 of 29 on 3-pointers in the first meeting, so no surprise they lost, especially with Citadel going 14 for 27. Much like the game above, there were a lot of first-half points. The full-game total has moved downward a point despite more over wagers coming in.
2/16/21
A 1-1-1 day for me here yesterday, although many of you won with New Orleans, as the line kept climbing to 11.5 or 12, which is fine with me. Will drop the push from the record and call us 45-46 for the season and now we have another smaller slate of games on tap for today. Not many differences between the numbers and my projections.
Xavier at St. John’s: St. John’s has moved from -1 to -1.5 even though they’re getting less than 45% of the wagers in this one, while the total opened at 154 and is still there despite more than 70% of the early wagers landing on the under. Much of that likely has to do with the teams playing a 69-61 contest earlier in which both teams stunk. Whether it was from the field, behind the 3-point line or at the foul line, they stunk. Xavier had the best shooting game, hitting 37.5% of its field goals, but then turned around and were 0 for 12 in 3-point attempts. Xavier was 61.8% from the foul line, which is better than the 8 for 15 effort of St. John’s. I have this one 82-80 for Xavier, but no interest in taking the visitors in a revenge spot for St. John’s, but will take a shot on the over 154.
Dayton at Rhode Island: Rhode Island is favored by 3.5 with a total of 132 and I have the Rams winning by a score of 70-62, so the numbers like Rhode Island a little bit. I have the Rams leading 33-28 at the half.
Florida at Arkansas: Arkansas is favored by 4 now with a total of 151 and I have the Hogs winning by a final of 81-80, so the numbers are predicting another high-scoring game in this one. Arkansas is 2 and 70.5 in the first half and I have it 38-38, but both teams see slightly fewer points in conference play, so really nothing more than a lean in this one.
Temple at Tulsa: Tulsa is favored by 3.5 with a total of 129 and I have the Hurricanes winning by a final score of 65-58, so a lean to the under in this one. Temple won 76-67 earlier this season in a game that featured 49 free throw attempts, which is one reason the game saw so many points. Last year in games where both teams attempted at least 23 foul shots, totals were 498-134-4 (77%), so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under 129.
2/15/21
Small slate of college basketball games for Monday, with a few earlier starts so will get this out early and have to look at full-game numbers, as first-half lines typically aren’t released until later in the day. We’re 44-45 on the season after going 2-1 on Sunday.
Stephen F. Austin at New Orleans: Stephen F. Austin has moved to 10 after opening -9 and the total has dropped a little bit from 154 to 152.5. SFA won by 11 at home last month in a game where they were favored by 11 and the total was 143, so quite a bit has changed since then in terms of today’s lines. SAF has gone 8-1 straight-up, while New Orleans has gone 3-4. The first meeting was a bit strange in that the teams only attempted 15 3-pointers combined, with New Orleans going 1 for 8 and SAF 2 for 7. Both teams took the ball inside and each attempted 30 or more free throws. New Orleans has played a slightly tougher slate than Stephen F. Austin and I have this one as a 2-point game, so going to take a shot on the home underdog in this spot.
East Tenn. at Chattanooga: Chattanooga opened -1 and the line has stayed there so far this morning at the majority of sportsbooks with close to 70% of the wagers coming in on the home team. Chattanooga won earlier this month on the road as a 5.5-point underdog, holding ETS to 5 points in the first 10 minutes of the game, only to see East Tennessee rally back and take a 65-64 lead with 11 seconds left, but Chattanooga scored late to take the 67-65 win. I have ETS winning this one by 6, so will take a shot on East Tennessee in a revenge spot.
Eastern Kentucky at Tennessee Tech: Eastern Kentucky has moved from -8 to -8.5 with 47% of the early wagers and I have them winning this one by 17, so going to take a shot on the road favorite. Eastern won by 10 at home earlier this season and think their style will wear down Tennessee Tech. They trailed with 4 minutes to go in the first game before turning it on and that one may serve as a wake-up call coming into this game.
Virginia at Florida State: Easily the best game of the day, the Seminoles are favored by 1.5 and the total is at 130. My numbers have Virginia winning 69-66, although not too convinced that FSU isn’t the right side in what should be a solid game. I have FSU leading 29-28 at the half.
2/14/21
Decent slate of college hoops for a Sunday and we’ll have a couple of plays for the day, although still just 42-44 on the season, as some bad picks and a little bad luck have been too much to overcome so far. Still, plenty of hoops left this season. There are a couple of games with bigger differences between our projections and the spread, but quick revenge games for the opposition, so will stay away from those.
Colgate at Army: Colgate is favored by 3 in the first half with a total of 71 and I have Army leading 42-34 at the break. Colgate beat Army by 10 yesterday, jumping out on the Cadets early, leading 26-13 after the first 10 minutes and taking a 37-28 halftime lead. The Raiders built an 18-point lead and Army’s comeback attempt came up short. Might regret this, but going to take Army and the over 71 in this one, as the number just jumped from 70 as I was typing this up. This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams and Colgate won the first game 101-57. The teams played the next day and Army came back with a 75-73 win on the road, so a similar situation here and am expecting a much-better effort from Army.
Tulane at South Florida: The Bulls are favored by 2.5 with a total of 59 and I have USF leading 30-24, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. Yes, the number is low, but both teams are better on defense and play at a slower pace than average. The last time these two met it was 26-23 at the half, so will go ahead and take the under here.
Elon at Charleston: Charleston is favored by 4 with a first-half total of 61 and I have this one 31-31, so just shy of having the 5-point gap in Elon’s favor. Elon has shown a habit of playing better in the rematch when teams are in back-to-back situations. The Phoenix lost to Northeastern by 23 and then came back and lost by 8, lost to Delaware by 23 and then by 5 the next day and then lost to James Madison by 21 and then by 9, although in the last one the second game moved to Elon after having the first at JMU. Wouldn’t be surprised if Elon stays within the number here.
2/13/21
The last few nights we’ve won the college plays, but turned around and dropped the NBA play, so will hope for better things today. Still with an ugly 41-44 record in college ball. Looked at the later games on TV today, but still just one play.
North Carolina at Virginia: The Cavs are favored by 3 with a total of 60 and I have Virginia leading by a 34-25 score, so will take Virginia in the first half of this one. Always a bit nerve-wracking to lay points with the Cavs, who can go through offensive slumps during a game, but will go ahead and take the favorite here. The Cavs have a big edge in 3-point shooting, which looks to be a weak spot for the Tar Heels. Virginia shoots 39.5, which ranks No. 8 in the country, while UNC allows 36.3%, which Ken Pomeroy has ranked as No. 275.
Tenn-Martin at Murray State: The Racers are favored by 10 in the first half with a total and I have the Racers leading 42-27, but with Murray State playing last night, not sure how they’ll fare in what is their first back-to-back games all season. The Racers didn’t blow out Southeast Missouri completely, so did have four players play 24 minutes or more.
St. Mary’s at Pepperdine: Pepperdine is favored by .5 in what might be a decent spot for them, as I have them leading 36-32, which is six points above the total of 62, but with both teams seeing lower-scoring games in conference play, there’s no real reason for wanting to jump on this one.
Florida International at UTEP: This is much like the game above, where UTEP is 4.5 and 66.5, while I have the Miners leading 41-32, but both teams have shown a tendency for lower-scoring games in conference.
Gonzaga at San Francisco: The Zags are favored by 9 with a total of 74 and I Gonzaga leading 46-32. The Bulldogs won by 23 the first time the teams met and led by 10 at the half. Gonzaga shot 52% for the game and the Dons shot 39%, so San Fran did a decent job keeping it close for as long as they did. The Zags outscored San Francisco 21-11 in the first 10 minutes of the second half to basically put the game out of reach and they led 80-51 before San Francisco closed the game on a 11-5 run.
2/12/21
A split in hoops on Thursday, winning in the colleges and dropping the NBA game. Still, just 40-44 in the college basketball.
St. Bonaventure at VCU: The Rams are favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 63, while I have VCU leading 36-31 at the half. St. Bonaventure won 70-54 at home earlier this season, so going to take a shot on Virginia Commonwealth in this one.
Georgia Tech at Clemson: Clemson is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 60.5 and I have the Tigers leading 32-25 at the break. A little hesitant to back Clemson here due to the difference in scoring margin in conference games, as Clemson is -4.8 and Georgia Tech is -.2. A revenge game for the Tigers, although Clemson hasn’t been great in that spot.
UAB at Louisiana Tech: La. Tech is favored by .5 with a total of 62 and I have them leading 34-30 in what should be a pretty good game. Louisiana Tech is coming off a tough loss, while the Blazers have run off six straight victories since their loss against Charlotte.
Temple at Cincinnati: The Bearcats are 3.5 with a total of 64, while I have Cincinnati leading 32-29. The Bearcats won 63-60 on the road last week and the Owls have been better than average when avenging a home loss on the road.
Manhattan at Iona: Iona is 2.5 with a total of 58.5 and I have them leading by 7, so a definite lean to the home team, but they fall just shy of the 5-point difference we look for. Manhattan does play tough in the first half. Despite a 4-8 conference record the Jaspers have a scoring margin of +.2 for the first half. Iona is a +3 in the first half. Points could be a little tough to come by between these two, so will just stay away.
Florida Atlantic at UTSA: UTSA is favored by 2.5 with a total of 69 and I have them leading 38-37 at the break. No real interest in playing the over here, as FAU scores 6.6 fewer points on the road than they do overall and also has seen 3.6 fewer first-half points of their conference games.
2/11/21
We won the college play on Wednesday, but a 1-2 day in the NBA left us at 2-2 for the evening, so will see what we can come up with for Thursday. Still, an ugly 39-44 or the season.
Weber State at Montana: This one is even in the first half with a total of 64.5 and I have Montana leading 36-30, so will take the Grizzlies for a first-half play. Montana has been a much-better first half team this season and it’s never easy for visiting teams to go into Dahlberg Arena, where the Grizzlies are 42-7 dating back to the 2017 season. This is the first of two games these two will play, with another one taking place Saturday, and believe the Grizzlies will come out strong in their first home game since Jan. 16.
Eastern Washington at Montana State: Sticking with the Big Sky Conference, we see Eastern Washington is favored by 2.5 on the road with a total of 151 and I have the Bobcats winning 78-77 in what should be a decent game. Not quite enough value for a play on the home dog. Also just missed the over for the first half, as I have it 38-38 and the total is 71.5.
Oregon at Arizona State: A decent game here, where we’ve seen ASU go from a dog to a 2-point favorite despite getting just 43% of the early wagers in the game. I have it 78-78 and the total is 152.5, so not quite enough of an edge. ASU is favored by 1 in the first half and I have them leading by 5.
Idaho at Idaho State: Hide the women and children for this one, as Idaho State is favored by 9 and the total is 132. I have the Bobcats winning by a 74-57 final, but laying nine points with these two teams is a bit tough. The last three games have been decided by two, by four and by two points. The last two games at Holt Arena has seen Idaho State favored by 7 and by 12 and they managed to win by two both times. The Vandals are winless on the season, but you have to expect them to be up a little bit for these next two games against their in-state rivals.
2/10/21
Another bad night in college hoops, as anytime we have a decent day it’s followed by a couple of bad ones. With the 0-2 night, fell to 38-44 on the season, which is certainly a bit of a shock, as the college plays have been among our best the past couple of seasons.
Tulane at Tulsa: The Hurricanes are favored by 7.5 after opening 9 and the total has climbed to 128, while I have Tulsa winning by a score of 69-52, so going to take the under 128 here. The public is on the over a little bit, but on Tulane a bit heavier.
Northern Iowa at Drake: Drake is favored by 9.5 in this after opening 12.5 and the favorite is getting the majority of the wagers in the game. I have Drake winning by 4, but a little tough to know what type of mindset Drake has after suffering their first loss. Definitely lean to the underdog here, but not quite enough to make a play.
East Tennessee at Citadel: East Tennessee is favored by 8 and the total is 154.5, while I have ETS winning 82-78, so the numbers like the over a bit. The first game between the two was 112-84, but as we saw last night, one high-scoring game doesn’t necessarily mean the second game will follow the same script.
Pepperdine at San Francisco: Actually a decent game here, as the Dons are favored by 3.5 at home after opening as 4-point favorites and getting the majority of the wagers. I have Pepperdine winning by 2, as San Francisco hasn’t played since Jan. 23.
VMI at Western Carolina: VMI opened as a 1-point favorite and now Western Carolina is favored by and the total has held at 154.5 on pretty mixed betting. The teams played an 87-61 game the first time, with VMI coming out on top, as Western Carolina struggled from the field. It was a close game at half, but VMI used a 48-24 scoring edge in the second half to pull away for the easy win. The numbers have VMI winning by double-digits once again, 92-81, but will go ahead and take the over here and hope for plenty of points.
2/9/21
We split the two college plays on Monday to lower the record to 38-42 and have a fairly small slate of games on the schedule for Tuesday. Looked at just a couple of games, but in a little more detail, so will see what we can come up with.
Iowa State at TCU: TCU moved from 5.5 to 6.5 after getting 60% of the wagers in the game, while the total has held at 142.5 even though we’re seeing close to two-thirds of the early wagers land on the under. I have TCU winning 73-71, so nothing on the full game. It does get a little more interesting looking at the first half, where the Horned Frogs are -3.5 with a total of 67 and I have TCU leading 40-30 at the break, so will take TCU -3.5 for the first half in this one. Iowa State is outscored by 8.5 points in the first half and 9.8 points for the game, so the Cyclones have been better in the second half, although part of that has to do with teams pulling their starters in the second half. TCU outscores foes by 2.7 in the first half, but has a -1.6 scoring average for the game, so TCU plays better in the first half.
Creighton at Georgetown: Creighton opened 6.5 and the line is up to 7.5 even though Creighton has received less than 40% of the wagers in this revenge game. Georgetown upset Creighton as 14-point dogs earlier this season. I have Creighton winning 81-76, so the numbers like the over 151 a little bit, although Creighton just had a similar time of game against Marquette. Marquette won 89-84 at Creighton and the Jays came back and won a 71-68 decision at Marquette, so they may focus on defense a little bit.
Kent State at Bowling Green: Kent State is favored by 1 with a total of 157 and I have Kent winning 80-88, so will play the full-game over in this one. Both teams shot well, although not necessarily great in their first game of the season, which Kent won 96-91 and don’t see a whole lot of defense being played. Both teams play at a decent tempo and are better offensively than defensively, so will take a shot on the over in this one.
2/8/21
A bit better in the colleges Sunday, although did drop the NBA play in ugly fashion, and just 37-41 on the season in college hoops. Used the same method as Sunday – looking at the first-half and the full-game numbers, and a pair of plays for today.
Greensboro at Furman: Furman is favored by 4 with a total of 143.5, while the first-half line has Furman favored by 2 and a total of 68. I have Furman rolling to the win, but will take them in the first half. Despite having a 13-5 record, Greensboro isn’t the greatest of first-half teams, outscoring foes by an average of 33.4-33.2. Even in conference play, where Greensboro is 8-2 straight-up, they have a first-half scoring margin of +1. Furman has an overall scoring margin of +8.2 in the first half and +4.3 in conference games, so will lay the two points with Furman, as I have them leading 44-30.
Ohio State at Maryland: The Buckeyes are down to 3.5 after opening -4 and getting close to 70% of the wagers, while the total is at 138.5. I have Maryland winning by a 71-70 score, so going to go ahead and take the Terps in this one. This one could come down to the wire and think Maryland can keep it close. The one difference between the two teams is foul shooting, where the Buckeyes are better by a bit, while the other stats are pretty close. Maryland gets a slight edge in strength of schedule.
Gonzaga at BYU: The Zags are favored by 6 in the first half with a total of 73.5and I have Gonzaga leading 40-36. The Zags won by 17 earlier in the season in their first shot at BYU after being upset by the Cougars last year.
Miami at North Carolina: The Tar Heels are favored by 5.5 with a first-half total of 66 and I have UNC leading 35-29. UNC is coming off the win against Duke and could have a little bit of a letdown, so a slow start wouldn’t really be a huge surprise here.
Oklahoma State at Kansas: The Jayhawks opened 4.5 and the line just moved up to 5, with Kansas getting a little more than half the wagers in the game. The total has held pretty steady at 142.5. I have Kansas winning this one 80-70, so the numbers like the over both for the full game and for the first half.
2/7/21
Still stinking it up in college, as we dropped the college play and won the game in the NBA, so went ahead and ran numbers for both full-game and first-half, so a little bit of a mixture of plays.
Cincinnati at Tulane: The Bearcats are favored by 5 with a total of 134 and Cincinnati is 2.5 with a total of 63 for the first half. I have Cincinnati leading 30-28 at halftime and going on to post a 69-61 win, so going to play the first half under 63 in this one. The Bearcats average 3.5 fewer points in the first half of their away games, while Tulane is a little lower scoring at home. The Green Wave had labored a little in the first half recently, averaging 23.8 first-half points through their last five games.
Temple at Wichita State: Wichita State is favored by 8.5 and the total has been bet up a little bit to 141. The Shockers are favored by 4.5 with a total of 66.5 in the first half and I have Wichita leading 35-24 at the break, so will take the first-half under 66.5 in this one.
Georgetown at Villanova: Villanova is favored by 13.5 with a total of 144 and I have the Wildcats winning 83-68, so will take the over 144 here. Villanova won by a 76-63 score earlier this season in a game that saw Georgetown attempt just four foul shots the entire game and the Hoyas could only muster 17 second-half points. If this one plays out a little closer to normal, think we should see enough points to get over the total.
Indiana State at Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa is favored by 1.5 with a total of 139 and I have the Panthers winning 71-67 in a quick revenge game, as Indiana State took the win on Saturday. Northern Iowa is favored by .5 in the first half and I have them leading by 6.
Drexel at Hofstra: Hofstra just moved to 3.5 with a total of 138 and I have the Dutchmen winning 72-66. Hofstra is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 65 and I have it 38-34 for the Dutchmen, so the numbers would side with the over in this one a little bit.
2/6/21
Completely stunk it up last night all the way around, going 0-3 with two of the three losses not even close. Still continue to flounder around the 50% mark combined, with the NBA faring better than the college, which fell to 34-40 last night. Kent wasn’t even close, while Irvine looked good for much of the first half until a late scoring barrage of 15 points in 2:07.
Not a very good slate today, as everything was within five points of the line, so just one play.
Washington State at Oregon State: Oregon State is favored by 1.5 and I have the Beavers leading by 6, so will take Oregon State here. The Cougars upset Oregon last time out and could have a bit of a letdown going up against a team it beat back in December. Neither team shot well in that one, but Wazzu did make eight more free throws on seven more attempts and were a little better from 3-point range. In conference games, the Cougars are outscored by 4.8 points, while Oregon State is a -.5. WSU’s defense hasn’t been as good away from home this season.
Tennessee at Kentucky: The Vols are favored by 2 with a total of 58 and I have Tennessee leading 32-30 in this one. Tennessee has a huge revenge game on tap, but teams don’t overlook Kentucky even if they’re not quite up to previous standards.
North Carolina at Duke: Duke is favored by 2 with a total of 69, while I have Duke leading 38-35. A bit of a down year for both teams so far, as neither one has beaten anybody ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top 20. UNC is 0-3 against those teams this year, while Duke is 0-1.
UCLA at USC: Southern Cal is favored by 2 with a total of 63 and I have the Trojans leading this one 35-31. The first meeting of the year between these two, can see this one sneaking over the total, but both teams play at a little bit of a slower pace than you’d like to see.
Notre Dame at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is favored by 2.5 and I have Notre Dame leading 34-33, which is right on the first-half total of 67. Notre Dame is just 3-9 against teams in Pomeroy’s top 100, while Georgia Tech is 4-4. The Jacks lost to a couple of weak teams to start the season.
2/5/21
A split on Thursday, as we fall to 34-38 on the season with the college plays, which is definitely a disappointment so far. It’s been a case of some bad projections, along with picking and choosing the wrong plays from the list at times. So, will see what we can come up with for Friday.
Bakersfield at Irvine: Irvine is favored by 3 and the first-half total is 60, while I have this one 28-24 in favor of Irvine, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams allow fewer than 30 points in the first half and play at a deliberate pace.
Boise at Nevada: Decent game here, where Boise State is favored by 2 with a total of 68, while I made this one 34-34 at the break.
Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic: A bit of a strange one here, as Western Kentucky opened -6 and the line is now up to 8 on the full-game line with the Hilltoppers getting 45% of the wagers. That’s also transferred to the first-half line, as Western Kentucky is now favored by 4.5 with a total of 65.5. I have FAU leading 35-32, but the Owls’ best player, Ingram, is listed as questionable, which explains a bit of the line move, so just going to stay away from this one.
Akron at Kent State: Kent State is favored by 1 with a total of 71, while I have the Flashes leading by a score of 41-33. Akron had a little bit of action early in the morning, but like Kent in this one, which is a revenge game after Akron came away with a 66-62 win on New Year’s Day, erasing a halftime deficit and going on to take the win. Will take Kent -1 for our final play of the day.
Youngstown at Robert Morris: This one is even with a total of 69 and I have Robert Morris leading 38-36 at the half. The numbers like the over a little bit, but it appears to be one of those games that’s going to be pretty close to the total.
2/4/21
NBA is going OK, but college hoops continue to be a struggle, as I fell to 33-37 last night after dropping both plays. Anyway, on to Thursday, where most of the games were fairly close to the projections.
Cincinnati at Temple: Temple is now favored by .5 with a total of 65 in the first half and I have Temple leading 34-30, so will take the Owls +1 for the lone game tonight. Both teams have struggled a little bit, but Temple is starting to get hit pretty hard on the full-game line. When I began to type this article, the Bearcats were favored by 1, which gave us the five-point difference we tend to look for when making plays, but will go ahead and take the Owls in this spot even though we’ve lost some of the value.
Arizona at Utah: The Wildcats are favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 66.5 and I have Utah leading 36-33, so will take a shot on the Utes +.5 in this one. Arizona has been decent on the road this season, but Utah is always solid at home.
Murray State at Morehead: Strange one here, as the Racers are getting bet pretty big on the full-game line, as Morehead State opened 1.5 and now Murray is favored by 3 with 56% of the wagers, so a much bigger move than we should be seeing. Murray is now favored by 1.5 with a total of 61 and I have this one 33-33 at the break.
Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky: Eastern Kentucky is favored by 1 with a total of 72.5 and I have EKU leading 41-37, so a game I could see going over the total.
Eastern Washington at Idaho: The Eagles are favored by 8.5 with a total of 69.5 and I have Eastern leading 44-31, but not entirely sure I trust either team to get the number of points they’re projected to score. The Vandals did beat Eastern the last time the two teams played last season, so that could be enough to keep EWU focused. Idaho was a 15-point underdog and jumped out to a 41-23 halftime lead and held on for a 74-71 victory. The Eagles do see a bit of a scoring drop on the road and they face the Vandals again on Saturday, although it will be in Cheney, so will just watch this one and see what plays out.
2/3/21
A split on Tuesday to drop us to 33-35 on the season, as our teams are doing better for the full game than they are in the first half. Hope to have some numbers by tomorrow, as not only are the teams doing better for the full game, but those sides we take that don’t cover the first half are doing pretty well in the second half, according to a couple of readers who have emailed, so I’ll dig into that and see what the numbers show. I guess it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, as we actually fared a little better last season on the full-game plays than the first-half plays, although they were all better than we’ve started out the season. Going to try a couple of full-game wagers today just to try and shake things up a little bit, as well as that’s where we have the bigger differences in projections and spreads.
Chattanooga at Western Carolina: Chattanooga opened as a 1-point favorite and now Western Carolina is favored by 1 after getting 28% of the wagers on the full-game line. The total opened 147.5 and has moved to 148, while I have this one 81-79 in favor of Western Carolina, so going to take this one to go over the full-game total. Both teams are decent shooting teams, who don’t defend particularly well, and are decent from the foul line. Chattanooga is a solid 3-point shooting team and Western Carolina is weak against defending the 3-pointer, so thing we can see some points in this one.
UCF at Memphis: Memphis opened 9.5 and the line just hit 11 at a fair number of sportsbooks and I have Memphis winning by a 69-66 final, so going to take a shot on UCF +11 for the full game. I have Memphis leading 34-30 at halftime, where the Tigers are favored by 6, so it makes a little more sense to play this one on the full-game line. Memphis just completely thrashed the Knights two days ago, racing out to a 26-12 lead and never looking back. The Knights are a better team than they showed in that one and think they’ll come out and play with some pride today and give a better effort than we saw on Monday.
2/2/21
We fell to 32-34 in college hoops last night, as Wofford fell behind by 15 in the first half and then used an 18-2 run to move in front, only to see East Tennessee take a one-point halftime lead. Smaller slate of games today, but a couple of plays.
Dayton at Duquesne: Dayton is favored by 1 with a first-half total of 61, while I have Duquesne leading 32-26 at halftime and will take a shot on Duquesne. Dayton won the first game between the two teams 72-63 in Dayton, erasing a one-point halftime deficit and going on to take the win. Duquesne was exceptionally bad in 3-point shooting and from the foul line that game, even worse than normal, which is what did them in. Duquesne is solid defensively and like tham at home in a revenge spot. This one opened even on the full-game line and the Flyers are favored by 2 after getting 71% of the wagers in the game.
Miami, Ohio at Kent: Kent is favored by 5 with a total of 70 and I have Kent leading 42-29 at halftime, so will take a shot on Kent -5 in this one. Kent is a better shooting team and better defensively, but will have to slow down Miami’s outside shooting. Kent will look to take advantage of their speed in this one and should have some success against Miami’s defense.
UNLV at Nevada: The Rebels were just thumped by Nevada, but are getting some action in this one, which has also trickled down to the first-half line. Nevada has moved from 3 to 2.5 with a total of 67 and I have UNLV leading 35-34, so not quite enough of an edge to play Las Vegas in this one.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is favored by 2.5 with a total of 67 and I have the Irish leading 39-30 at halftime, but will stay away from this one due to Wake Forest getting a little bit of action on the full-game line, where the line has moved from Notre Dame -5.5 to 5 even though the home team is getting the majority of wagers in the game.
Akron at Toledo: Toledo is favored by 3 with a total of 70.5 and I have the Rockets leading 40-31 at the half, but much like the game above, will stay away due to the full-game betting, where Akron is getting a little bit of play.
2/1/21
A split on Sunday, with Northwestern unable to complete the comeback, so we’re 32-33 on the season, so still shy of where we need to be. Small slate of games for Monday, so just one play.
East Tennessee State at Wofford: Wofford is favored by 1 with a total of 63 for the first half and I have Wofford leading 39-30, so will take a shot on the home favorite here. ETSU scores three fewer points on the road than they do overall, which allowing the same number and the Terriers score 8.3 more points at home than they do overall, while allowing the same number of points. In conference games, ETSU is +.7 and Wofford is +3.1 in first half scoring margin, so will take Wofford -1.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Texas Tech is getting a lot of full-game action and it’s trickled over to the first half, as the Raiders are favored by 3.5 with a total of 64.5 and I have Tech leading 33-32, but no real interest in playing the Sooners due to the full-game movement.
Georgia Tech at Louisville: Louisville is favored by 2 with a total of 62.5 and I have Louisville leading 32-30, so nothing really happening in this one. Tech’s Bubba Parham is listed as questionable for this one.
Duke at Miami: Duke is favored by 6 with a total of 65 and I have the Blue Devils leading 34-31, so a little too close to the number to take the Hurricanes.
UCF at Memphis: Memphis is favored by 5 with a total of 62 and I have Memphis leading 32-30 at the break, so another one that comes up a little bit shy of having a big enough difference for a play.
Loyola at Missouri State: Loyola is favored by 4 with a total of 63.5 and I have this one 31-31. Loyola completely waxed Missouri State State yesterday, jumping out to a 22-4 lead midway through the first quarter and building a 41-12 lead in the first half before settling for a 41-16 halftime advantage. Missouri State will play better early on that they did yesterday, it’s not like they could do any worse, but no interest in getting involved here.
1/31/21
The usual smaller slate of games for a Sunday, where we’re 31-32 for the season and will have a couple of plays for today.
Sacramento State at Eastern Washington: We had the Eagles -5 in the first half a few days ago and the game was postponed due a positive COVID case in the Eastern camp and it doesn’t look to have affected any of the players, so will come right back with Eastern in this one and lay the five points. The Eagles are getting some full-game action, as the line has moved from EWU -8 to 9 or 9.5 even though the Hornets are getting more than 70% of the early wagers.
Rutgers at Northwestern: Rutgers is favored by 2 with a total of 66 and I have Northwestern leading 38-33 at the break. Rutgers sees 4.5 fewer points away from home, which takes the total out of the equation, but will take the Wildcats +2 in this one. Rutgers is coming off wins against Indiana and Michigan State and may be a little over-valued in this one, while the Wildcats are in the middle of a losing skid. Should be a good spot for Northwestern and they may catch the Knights a little flat at the start.
NC State at Syracuse: Syracuse just hit 2.5 in this one after being favored by 2 earlier this morning and definitely agree with the move, as I have Syracuse leading 40-36. NC State’s best player, Devon Daniels, is out for the rest of the year and it could take the Wolfpack a bit to get used to playing without him, as he averaged more than 32 minutes a game and was the team’s leader in field goal attempts.
UNLV at Nevada: The Wolfpack is favored by 1 and I have the Rebs leading 37-32 at halftime, but not real confident in UNLV away from home this season, so will just stay away from this one. UNLV is just 1-5 away from home, although they do match Nevada in most of the scoring categories. This is the first game in a week for Nevada and not really sure if that will help or hurt the team.
St. John’s at Marquette: Marquette is favored by 2.5 with a total of 71.5 and I have Marquette leading 39-33, so not quite enough of a margin in this one. Marquette gets a slight stats edge and a bit of a strength of schedule advantage.
1/30/21
We had a game postponed for the second straight day, leaving us 30-32 for the season, as we’ve never really gotten on track yet with what have been our better plays for the past couple of years. Even though it’s a big card today, not the greatest from a betting standpoint, as I looked at some of the later games on the schedule.
Stetson at Florida Gulf Coast: One of the best games of the day Friday, as Florida Gulf Coast came away with a 64-63 win over Stetson and it’s a quick rematch. FGCU led 61-55 with 4:38 left in the game, only to see Stetson score 8 straight points to take a 63-61 lead with 1:12 remaining, but the Hatters couldn’t score again and the Eagles took the win. FGCU had a 28-11 free throw advantage in the game and are favored by 1 here with a total of 64. I have Stetson leading 34-31 and will take a shot on the Hatters in the first half of this one.
Stanford at Arizona State: Arizona State is favored by 1 with a first-half total of 69 and I have Stanford leading 33-31 at the break. A little hesitant to take the under here due to the pace that both teams like to play. Stanford is No. 82 on Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted pace ratings and the Sun Devils are No. 15. Stanford is solid defensively, but a bit of a tough spot for the Cardinal, coming in off an overtime win against UCLA, the win at Arizona and they have USC up next, and if Stanford is a little flat it could be the defense that suffers a little.
Toledo at Bowling Green: Toledo is favored by 2 with a total of 74, while I have Toledo leading 41-36. Bowling Green plays at a fast pace, while Bowling Green does not, although the Falcons are much more efficient offensively.
Iowa State at Mississippi State: Miss State is favored by 5 with a total of 63.5 and I have the Rebs leading 36-28. Iowa State gets credit for having played a tougher schedule, but the big difference in stats has Mississippi State leading by 8.
Oakland at Purdue Fort Wayne: This one is even in the first half with a total of 74 and I have Oakland leading 39-38. Oakland took it to Fort Wayne last night 81-66 in a game that was surprisingly low-scoring in the first half, with Oakland leading 31-27. It was 3-0 Fort Wayne with 15:53 left in the first half.
1/29/21
Eastern Washington was postponed last night, so we ended up with just the one play on Rutgers in what was an ugly game. We’re 30-32 on the season and tonight’s slate isn’t that impressive, so just one play and it’s not ideal.
San Diego at Long Beach: Long Beach is favored by 1.5 with a total of 72.5 and I have this one at 36-28 in favor of San Diego, which I don’t put a lot of faith in due to the low number of games played by each team, but will go ahead and take the under 72.5. Even though Long Beach allows 87 points per game, they allow just 36.4 in the first half, while scoring 34.7 points. Long Beach does average 40 points in the second half. San Diego scores 31.7 and allows 27.7. In conference games, San Diego has seen 61 first-half points and Long Beach has seen 71, so think this one could sneak under the number.
Iowa at Illinois: Illinois is favored by 1 with a total of 77 and I have the Illini leading by a 42-39 score at the break in what’s the best game of the evening.
St. Louis at Richmond: Another good game here, Richmond is favored by 1 with a total of 68 and I have the Spiders leading 36-35, so nothing really happening in this one.
Boise State at Colorado State: Boise is favored by 1 with a total of 68.5, while I have CSU leading 37-33, but in no rush to take the Rams after they beat up on Boise a little bit when they played a few days ago. Boise is getting some sharp action of the full-game line, having moved from dog to favorite with less than 40% of the wagers.
New Mexico State at Grand Canyon: Grand Canyon is favored by 2 and the total has moved from 61 to 62, while I have Grand Canyon leading 34-32, so not quite enough of an edge for the over in this one.
Fullerton at Bakersfield: Bakers field is favored by 5 with a total of 61 and I have Bakersfield leading 37-25. Not real sure what to think of this one, as Fullerton has moved from +11 to +9 on the full game line, and they’re getting more than 60% of the wagers, so will just stay away.
1/28/21
A slightly smaller college basketball slate than we’ve been seeing, so we’ll come up with what we can for the day. Just 29-32 on the season, so some catching-up to do.
Michigan State at Rutgers: The Spartans return to the court for the first time in a few weeks, but Rutgers is favored in a big revenge spot, as they were drilled by MSU in East Lansing earlier this month. The Scarlet Knights are -1.5 with a total of 66.5 and I have Rutgers leading 37-30 at halftime. Going to take Rutgers for one of today’s two plays.
Sacramento State at Eastern Washington: The Eagles are favored by 5 in the first half with a total of 66.5 and I have EWU leading 41-28 at half, so will take a shot on EWU. Always mention that I graduated from Eastern anytime I play on or against the Eagles. The Hornets have decent stats, but a huge strength of schedule edge to the Eagles, which is why I have them leading by double digits at the break. The Eagles have gotten a little bit of full-game action, with the line moving from EWU-8.5 to 9 or 9.5 even though Sacramento State is getting more than three-fourths of the wagers.
Stanford at Arizona: Arizona is favored by 4.5 with a total of 67.5 and I have the Wildcats leading 33-30, so just miss on the under here. Both teams have been solid over teams this season, but these teams have seen 54 first-half points or less the last three times they’ve played, but not quite enough value to pull the trigger.
TCU and Kansas: Kansas is favored by 8.5 with a total of 64, while I have Kansas leading 41-33. TCU hasn’t played in over two weeks and failed to break 50 points in either of their last two games, so hesitant to pull the trigger on the over here. These two did see 84 points in the first half three weeks ago in a game Kansas won by almost 30, so not sure if TCU will try to slow things down or not. The Frogs actually play better first-half defense on the road.
UTEP at UTSA: San Antonio is favored by .5 here with a total of 69 and I have the Miners leading 39-38 in a game that has seen a pretty significant full-game drop on the total, which opened 151 and is now at 146, which will just keep me off the total.
1/27/21
Back after some health issues sidelined me the past two days, so hopefully we can get things headed back in the right direction after a recent skid has us 28-32 on what have been some of our better plays over the past few seasons.
Drake at Missouri State: Good game here, where Drake is favored by 2 with a total of 68. I have Missouri State leading by a 36-31 score at the half. Drake rallied with a huge second half to get the win last night and Missouri State is capable of returning the favor tonight. Missouri State led 41-24 in the first half last night but was outscored 42-20 in the second half. A little worried how Missouri State will react to letting last night’s game get away, as we’ve all seen teams that had a game in hand and let it get away and then come out flat the next game.
Utah State at UNLV: Utah State is 3.5 with a total of 63.5, and I have the Rebels leading 37-34 but it is a quick revenge game for Utah State who lost Monday in a strange one. UNLV led 39-34 at halftime and there were only 42 points in the second half, with Utah State outscoring the Rebels 22-20. Jenkins and Hamilton, who each scored 14 points to lead the Rebels, were a combined 2 for 16 from 2-point range, but 6 of 13 from 3-point range. Tempted to take the over but the second half scoring has me a little worried.
BYU at Pepperdine: BYU is favored by 3 with a total of 69 and I have Pepperdine leading 34-34 in a revenge game for the Waves. I’d like a five-point difference between the projection and the line for a play, so would lean to Pepperdine but that’s about it.
East Carolina at UCF: UCF is favored by 3 with a total of 61 and I have Central Florida leading 36-25 at halftime, so going to take a stab on the Knights in this one. East Carolina has the stats advantage, but a huge difference in strength of schedule, as UCF has played Pomeroy’s No. 2 schedule. The Pirates’ best win according to Pomeroy was their victory over No. 166 Charlotte, while UCF has beaten three teams in Pomeroy’s top 85 and the worst team they’ve played this season so far is No. 131 Temple. ECU is ranked No. 146.
1/24/21
When things are going bad you invariably pick the wrong game when you’re trying to narrow it down to a single game and that could well be the case today, as we’ll just look at some of the later starts. Dropped to 27-30, as I’ve dropped three or four in a row here and doing even worse in the NBA, going from 18-10 to 18-16, so a brutal stretch.
Boston U at Lafayette: Lafayette is favored by 3 with a first half total of 70 and I have this one 49-36 in favor of Lafayette, so going to take Lafayette and the over here. The teams played yesterday and Boston University pulled off the upset as 6.5-point dogs, breaking open a 38-38 game at the half and went on to win. Neither team is that strong on defense and while not the greatest shooters, they should be able to score enough to hit 70.
San Diego State at Air Force: San Diego State is favored by 9.5 with a total of 59 in another quick rematch, as the Aztecs thumped Air Force yesterday. I have SD State leading 38-23 at halftime. San Diego State just won 98-61 and led 52-16 at halftime. Air Force managed to lose by 36 points despite shooting 55% from the field and better than 40% from 3-point range. The Falcons made 27 turnovers and were out-rebounded 38-17. Air Force actually led 6-5 with 14:16 left in the first half and were then outscored 78-25, so have to take the Aztecs here, as San Diego State led 83-31 and Air Force scored 30 points in the final 10 minutes.
UMKC at Oral Roberts: Oral Roberts is favored by 3 with a total of 64 and I have it 36-36, but going to pass on this one in which I wanted to take UMKC but the number is too close to the line. Oral Roberts won 60-58 after trailing 45-31 with 14 minutes left in the game and it’s a quick revenge spot for UMKC, who has actually been a good first-half team even though they have a 5-9 record. They’ve lost three straight by a combined 10 points, so they resemble last year’s Idaho team a bit in playing hard but they’re not deep. They have three players who played 39 or all 40 minutes yesterday and two others who played 27 and 31 minutes. They played only eight players the whole game, but two of them saw just four minutes and one minute.
1/23/21
Stuck in a rut, both in college hoops and the NBA, which is going to happen over the course of a long season, but it doesn’t make it any easier. With a dismal first-half effort by FAU, only to see the Owls turn it on in the second half, we fell to 26-28.
LSU at Kentucky: One of the better games of the day, the Wildcats are favored by .5 with a first-half total of 69.5 and I have Kentucky leading 37-36 at the break. The difference between the two is the advantage to Kentucky in strength of schedule.
Northwestern at Penn State: Penn State is favored by 3 with a total of 69.5 and I have this one 38-38, but a little hesitant to take the over, as PSU plays a more defensive game in conference. These two teams have played the toughest schedules in the country, which nullified an advantage each team usually gets when facing other foes.
St. Mary’s at San Francisco: San Francisco is favored by .5 with a total of 60 in what should be a good game. I have San Francisco leading by a score of 32-31.
DePaul at Marquette: Marquette is favored by 5 in the first half with a total of 66.5 and I have the Warriors leading 38-27, so will go ahead and play the home favorite in this spot. DePaul has struggled in conference games and on the road this season.
La Tech at UTEP: This one is even with a total of 65 and I have UTEP leading 39-34 at the break. UTEP did pull off the minor upset last night, so not real anxious to play them here, as we’ve seen some big reversals in rematches. UTEP led wire-to-wire.
Little Rock at Arlington: Little Rock is favored by .5 with a total of 67.5 and I have Arlington leading 41-32. These teams have played three times with Little Rock winning all three. Arlington is one of those teams who has some distorted home numbers, due to the likes of playing Division 3 Hardin Simmons and others. Still a little tempted to take them, but will just stay away.
1/22/21
We dropped below .500 once again this season, which has happened several times already. We typically work our back to the positive side, so hopefully we can continue with that pattern and climb our way back. We’re 26-27 on the season, having failed to put together and sort of streak.
Michigan at Purdue: The Wolverines are favored by 2.5 in the first half of this one with a total of 65.5, while I have this one 35-34 in favor of Michigan for the first half. Purdue gets credit for having played a tougher schedule.
Ball State at Ohio: Ohio is favored by 3 with a total of 69 in the first half, while I have Ohio leading by a score of 41-36 at halftime. Not going to touch the total, as the full-game total has moved from 151 to 146 on even betting.
Louisiana Tech at UTEP: La Tech is favored by .5 with a total of 64 and I have the Miners leading 37-33. La Tech is a little scoring on the road and in conference games, so will just sit this one out.
Bakersfield at Riverside: Riverside is favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 57.5 and I have this one at 29-29 at the break.
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic: Florida Atlantic is favored by 1 with a total of 59.5 and I have FAU leading by a score of 37-27 so going to FAU in this one. Charlotte has a first-half scoring margin of +1.9 and FAU is +11, although Charlotte has played a slightly tougher schedule and FAU’s home stats are a little tough to take at face value, as they thumped Florida College and Florida National. In conference games, Charlotte is -2.7 and FAU is +7.7. Charlotte did lose to Belmont Abbey three games ago in what was officially called an exhibition game. Charlotte did play its big guns almost the whole game, so it’s not a question of playing the second team.
Cal Poly at Irvine: Irvine is favored by 9 in the first half with a total of 63 and I have 36-24 for the Anteaters. Cal Poly struggles to score and Irvine is pretty solid defensively. Cal Poly hasn’t scored more than 52 points in their three away games, scoring just 21.3 points in the first half.
1/21/21
A split on the two plays Wednesday to move to 26-26 on the year, as haven’t been able to go on any type of winning streak this season. Home court is looking like it means a little bit less than normal, which isn’t a surprise due to the lack of fans. But some teams are still showing the typical home and away tendencies regardless.
Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado: The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points on the road and the total is 67, while I have EWU leading 42-31, so will take my alma-mater and grab EWU -1.5. The Eagles are just 1-4 on the road, but visited places like Arizona, Oregon, St. Mary’s and Washington State, losing by three at WSU and at Arizona. They have better stats against tougher competition, so will give them a shot.
USC at Stanford: Southern Cal is 2.5 with a total of 65 for the first half and I have Stanford leading 32-29, but the Cardinal could be missing a couple of key cogs in this one, which is why the full-game line has moved from USC -1 to Trojans -5.5. A little too much uncertainty in this one.
Rutgers at Penn State: Rutgers is favored by .5 with a total of 68 and I have Penn State leading 37-34. The Nittany Lions get credit for having played Ken Pomeroy’s toughest schedule, which is the primary reason they’re predicted to be in the lead at halftime of this one. Rutgers does have better numbers against slightly weaker competition.
Wichita State at Memphis: A good game here, with the Tigers favored by 1.5 and a total of 65 and I have Wichita leading 35-31. Both teams do show slight home and away tendencies, with Wichita State scoring 2.2 fewer points and allowing .9 more and Memphis scores 3.1 more and allows two fewer points. In conference games the Shockers are +5.4 at the half and Memphis is +4.2, so a tough one to make a stand on.
11/20/21
We fell to 25-25 on the season after a dreadful shooting first half in the Akron – Bowling Green game, as both teams were below 30% in the first half. Both were a little better in the second half, with 77 after mustering just 49 points in the first half.
Fordham at Davidson: Davidson is favored by 10.5 in the first half with a total of 57 against offensively-challenged Fordham. I have Davidson leading 38-19 and will take the home favorite in this early start today.
Rhode Island at Duquesne: Rhode Island is favored by 3 with a total of 61 and I have the Rams leading 31-30 at the break. Duquesne actually has a slight edge in first-half stats, while Rhode Island has played the tougher schedule of the two.
East Tennessee State at Western Carolina: ETS is favored by .5 with a total of 69 and I have East Tenn leading by a 38-35 halftime score. Stats are pretty even with the road team getting credit for a tougher schedule.
St. Joe’s at George Mason: George Mason is favored by 4 with a total of 70.5 and I have the home team leading 37-36. St. Joes is a tough team to predict, as their numbers aren’t all that great, but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country.
Mercer at Citadel: Mercer is favored by 4 with a high total of 84, while I have Citadel leading 46-44 at the break, so going to try the over here. Citadel has Ken Pomeroy’s No. 1 adjusted pace rating and Mercer is No. 40. There will be plenty of shot attempts, it’s just a matter of how many of them drop. Should be an entertaining game to say the least if you like a lot of up-and-down play.
Bradley at Illinois State: Bradley is favored by 5 with a total of 66 and I have Bradley leading 39-31 at the half. Bradley has much better numbers, while Illinois State gets a slight edge for strength of schedule, but not nearly enough to account for the scoring difference between the two teams.
Fresno State at Boise State: Boise is favored by 8 with a total of 65.5 and I have Boise leading 35-31 at the half. Fresno hasn’t played bad in the first half, although they take a massive drop on the road, scoring 10 fewer first-half points than they do overall.
1/19/21
After all was said and done ended up with a split on Monday, going 2-2 with a couple of close wins. Fair number of games on the slate today, although most of them are pretty close to our projections, so it will be just one play for today. We’re spinning the wheels with a 26-25 record.
Tennessee at Florida: The Vols are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 64 and I have Tennessee leading 34-32 at halftime. The Gators have dropped three of the last four.
Mississippi at Miss State: Miss State is favored by 1.5 with a total of 61.5 and I have Ole Miss leading 30-29 at halftime. Ole Miss has dropped five of the last games, while the Rebels have won three of the last four games.
Colorado State at Utah State: Utah State is 4.5 and 64.5 in the first half, while I have Utah State leading 36-30 at the break. Colorado State has won 8 of its last 9, while Utah State has won 10 straight including a pair of games over San Diego State.
Butler at DePaul: This one is now even with a total of 63 and I have DePaul leading 33-29. DePaul has played just six games so far.
Buffalo at Kent State: Kent is favored by 2 with a total of 77, while I have Kent State leading 39-36 at the break.
USC at Oregon State: Southern Cal is -6 in the first half with a total of 64.5, while I have the Trojans leading 37-30. The first-half total has dropped 1.5 points from the opening number.
Kansas State at Oklahoma: The Sooners are favored by 8 with a total of 64 and I have the Sooners leading 39-30. Neither team plays at a fast pace and are scoring less in conference games.
Central Michigan at Toledo: Toledo is favored by 8.5 with a total of 74.5 and I have the Rockets leading 45-33 at the break.
Akron at Bowling Green: Bowling Green is favored by 3 with a total of 70.5 and I have this one 38-38 at halftime, so will try the over in this one. Akron scored 34.5 points against teams which allow 34.5, while the Zips allow 34.9 to teams who score 34.8 points. Bowling Green scores 36.4 points against teams who allow 34.9, while allowing 36.5 to teams who score 35.7. Bowling Green has played six home games and has played higher-scoring games at home.
1/18/21
Dropped both plays Sunday to fall to 24-23 on the season. UCF was a flat-out bad play, while Santa Clara drilled us by going 7 for 9 in 3-point attempts in the first half. They were just 4 for 11 in the second half, as the game stayed under the full-game total. More plays than usual, as the numbers are coming up with some overs.
Florida State at Louisville: Decent game here, as Louisville is favored by 1 with a total of 66 for the first half. I have FSU leading 35-32 at the break.
Kansas at Baylor: Baylor is favored by 5 with a first-half total of 66.5 and I have the Bears leading 41-34, so will take the over in this one. Both teams score more than their opponents allow for the season and hold their foes to fewer points, but the plus scoring margin is greater for both teams. Baylor actually plays at a faster pace than Kansas, which was a bit of a surprise.
St. John’s at UConn: The Huskies are favored by 4 with a first-half total of 66.5 and I have UConn leading 41-34 in this one, so will take the over in this one, as well. St. John’s sees 7.7 more first-half points than their foes, while the Huskies see .2 fewer points.
St. Joes at LaSalle: LaSalle is favored by 1 with a total of 68.5 and I have St. Joes leading 34-33. St. Joes has some ugly numbers, but against much tougher competition.
Wilmington at Towson: Wilmington is favored by 1 with a total of 68 and I have Wilmington leading 39-32. Wilmington takes a bit of a drop away from home, so just going to stay away from this one.
West Carolina at Samford: West Carolina is favored by 1 with a total of 77, while I have Samford leading 50-41 in a high-scoring half. Both teams score more than foes allow, while allowing more than their foes average, so will take the over 77 even though it’s a high number.
Wyoming at Air Force: Air Force won yesterday and now Wyoming is favored by 1.5 with a total of 64 and I have this one 37-33 for Air Force. We’ve seen teams playing with revenge bounce back the following day, so want no part of Air Force, but will take the over. It was at 64 at the half on Sunday, with Wyoming leading 36-28.
Sacramento State at Idaho State: This one is even with a total of 58 and I have Idaho State leading 33-27, but another case of not being anxious to go against the Hornets, who lost in overtime yesterday. Idaho State led 30-23 at the break.
1/17/21
We split the two college plays on Saturday to drop to 24-21 on the season. A bit of a smaller slate than we’ve seen on Sundays, so we’ll see what we can come up with.
Memphis at Tulsa: Memphis is -1 and the first-half total is 60.5, while I have Tulsa leading 34-31. Memphis is getting some serious full-game action, moving from a 1.5-point underdog to a 2-point favorite despite getting just 42% of the wagers.
Western Kentucky at Marshall: Decent game here, where Marshall is favored by 1.5 with a total of 71.5 and I have Western Kentucky leading 37-35. Western Kentucky is getting a little full-game action, but not quite enough of a difference between the line and our projection to make a play.
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest: Virginia Tech is favored by 4 and the numbers have Wake Forest leading by 2, but another case where Virginia Tech is getting some full-game action, opening as 7-point favorites and holding there despite Wake getting more than 70% of the wagers.
Santa Clara at San Diego: Santa Clara opened -2 and the line is starting to drop to 1.5 at a lot of shops, while the total is 65. I have San Diego leading 28-25, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams play at a decent pace, but neither is that good offensively.
UCF at Houston: Houston is favored by 8 with a first-half total of 60 and I have the Cougars leading 28-25 in this one. The over is getting a little action in the full-game betting, but will take UCF +8 in this one. The teams played earlier this year and it was 25-25 at the half before Houston pulled away a little in the second half. Houston has Tulsa on deck and the Hurricanes are the only team Houston has lost to this season, so not the greatest of spots for the Cougars.
Dayton at George Washington: Dayton is favored by 4.5 with a total of 65 and I have the Flyers leading 34-32 at the break. The same two play again on Wednesday.
Northern Iowa at Loyola-Chicago: Loyola is favored by 6 with a total of 65.5 in this one and I have the Ramblers leading 33-29. Northern Iowa led 29-28 when the teams played yesterday, but Loyola blew them out in the second half, allowing just eight points in the final 10 minutes.
1/16/21
Dropped last night’s game to fall to 23-20 on the season and will take a quick look at nine games for Saturday. We’re not really looking at the main games today, although most of them will be broadcast on ESPN Plus or another network.
Kent State at Ohio: Ohio is favored by 2 with a first-half total of 71.5 and I have Kent leading 39-37 at halftime. Both teams are decent offensively, but Kent can play defense a little bit, so will stay away.
Arizona State at Oregon State: The Sun Devils are favored by 3 with a total of 69.5 in the first half of this one and I have ASU leading by a score of 40-32 at the break. The Sun Devils have dropped their last three games, all of which were at home.
Loyola Marymount at Pacific: Pacific is -.5 in the first half and the total is 61.5, while I have this one 36-31 for the home team. Pacific has only played five games so far and are one of the slowest teams around in terms of pace.
Davidson at LaSalle: Davidson is favored by 4.5 with a total of 62.5 and I have Davidson leading 30-28 at the break. Davidson is another methodical team, but they’re decent offensively, while LaSalle is better defensively than on offense.
Wofford at Chattanooga: Wofford is favored by 1 with a first-half total of 66.5 and I have Wofford leading 41-29. Wofford is a little better offensively and defensively, although they’re pretty brutal from the charity stripe.
Old Dominion at Rice: Old Dominion is -1.5 with a total of 67.5 and I have this one 36-36 at the break. These two teams played last night and it was 42-29 in favor of Rice at halftime.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State: Georgia State is 3.5 with a total of 72.5 and I have Coastal leading 47-41 at the half, so will take the over in this one. Both teams play at a decent pace and are better offensively than defensively.
George Mason at Rhode Island: Rhode Island is favored by 4 with a total of 64 and I have the Rams with a 36-28 halftime lead.
Louisiana at Texas-Arlington: Arlington is favored by 1.5 and I have Louisiana leading 41-36 in a quick revenge spot for the visitors, who lost last night 91-86 after an 11 for 21 night at the free throw line. Arlington was 24 for 28 and that was the difference.
1/15/21
A couple of close ones fell our direction on Thursday, moving us to 23-19 on the season. A lot of games for Friday, but most of the ones I looked at were pretty close to our projections, so it will just be one play for today.
Marshall at Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky is favored by 2 with a total of 71.5, while I have the Hilltoppers leading 37-32. The stats are pretty much even between the two, while Western Kentucky gets the edge for strength of schedule.
UAB at Charlotte: UAB is favored by .5 and the total is 60, while I have Charlotte leading 31-28 at the half. UAB has a massive stats edge, while Charlotte has played a much-tougher schedule, which is why the numbers have them in front at the break.
Texas State at Little Rock: Little Rock is favored by 3 with a total of 62.5, while I have Little Rock leading 34-27. Little Rock gets small edges in scoring margin and strength of schedule.
UTEP at North Texas: North Texas is favored by 3 and the total is 62.5, while I have North Texas leading 38-31. The full-game total just started moving downward, so will stay clear of this one.
Youngstown at Oakland: Oakland is favored by .5 and the first-half total is 70.5, while I have it 38-38. The full game total here is dropping pretty steady, having moved 2.5 points, so going to sit this one out. Both teams are horrible defensively, but not the greatest of offensive teams.
Robert Morris at Ill-Chicago: Somebody must be out for Robert Morris in this one, as Robert Morris opened a slight favorite, but not all books had the game. Now the home team is favored by 1.5 with a total of 67. I have Robert Morris leading 40-36, but no interest in playing this one due to the uncertainty.
Utah Valley at Seattle: Seattle is 1.5 with a total of 66.5 and I have Seattle leading 35-33 in a battle of pretty bad teams.
Green Bay at Detroit: Detroit is 1.5 with a total of 69.5 and I have Detroit leading 37-33 at the break.
Quinnipac at Monmouth: Monmouth is favored by 5 in the first half in a game where Quinnipac is getting a little bit of action. I have Monmouth leading 43-28 at halftime, so will take a shot on the home favorite in this one. Monmouth gets the scoring edge and has played a tougher slate. Quinnipac has played good defense, but think that’s more of matter of who their opponents have been.
1/14/21
A bit of a smaller slate than we’ve seen the last few days, but a couple of decent games on tap. We’ll look at a couple of the bigger games, but our plays will be coming in the smaller-school contests. We moved to 21-19 on Wednesday, sneaking in there under the total by 1.5 points in the LaSalle game. These are the games with some of the bigger differences between the first-half line and the projected score.
San Diego State at Utah State: Utah State is favored by .5 and the total here is 61, while I have San Diego State leading 34-30. From a stats standpoint the teams are pretty even, but a solid strength of schedule edge to the Aztecs has them projected to lead.
BYU at St. Mary’s: Another solid game, this one is even with a total of 62, while I have BYU leading 35-30. The Cougars get a slight edge in stats and also in strength of schedule. Both teams are coming off losses.
Santa Clara at Pacific: Santa Clara is favored by 1.5 with a total of 61, while I have Pacific leading 33-27. Pacific has just played four games and one of those was against Westwood, so not a whole lot to go off of for the Tigers.
Southern Utah at Eastern Washington: My Eagles are favored by 3 with a total of 71.5 and I have Eastern leading 50-29, so going to take Eastern Washington in this one. The fact that a 2-4 team is favored over a 9-1 team is a bit telling here. The Eagles get a huge strength of schedule edge here, as Pomerot has EWU playing the No. 12 schedule and Southern Utah No. 332. EWU has only played six games, but have faced Arizona, Oregon and St. Mary’s among their foes.
Florida Atlantic at Florida International: Florida International is favored by 3 with a first half total of 67 and I have Florida Atlantic lead by a 39-32 score, so will take FAU +3 for our second play of the day. FAU has been a big first-half team so far this season, owning an overall scoring advantage of +10.1 even though they’re 5-6 overall. They’re +.1 in the first half of road games even though they’re just 2-6 straight-up away from home.
Morehead State at Eastern Illinois: Eastern Illinois is favored by 3 with a total of 62.5, while I have Morehead leading 34-31. Morehead turns the ball over a little too much at times. The teams have pretty comparable scores against some common foes this season.
1/13/21
We split our two games last night and had another postponed. The loss on Kent was a tough one, as Central Michigan scored the final seven points of the half to hand us a half-point loss. We just got enough scoring in the Ohio game to go over by 1.5 points, which is the way first-half betting seems to work, as we’re 20-19 on the season.
Tulsa at Wichita State: Wichita is favored by 2 with a first-half total of 62, while I have the Shockers leading 36-29 at the break. Wichita State did win earlier this year in Tulsa after jumping out to a 43-29 halftime lead and holding on for the 69-65 victory.
Rhode Island at Massachusetts: Rhode Island is 1.5 with a total of 71, while I have the Rams leading 36-34 at halftime, so we’re within a point on both the side and total projections.
Duquesne at Dayton: Dayton is favored by 3.5 with a total of 62.5 and I have the Flyers leading 31-26 at the break. Duquesene has been a different team on the road, scoring and allowing 35 points, compared to scoring 31.7 and allowing 30.5 overall, so will most likely stay clear of the total in this one.
Mercer at Tennessee-Chattnooga: Mercer is favored by .5 with a total of 70.5, while I have Mercer leading by a score of 38-37. Mercer does go uptempo, while Chattanooga is more conventional in terms of pace.
LaSalle at George Mason: George Mason is favored by 2.5 with a total of 63.5 and I have LaSalle leading 30-28, so will take a shot on the under in this one. LaSalle is averaging 25.9 points in the first half of their road games, while George Mason scored fewer than 30 in the first half at home and in conference games, so points should be at a premium here.
Wofford at VMI: Wofford is 3with a total of 68 and I have Wofford leading 42-33 at the break. The Terriers live and die with the 3-pointer, as 57% of their shots from the floor are 3s and VMI is fair at defending the 3-pointer, so will stay clear of this one.
Boise at Wyoming: A rematch of Monday, Boise State is 5.5 with a total of 69 and I have the Broncos leading 42-35. Boise dominated on the offensive glass last game and not so sure they’ll have quite the same success.
1/12/21
Not the best of slates for Tuesday, so we’ll look and see what we can come up with for today. We’ll stick to the smaller games, but look at a few of the bigger ones for those interested.
Kent at Central Michigan: Kent State is favored by 3.5 with a total of 72.5, while I have the Golden Flashes leading 41-31 at the break. Kent has moved from 5.5 to 7 in the full-game betting, even though the betting is pretty much split, so will take a shot on the road favorite in this one.
Miami, Ohio at Ohio: Ohio is 5.5 with a first-half total of 65.5, while I have this one 39-32 for Ohio at the break. Neither teams has shown any drop-off in conference scoring, so will take the over in this one.
Eastern Illinois at SIU-Edwardsville: Eastern Illinois is favored by 4 and the total 66, while I have Edwardsville leading 34-29 at halftime, so going to take a shot on Edwardsville +4.
Eastern Michigan at Toledo: Toledo is favored by 6 with a total of 66.5 and I have Eastern leading 37-36, but EMU takes a huge drop in numbers in conference play, which will be enough to just keep me away from this one.
St. Joes at Davidson: Davidson is favored by 7 in the first half of this one with a total of 68, while I have Davidson leading 39-34 at the break. St. Joes has just one win this season, while playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, so they get a huge edge in AOPR, which is why this one is relatively close as far as the projection goes.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt: Tennessee is favored by 6.5 in the first half of this one to go with a total of 64.5 and I have the Vols leading 37-26 at the break. Tennessee has only played two road games this season, but they’ve started fast in both, leading Missouri 23-6 and grabbing a 20-11 advantage against Texas A & M. Vanderbilt has lost three times at home already this year.
TCU at Oklahoma: The Sooners are 4 with a total of 65.5 and I have Oklahoma leading 39-34 at the break, but the pace of the game gives me a few concerns to play the over.
1/11/21
Got back to .500 here yesterday, but did expect to be a little better than 18-18 on the season at this point. Starting 2-5 didn’t help, but can only march forward and see what happens. A small slate of games with the college football game taking place tonight, so will do what we can.
Temple at SMU: A bit of an early start in this one, where SMU is favored by 6.5 in the first half and the total is 66.5. I have this one 33-33, although Temple has only played three games this year, one of which was a home loss to these same Mustangs. SMU jumped out in front 21-14 in the first 10 minutes and Temple cut the lead to 5 at the half, as SMU won 79-71. The Mustangs shot better than 50% from the field, while Temple was just 25 of 68. Temple hasn’t shot the ball well this year, but think they can keep within the generous numbers here and will take the Owls.
Colorado at Utah: Colorado is 1.5 with a total of 64 in the first half and I have the Buffaloes leading 36-32 at the break. Utah has played four teams in Ken Pomeroy’s top 100 and lost all four, while their four wins have been against teams ranked 141 or lower. Colorado is ranked No. 20.
Uconn at DePaul: The Huskies are favored by 2.5 and I have them leading by 4, so not a whole lot of value in this one. DePaul has played just four games this season, making it tough to get a decent read on the team.
Loyola at Indiana State: Loyola is 3.5 with a total of 65, while I have Loyola leading 30-29 at the break. This is a quick rematch of yesterday’s game where Loyola led 35-27 at the half, but fell apart in the second half and lost the game.
Bradley at Northern Iowa: Another quick rematch here, Northern Iowa is favored by .5 with a total of 65 and I have Bradley leading 34-31. The game was tied at 36 at the half Sunday and Northern Iowa went on to take the win.
Boise State at Wyoming: Boise is 4.5 with a total of 70 in this one and I have the Broncos leading 40-35 at the half. Boise is a solid offensive team, while the Cowboys aren’t particularly strong on defense. Boise will be the toughest team Wyoming has faced this season.
1/10/21
Dropped both plays on Saturday to fall a game under .500, the first time we’ve been below the 50-50 mark since the early season 2-5 start. Have gotten away from the one area where we’ve enjoyed most of our success the past few seasons, which is the smaller conferences, so will get back to focusing on them.
San Francisco at Loyola Marymount: San Francisco is favored by 1.5 and the total for the first half is 65, while I have Loyola leading 34-33 at the break.
Bradley at Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa is favored by .5 with a total of 65.5 and I have Bradley leading 33-32 in this one, so nothing here.
Missouri State at Valparaiso: Missouri State is 1.5 with a first-half total of 68 and I made this one 33-33 at halftime.
Loyola Chicago at Indiana State: Loyola is favored by 4 with a total of 64.5 and I made this one 29-29 at the break. Loyola is one of the best-shooting teams in college basketball, hitting 59% of its 2-pointers and nearly 39% of the team’s 3s. They’re not bad defensively, while Indiana State is a little bit lacking defensively at times, so no rush to play this one.
Illinois State at Evansville: Evansville is favored by 3 with a total of 60.5 and I have Illinois State leading 36-25, so will take the road dog in this one. Evansville won yesterday’s game by 9 in a game that saw Illinois State make eight more turnovers and go 6 for 15 from the foul line. Illinois State did lead at the half, so will give them a shot to keep things close in the first 20 minutes of this one.
Marist at Monmouth: Monmouth is favored by 5 with a total of 67 and I have Monmouth leading by a score of 43-29. Monmouth led by five at halftime of yesterday’s game and went on to win 80-64. Marist hit 60.9% of its shots from 2-point range but were just 3 of 10 from the foul line and Monmouth was 18 of 23, which basically was the difference in the game.
San Jose at Fresno State: Fresno is -7.5 in the first half of this one with a total of 70.5 and I have Fresno leading 39-35 at the break. San Jose has played a tougher schedule, but that’s about all you can say for the Spartans.
Siena at Fairfield: Siena is 5.5 with a total of 60.5 and I have them leading 37-27 in an ugly one. Siena led 40-27 at halftime of yesterday’s game.
1/9/21
Huge slate of college basketball games for Saturday, so we’ll look at most of the big games on the slate. Fell to 17-16 on the season after Purdue didn’t show up in the first half in what ended up being a decent game, although you wouldn’t have known that after watching the first 20 minutes.
Texas at West Virginia: West Virginia is favored by 1 and I have Texas leading 35-31, which is one point below the first-half total of 67. A little hesitant to take Texas here, as the Mountaineers are getting some strong action in the full-game wager, having moved from +1 to -2 despite getting 44% of the wagers.
Ohio State at Rutgers: Rutgers is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 66.5 and I have the Scarlet Knights leading 38-29, so will take a shot on Rutgers in this one.
UCLA at Arizona: The Wildcats are -2 with a first-half total of 65, while I have Arizona leading 35-34 at the break. Arizona has the better stats, but the Bruins do get some credit for having played a tougher slate.
USC at Arizona State: USC is favored by 1 with a first-half total of 70.5 and I have the Trojans leading 39-38 at the break. Would like to take the over here, but the Sun Devils could be a little short-handed in this one, with a couple of players questionable, including Remy Martin.
Oregon at Utah: The Ducks are -.5 with a first-half total of 64.5 and I have Oregon leading 35-33 at the break. The Utes are undefeated at home, while both of Oregon’s losses came away from home.
Alabama at Auburn: Alabama is favored by 3 with a total of 70, while I have the Tide leading 39-36 at the break. Both teams shoot a lot of 3s, but both are somewhat decent at defending it.
Kentucky at Florida: The Gators are 2.5 with a total of 66.5 and I have Florida leading 38-33 in this one. Florida’s 3-point defense is lacking a little, but Kentucky only shoots 30.1% from long range.
Oklahoma at Kansas: Kansas is favored by 3.5 with a total of 68.5 and I have the Jayhawks leading 44-36, so will take the over in this one. The Sooners’ 3-point defense is terrible and Kansas can knock down the outside shot, so think this one has a fair shot at sneaking over the number.
1/8/21
We split our two basketball plays on Thursday, sneaking in there on the college game and losing the NBA play. We’re now 17-15 in college hoops plays and have some what of an ugly schedule. The majority of our projections are fairly close to the lines, so just one play today.
Dayton at Davidson: Davidson is favored by 3.5 in the first half with a total of 60.5 and I have Davidson leading by a 32-27 score. Davidson has dropped two of its last three home games, while Dayton is just 1-1 in true road games this season, so not a whole lot to go on here.
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky is 3.5 in the first half with a total of 67 and I have Western Kentucky leading 37-32. The Hilltoppers have played a tougher schedule and both teams are 8-3 straight-up on the season. This is another back-to-back, with the same two teams meeting here tomorrow.
Rider at Niagara: Niagara is favored by 3.5 with a total of 64.5 and I have this one 36-28 for the home team at the half. Rider is a little better offensively, while Niagara is the better of the two on defense. Niagara has only played two home games this season.
Purdue at Michigan State: The best game of the night sees Michigan State favored by 2.5 with a total of 67.5, while I have Purdue leading 37-34 at the break. The Boilermakers are just 2-5 straight-up on the road this year, but have played tough, having a first-scoring margin of -.5 and are -1.6 in conference play. The Spartans are -4 for a first-half scoring margin in conference games. Both defenses are solid and Purdue shoots slightly better from the field and 3-point range. Going to take a shot on Purdue +2.5 in the first half of this one.
Northern Kentucky at Cleveland State: Cleveland State is favored by 1 and I have the Vikings leading 38-30 at the break. There’s been a little bit of reverse movement against Cleveland State on the full-game line, so a little hesitant to take the Vikings in this one, even though Cleveland State is 6-0 in conference play. Northern Kentucky is 0-3 on the road this season.
Ohio at Toledo: Ohio is getting bet pretty good for the full game and the first half line here is Toledo -2 with a total of 69.5. I have the Rockets leading 39-35 in this one. Jason Preston is questionable for Ohio and would be a huge loss for the Bobcats.
1/7/21
Another split in college hoops Wednesday, as we’re still spinning our wheels with a 16-15 record. Need to get this out early today, so just have overnight spreads and no totals, but will list everything for those who are interested in making other plays.
Iowa at Maryland: Iowa is favored by 3 in the first half and I have them leading by a 38-37 score. The Hawkeyes are seeing about 6.5 fewer points in their conference games than their overall scoring, so the totals projection is a little high in that regard. Maryland is much better at home but have had a rough start to conference games, going just 1-4 straight-up.
Oregon at Colorado: Colorado is down to -1 for the first half and I have the Buffs leading 40-32, so will take Colorado in this one. Oregon’s first-half scoring margin goes down a little in conference games, while Colorado is pretty comparable. The Ducks have had just three true road games and this is the third home game of the season for Colorado. Oregon has been more of a second-half team this season.
USC at Arizona: Arizona is just 1.5 in this one for the first half, which may seem a bit low, although I have the Trojans with a 36-35 advantage due to the difference in schedules. Numbers-wise, there isn’t a huge difference between the teams, but USC has played a more difficult slate of games so far.
Illinois at Northwestern: Illinois is favored by 4 in the first half of this one and I have them leading 42-32 at the break. The Illini have a slight edge in numbers but a huge difference in strength of schedule. But Northwestern is a much better home team, having already knocked off the likes of Michigan State and Ohio State, so one that’s probably better suited to watching than betting.
UCLA at ASU: This one is even for the first half on the overnight line and I have the Sun Devils leading 39-37. Arizona State is just 1-2 at home this year, while the Bruins are 1-2 on the road. First-half stats and strength of schedule numbers are pretty even in this one.
Indiana at Wisconsin: The Badgers are favored by 4 in the first half and I have them leading by a 30-23 score. Both teams see their first half stats take a bit of a hit if looking at just conference games and with a few players questionable in this one, it’s another that may be best to stay away from.
1/6/21
A split last night with the two plays to drop to 15-14 on the season with the college hoops plays, so hopefully can get pick it up a little bit here. Decent-sized slate of games on the schedule today, although a few have been postponed.
Minnesota at Michigan: The Wolverines are favored by 4.5 in the first half with a total of 72, while I have Michigan leading by a score of 38-37, so not much margin for error here.
Seton Hall at Creighton: Creighton is favored by 3 with a total of 70.5 in the first half of this one, while I have Creighton leading by a 39-34 advantage at the break. The Pirates do have a better first-half scoring margin in conference games than they do overall, making this one a tough game to call.
Virginia Tech at Louisville: Louisville is favored by 2 with a total of 61.5 and I have Louisville leading by a 32-27 score. Last year’s two games saw halftime score of 27-27 and 31-26 for Louisville, so they have had a tendency to play low-scoring games. Still, the total is a little lower than you’d like for a play.
Arkansas at Tennessee: The Vols are favored by 4.5 with a total of 67 for the first half, while I have Tennessee leading by a 40-28 score. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season. The Vols have played a tougher schedule so far and will take a shot on the home team in this one.
Rhode Island at Richmond: Richmond is favored by 2 with a total of 68.5 and I have Richmond leading by a score of 35-32. The Spiders are just 2-2 at home of the season.
Oklahoma at Baylor: Baylor is favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 72, while I have the Bears leading 44-34. The halftime score hasn’t exceeded 61 points in the last four meetings between the two teams, so a little reluctant to take over 72 in this one. Both teams can score, but they’re also pretty decent defensive teams.
Pitt at Syracuse: Syracuse is favored by 7 in the first half with a total of 65.5, while I have Syracuse leading 38-35 at the break. Both teams hold the opposition to less than 40% shooting from the field, so will just skip the total in this one.
Boston College at Duke: Duke is favored by 7 with a total of 71, while I have the Blue Devils leading 40-36. Going to take a shot on the over in this one, as BC shoots a lot of 3s and that’s the one area Duke doesn’t defend all that well.
1/5/21
Decent slate of games on the schedule for Tuesday, so we’ll see what we can come up with.
Florida at Alabama: The Tide is favored by 1.5 in the first half of this one and I have Florida with a 38-37 lead at the break, so nothing really brewing in this one.
Rutgers at Michigan State: The Spartans are favored by .5 in the first half of this one and the total is 71, while I have Rutgers leading 40-33 at the break. MSU won the last two meetings, so this one is the Scarlet Knights should be ready for, but always tough to go into East Lansing and get a lot accomplished.
UConn at Marquette: UConn is now favored by .5 in the first half with a total of 65.5, while I have Marquette leading 38-34. This is another one of those games where I’m a little hesitant to play the total, as both teams have seen a little less scoring in the few conference games they’ve played and Uconn ran up the score against Central Conn., which has distorted its scoring average a bit.
North Carolina at Miami: North Carolina is favored by 1 with a total of 66 and I have the Tar Heels leading 33-31. UNC has played a much tougher slate, but the ‘Canes have better numbers to keep the projection close.
Kansas at TCU: Kansas has climbed to 3.5 in this one, as the Jayhawks are a popular full-game wager, while the total is 65. I have Kansas leading 40-35 at the break in this one and while the teams don’t play at the pace I’d like for an over wagers, will go ahead and take a stab on the over due to the difference between the projection and the total.
NC State at Clemson: The Tigers are favored by 2.5 with a first-half total of 63.5 and I have Clemson leading 35-26, so taking a shot on Clemson in this one. The Tigers have played a tougher schedule and the Wolfpack struggled in their lone true road game of the year, losing to St. Louis.
Missouri at Mississippi State: The Tigers are now favored by 1.5 in this one with a total of 65 and I have Missouri leading by a score of 32-30. Mississippi State has won the last three meetings between the two teams.
1/4/21
We fell to 13-13 on the season Sunday, losing the SMU total by a point, which is going to happen frequently with first-half bets. A somewhat small slate of games for Monday, with just a couple of solid games. We’ll take a look at a few of the games now, even though only one place has released first-half lines.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State: Probably the best game of the night, as West Virginia is favored by 1 on the full-game line after opening 1.5 and getting the majority of the wagers. Several other outlets still have the Mountaineers -1.5, so you can expect to see West Virginia -.5 for the first half. I have this one 34-34 at the break, so no real advantage in this one, where the total opened 64.5
Maryland at Indiana: Another decent game, where the first number that came out has the Hoosiers -2.5 in the first half, which is just about right, as the full-game line moved from Indiana -5.5 to Hoosiers -4.5 even though Indiana is getting the bulk of the wager in the morning hours. I have Indiana leading 33-28 at the break in this one. Maryland has started extremely slow in its three road games, although they faced Clemson, Purdue and Wisconsin. The total here is 64.5.
Colorado State at San Diego State: The Aztecs are -4 in the first half of this one, with a total of 63.5 and I have them leading by a score of 34-25. San Diego State has played a tougher schedule so far, but Colorado State got the win on Saturday after falling behind by nine at the half. With the revenge factor for SD State, they may be the right side in this one.
Stanford at Oregon State: We’re seeing Stanford -3.5 in the first half of this one and I have the Cardinals leading by a 33-25 score. Stanford has played a much tougher schedule than the Beavers, but could suffer a bit of a letdown coming off the game against Oregon in which they wilted down the stretch.
Wyoming at Fresno State: The Bulldogs lost to Wyoming as 2-point favorites on Saturday and get another crack at Wyoming in this one, where they’re favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 67.5. Fresno was solid from the field last game at 49.1%, but suffered from 3-point range and at the foul line, which have been their problems all year. I have Fresno with a massive strength of schedule advantage and leading 44-26, so will take a shot on Fresno in a quick revenge situation.
1/3/21
Pretty small slate of college basketball games for Sunday and a few don’t have first-half lines, so we’ll make due with the games that we do have on the slate. As is often the case, there are some days with a few games where you have a lot of plays and others with large schedules where you’re scrounging to find a game or two.
Ohio State at Minnesota: The Buckeyes are favored by .5 points in the first half and the total is 70, while I have Minnesota leading by a 37-31 score. Ohio State has been a better second-half team so far this season, which is the primary reason I have the Gophers leading. The Buckeyes have a scoring margin of +2.9 in the first half and +9.9 in the second half, while the Gophers are +5.6 in the first half and +.8 in the second half. Both teams are 2-2 in conference play, so will take a stab on Minnesota in this one.
Houston at SMU: Houston is favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 64 and I have Houston leading 32-25 at the break here, so the numbers like the under, although SMU has been playing at a pretty brisk pace. Still, the under looks like the way to go if you’re going to play the total, as Houston plays at a really slow pace and SMU had a couple of fast-paced games against weak teams, which isn’t the case here, so will take the under 64 in this one.
Northwestern at Michigan: The Wolverines are favored by 4.5 with a total of 68.5 in this one and I have Northwestern leading 41-35, so will take the Wildcats plus the points in this one. The Wolverines clocked Northwestern both games last year, so definitely one the Wildcats have been looking forward to.
Northern Iowa at Evansville: There’s no lines out on this one, as the two teams played each other Saturday and Evansville pulled off the upset, so I’d give a look to Northern Iowa in this one. I have NIU leading 39-26 and they were -3.5 in the first half on Saturday.
Southern Illinois at Drake: Drake is favored by 6 in the first half and I have Drake leading 32-31. Drake has gotten me once this year, but they may be a little overvalued in this one.
1/2/21
A big slate of games for Saturday and we’ll look at many of the bigger games on the slate, as we dropped to 10-11 on the season. We typically do better in the smaller games on the schedule, but so far this season we’re probably doing a little better with the bigger games, due to schedules played, and some of the teams only having a few games in the books due to COVID.
Iowa at Rutgers: Iowa is favored by 1.5 with a total of 75.5 in the first half and I have Rutgers leading 41-37, so going to take a shot on the Scarlet Knights +1.5 in this one.
Texas at Kansas: Kansas is favored by 2 with a first-half total of 64.5 and I have Kansas leading 36-35 at the break. Both teams are down the list on Pomeroy’s adjusted pace ratings, so will skip the total, as points can be a little misleading on certain teams with one or two high-scoring or low-scoring games taking a toll on the overall numbers.
West Virginia at Oklahoma: Oklahoma is favored by 1 with a total of 68 and I have West Virginia leading 41-35. Much like the game above, will stay away from the total here. West Virginia has played a much-tougher slate so far, which is why they’re predicted to be in front.
LSU at Florida: Florida is favored by 1 with a total of 72.5 and I have the Gators leading 41-36. Tough to play Florida in this one and Johnson’s loss will be felt a lot more in competitive games than it was against Vanderbilt.
Colorado at UCLA: The Bruins are -1 with a total of 64.5 and I have Colorado leading 37-35. These two are No. 270 and No. 345 in adjusted pace ratings, which will keep me off of the total.
Creighton at Providence: Creighton is favored by 2 with a total of 69, while I have Creighton leading by a score of 38-35. Providence is No. 322 in adjusted pace ratings, while Creighton plays a little bit of a faster pace.
Stanford at Oregon: The Ducks are favored by 3 with a total of 66.5 and I have Stanford leading 32-30. The Cardinal have played a tougher slate than the Ducks, with four games against teams in Pomeroy’s top 50. The Ducks have played two teams in the top 50, splitting those two games, as did Stanford in their four. Will take Stanford +3 in the first half here.
1/1/21
We split our two college basketball plays on Thursday and are just 10-10 on the season so far, and a pretty tough slate for Friday. A few teams without much in the way of games played and a few teams who have run up some scores against pretty weak competition, while taking some lumps against average teams.
Marshall at La Tech: La Tech is favored by .5 in the first half and the total is 71.5 and I have Louisiana leading by a score of 37-36, so not much in the way of an edge either with the side or the total.
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina: Georgia State is favored by 2 with a total of 75 for the first half and I have Georgia State leading by a 51-43 score. Georgia State has scored over 100 points against the likes of Toccoa Falls and Carver, as well as their 123-120 win over Georgia Tech in four overtimes, so you have to take their offensive output to be a bit distorted. Coastal Carolina has done the same to an extent, scoring 100 or more points three times against Columbia International and Alice Lloyd. Even though the numbers are on the over pretty strong, will wait until each team has a few more games against better competition.
Old Dominion at Florida International: FIU is favored by .5 with a total of 71 and I have Old Dom leading 36-35, so we’re right on the number in both the side and the total.
Western Kentucky at Charlotte: Western Kentucky is favored by 3 with a first-half total of 63.5, while I have the Hilltoppers leading by a 35-29 margin. Western Kentucky has just a pair of losses to West Virginia and Louisville on the season and wins over Alabama and Memphis, while Charlotte has a road win at Davidson to its credit. The 49ers have lost at home to East Carolina, Georgia State and Appalachian State, so can’t fault the projection and think Western Kentucky is probably the right side, so will take a chance on Western Kentucky in this one.
Arlington at Little Rock: Little Rock is favored by 2 with a total of 68, while I have Arlington leading 48-32. Arlington gets credit for a tough schedule, but what they’ve done is play four decent teams, which is where all their losses came from and also play four weak teams, such as Dallas Christian and Howard Payne, who they crushed. Tough one to call, but would lean with the road team if I had to play.
12/31/20
We’re at 9-9 for the season and 7-4 since moving to our halftime wagers. Fairly small schedule of games for Thursday and a fair-sized slate of games for New Year’s Day.
Michigan at Maryland: The Wolverines are favored by 1.5 in the first half and the total here is 67.5, while I have Maryland leading by a 34-31 margin. Michigan is undefeated on the season, but has just played one game away from home this year, knocking off Nebraska by an 80-69 score. Michigan has the better offensive numbers, while Maryland gets the nod in defense and strength of schedule, so will take Maryland +1.5 for the first half of this one.
Colorado at USC: Southern Cal is favored by 1 with a first half total of 66 and I have the Trojans leading 37-33 at the break. Both of Colorado’s losses have been on the road against solid teams, while the Buffs don’t really have any solid wins. USC has won all four home games and split their two neutral games this season. The stats are pretty comparable between the two.
Minnesota at Wisconsin: The Badgers are 4.5 with a total of 67 in the first half of this one, while I have Wisconsin leading by a 35-26 score. The Gophers have played nine home games and one road game this season, with the lone loss coming in their one away games. The Badgers are coming off a home loss last game.
Utah at UCLA: The Bruins are favored by 4 in the first half of this one and the total is 64, while I have UCLA leading 37-29. Utah is 4-1 on the season, with the loss coming in their lone away game this season and the biggest win the Utes have this season is a season-opening win over the Washington Huskies. The Bruins lost to a pair of decent squads in San Diego State and Ohio State and defeated Marquette, who is rated slightly better than the Utes. Will go ahead and take a shot on the Bruins -4 in this one.
Arizona at Washington: The Wildcats are favored by 4.5 with a total of 64.5 in this one and I have Arizona leading 36-32, so pretty close to the line in this one. UCLA has played a much tougher schedule so far, while Utah has a bit of an edge in stats.
12/30/20
We dropped both college plays last night to fall to 8-9 on the season and have another slate of decent games on tap for today, so we’ll get right to it.
Tennessee at Missouri: Tennessee is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 62 and I have Missouri leading 31-30 at the break, so pretty close on both the side and the total.
Arkansas at Auburn: Arkansas is favored by 2 and the first half total is 69, while I have Auburn leading 39-38 at the break, so the numbers lean to the over in this one. Arkansas’ adjusted tempo rating is pretty low, although the Tigers have shown a tendency to run with uptempo teams.
Seton Hall at Xavier: Xavier is favored by 1.5 in the first half and the total here is 68, while I have the Pirates leading 36-33 at the break, so no real room for error.
Penn State at Indiana: Indiana is favored by 3 and the total is 66, while I have the Hoosiers leading 34-33 at the break.
North Carolina at Georgia Tech: We’re looking at UNC being favored by 1 in the first half of this one with a total of 67.5 and I have the Tar Heels leading by a score of 36-34.
Richmond at Davidson: This one is even for the first half with a total of 67 and I have it 34-34, so another game where we’re pretty close to the line.
Florida at Vanderbilt: The Gators are favored by 4 in the first half and the total is 67, while I have Florida leading 39-27 at the break, so will take the Gators -4 for the lone play today. The Gators have been off for a while and are coming off a loss to Florida State. The team lost Keyontae Johnson in the game against Florida State and he’ll be helping out as a coach while he recovers. Just having him on the bench and in better health will be a big boost to the team. Vanderbilt is 4-2 on the season but doesn’t have a win over a decent team this season and the Gators get credit for having played a much-tougher schedule on the season.
10/29/20
We’re black on the plus side of .500 for the season after Minnesota came through for us last night and now we have a decent slate of games for Tuesday. We’ll look at some of the bigger games on the slate.
Florida State at Clemson: The Tigers are favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 60 and I have Clemson leading by a 32-23 score. The Seminoles are getting some action for the full game, as the line has moved from Clemson -3.5 to 1.5 even though the betting has been pretty even, so will just pass this one.
Mississippi at Alabama: Alabama is favored by 1 in the first half and I have Mississippi leading 33-26. Ole Miss hasn’t played anybody this season and really want no part of them on the road in this spot.
Purdue at Rutgers: Good game here, as Rutgers is favored by 1.5 in the first half and the total is 64. I have Rutgers leading by a 35-32 score, which is a little too close for comfort.
Northwestern at Iowa: The Hawkeyes are favored by 6 in the first half of this one and the total is 75, while I have Northwestern leading by a score of 41-38. Iowa is getting some sharp action for the full game, so another one I’ll just stay away from.
Houston at Tulsa: Houston is favored by 4.5 in the first half and the total is 59.5, while I have the Cougars leading by a 29-25 score and will take the under in this one. Both teams are in the 300s in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted pace ratings, so this should be a slow-moving, low-scoring game.
Miami at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech is favored by 3 with a total of 63 and I have the home team leading 31-24. Virginia Tech is No. 333 in adjusted pace ratings, so will take a shot on the under 63 in this one, as well.
Texas A&M at LSU: LSU is favored by 3.5 in the first half and the total is 66.5, while I have the Tigers leading 40-28. No real interest in this one, as neither team has played much of a schedule and neither has what you can call a quality win so far this season.
12/28/20
We have a couple of back-to-backs on the schedule today and I’m going to bypass those games, not really knowing what to expect out of the teams. There’s no point in venturing into the unknown when you don’t have to. That’s going to have an impact on the number of games we have to look at, but it’s still early in a long season. We managed to sneak in there by a half-point on Sunday to get back to .500 at 7-7.
Colorado at Arizona: The Wildcats are favored by 1.5 in the first half with a total of 64.5, while I have Colorado leading 37-31 at the break. The Buffs have played a tougher schedule than Arizona so far, which is the primary reason I have them leading here. Colorado does get a little bit of an advantage in first half scoring margin, as well. Both teams have won plenty of games, but neither one has a win over a quality program yet.
Maryland at Wisconsin: The Badgers are favored by 5 in the first half with a total of 62.5 and I have Wisconsin leading by a 35-23 margin. Maryland is getting a bit of play in the full-game line, as the Badgers opened -9.5 and the line has stayed there or dropped to 9 despite the home team getting close to 75% of the early wagers in the contest. The total has dropped from 135.5 to 133.
Michigan State at Minnesota: The Spartans are favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 73 and I have Minnesota leading by a 41-38 margin. The full-game total has really dropped, opening at 160.5 and is now all the down to 153, so not real anxious to go against that move, even for a first-half wager. The Spartans are also getting a lot of money for the full game, as the game opened Minnesota -1 and now the Spartans are favored by 2.5. Not really thrilled with this one, but will take a stab on the Gophers +1.5 for the first half and will see what transpires in this one.
Northern Arizona at Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 22.5 over Northern Arizona, who is one of the worst teams in college basketball. I have Gonzaga leading 59-23 at the break, which would put the game over the first-half total of 75. Motivation for the Zags could be a question, as they’re coming off the win against Virginia.
12/27/20
After having some decent games the past few days, that ends in a hurry, as we have a pretty ugly slate of games on tap for Sunday. Back-to-back 2-1 days have us closer to where we want to be, but still just 6-7 for the year after a bit of a rough start.
DePaul at Providence: This might be the best game of the day, but DePaul has only played one game this season and not about to put too much weight to the projection here, as I have Providence leading 38-30 at the half, when the first-half line is Providence -3.5 and the total is 68.
Drake at Indiana State: Interesting game here, as Drake is now favored by 1.5 with a first-half total of 67 and I have Indiana State leading 35-29 at the break. Drake is undefeated but hasn’t played anybody, while Indiana State has a pair of road losses to Purdue and St. Louis, who are both better than Drake. This one was still at Drake -2 when I started writing, but still going to take a stab on the underdog here and take Indiana State +1.5 in the first half.
UCSB at Irvine: Santa Barbara is favored by 1 in the first half with a total of 62.5 and I have UCSB leading 31-29 at the break. Both teams have played Bethesda this season and UCSB won by 71, while Irvine won by 80.
Missouri State at Northern Iowa: Another interesting game, as Missouri State is 3-0 on the season, with three home wins against somewhat dismal competition. Northern Iowa is 1-4, but all four losses have been to decent teams, although not really great ones. The Panthers are -3 in the first half with a total of 66 and I have it 41-30 for the home team.
Illinois State at Loyola: Loyola is favored by 8.5 and the first-half total has just dropped down to 65, which reflects the full-game total dropping. My numbers have this one easily sailing over the total, but Illinois State’s numbers are a bit distorted due to the team’s 177-108 win over Greenville. Illinois State was 62 for 67 in 2-point attempts that game. Going to respect the line move and just sit back and see how this one plays out.
12/26/20
We split our two first-half plays and won the full-game total, but still just 4-6 on the season after a bit of a slow start. Not a huge slate today, so we’ll look at some of the games for both the half and the full game.
Kentucky at Louisville: Louisville is favored by 4.5 with a total of 133.5 for the full game and I have them winning 64-60. The Cardinals are favored by 2.5 in the first half with a total of 63 and I have Kentucky leading by a 33-32 margin at the break.
Ohio State at Northwestern: The Buckeyes are favored by 3.5 with a total of 140.5 and I have Northwestern taking this one by a 79-68 final. Ohio State is favored by 2 in the first half with a total of 66 and I have the Wildcats leading 41-28, so will take a shot on Northwestern +2 for the first half, as Ohio State has been more of a second-half team this season, which is reflected in the first-half margin being greater than the full-game margin.
Houston at UCF: Houston is favored by 7.5 with a total of 137 and my numbers have UCF coming away with a 66-62 decision. The Cougars are favored by 4 in the first half with a total of 64 and I have Houston leading by a 28-27 score, so will play the first half under in this one.
Green Bay at Wright State: Green Bay has really hit rock bottom and find themselves 16-point underdogs to Wright State and a total of 147. I have Wright winning 87-67. Wright State is favored by 9 with a total of 70 for the first half and I have Wright State leading 43-24, which is nearly the same margin as the full game.
Indiana at Illinois: Illinois is favored by 7.5 and I have them winning by an 82-69 score, while the first half line sees Illinois favored by 4 with a total of 68.5 and I have this one 39-30 for the home team at the break.
Virginia vs. Gonzaga: The Zags are favored by 9 with a total of 140 and I have the Bulldogs winning this one 86-68. Gonzaga is favored by 5 with a total of 66.5 for the first half and I have this one much closer early, with GU leading 30-29 and will take a shot on the first half under and hope the Cavs can dictate the pace early.
12/25/20
The Big Ten Conference has stepped it up for college basketball fans this Christmas Day, giving us four games staggered throughout the day, much like the NBA, so at least there’s options for bettors. The biggest game of the day is the early one between Wisconsin at Michigan State.
Wisconsin at Michigan State: The Badgers are favored by 1.5 and the total is 140, while I have Wisconsin winning 79-66. Wisconsin did lose its only true road game of the season at Marquette, who isn’t rated quite as high at the Spartans. Michigan State does have a home win over Duke this year and is coming off a loss to Northwestern to open league play. The Badgers are favored by .5 with a total of 66.5 in the first half. Would normally skip right over this one, but since it’s Christmas and people will want to wager on a few of the TV games, will take a shot on Wisconsin in the first half. The Badgers are +15.4 in the first half and +19.7 for the full game, while State is +4 in the first half and +8.7 for the full game.
Maryland at Purdue: Purdue is -6 with a total of 137.5 in this one and I have them winning 71-63, so pretty close to the lines. The Boilermakers are -3 and 65 in the first half and I have them leading by a score of 34-29, so another one without much edge and I’ll just stay clear of this one.
Michigan at Nebraska: The Wolverines are -8 with a total of 148.5 for the full game and favored by 4 with a total of 69.5 for the first half. Surprisingly, the numbers have this one even, which I don’t really see, as Michigan is clearly better. This is the first true road game of the season for the Wolverines, who haven’t played since Dec. 13, so you have to think they could be a little rusty in the early going. Going to take a shot on Nebraska +4 for the first half, although it’s another case of making a play primarily due to the situation.
Iowa at Minnesota: Iowa is favored by 7.5 with a total of 163.5 and I have the Hawkeyes running away with this one by a 96-82 score. The first half line is Iowa -4 with a total of 78 and I have Iowa leading 45-40 at the break. Iowa is known for its fast style of play, but Minnesota likes to go uptempo, as well, they’re just not as successful as the Hawkeyes. Going to take a stab on the over in this one.
12/23/20
Moving the wrong direction with the college basketball plays, as we’re trying to find our feet a little bit after jumping in a little quicker than normal. A few earlier starts today, so we’ll get right to it.
Illinois at Penn State: Decent game here, where the Illini are favored by 3.5 and the total is 152. The numbers have Illinois winning 84-76. Illinois is just 1-2 in true road games, but their victory was a win against Duke and they close losses to Missouri and Rutgers, a pair of solid teams. Penn State lost to Seton Hall at home.
Rutgers at Ohio State: Ohio State is favored by 2 and I have Rutgers winning 77-72 due to a slight edge in AOPR. Rutgers has a few decent wins this season, including a win at Maryland, while Ohio State saw its lone defeat on the road. Tough game here.
Villanova at Marquette: Villanova is favored by 4 in this one and I have them taking a 75-73 decision in what looks to be a pretty decent game. Villanova has a nice road win at Texas under its belt, while Marquette has lost at home to Oklahoma State and Seton Hall, both good teams, but not quite up to par with Villanova.
UCLA at Oregon: The Ducks are favored by 2 in this one with a total of 139 and I have Oregon winning 72-70, so no real margin for error. UCLA has dropped both away games this season, while the Ducks haven’t beaten anybody as good as UCLA.
Xavier at Creighton: Creighton is favored by 6.5 and the total here is 155.5, while I have Creighton winning 86-79. Both teams like to play at a fast tempo, with Xavier No. 64 in Ken Pomeroy’s pace ratings and Creighton is No. 36. Both teams are in Pomeroy’s top 12 in offensive efficiency and while not bad defensively, both teams are better offensively, so will take a stab on the over in this one.
Providence at Butler: Providence is favored by 1.5 and the numbers have them winning this one 75-67. Butler hasn’t been very good this season, struggling with a poor Western Michigan team to start the season, then dropping their last three games. Providence does have road wins over TCU and Seton Hall in their last two games, so have shown they can play well away from home.
12/22/20
After winning our first two college plays of the year, have turned around and dropped the last three, with Charleston Southern blowing a 10-point halftime lead in style last night and Little Rock never getting untracked. You also see why I’m a proponent of first-half plays, which I’ll switch to once a few more games are in the books. It’s a little more work, but typically yield better results. Of the three losses, two of the tens blew halftime leads and there’s a huge difference between being 2-3 and 4-1.
West Virginia at Kansas: Great game here, where Kansas is favored by 1.5 after opening as 3-point favorites and getting close to 60% of the wagers, so a few people like the Mountaineers in this one. I have this one 75-70 for Kansas, but no interest in going against the reverse movement.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma: Texas Tech is favored by 2.5 in this one and I have the Red Raiders winning by a score of 69-65. This is the first true road game of the year for Tech, who lost to Houston on a neutral court. The Sooners are undefeated at home this year, although they did struggle a bit with TCU, who is really the only decent team they’ve played in Oklahoma.
North Carolina at NC State: The Tar Heels are now favored by 1.5 after opening as a small underdog. UNC has a couple of losses to Iowa and Texas this season, which is no crime, as they’re both solid teams. The Wolfpack isn’t quite in the same class as those teams, but they’ve played a poor schedule so far, losing to the only decent team they’ve played. N.C. State is capable of pulling an upset or two at home, but not so sure it’s here, as I have North Carolina winning 75-63.
Purdue at Iowa: Iowa is favored by 7 in this one and Purdue has dropped a couple of games this season against decent competition. Iowa is coming off a loss to Gonzaga and the game with the Bulldogs did help their strength of schedule rating, but they still trail Purdue in that department. I have this one 85-83, so will take a shot on Purdue +7.
Louisville at Pitt: The Cardinals are now favored by 3 after opening as 1-point favorites and they’re getting 60% of the wagers. I have Louisville winning this one 67-64, so right at the current number. Louisville lost by 37 to Wisconsin last time out in their first road game of the season. After an opening-game stunner at the hands of St. Francis, Pitt was won their last five but hasn’t played anybody as good as Louisville.
St. Mary’s vs. SD State: This one is being played in San Luis Obispo and SD State is favored by 2.5, which is where it opened and the Aztecs are getting 80% of the wagers, so you would expect to see a bit of a line move. I have SD State winning 68-55, but no interest in this one.
12/21/20
We dropped yesterday’s play on Illinois, who wilted a bit in the second half, to fall to 2-1 on the season. A bit of an ugly slate for Monday and there are a few early starts, but we’ll look at some of the later games, with an emphasis on the TV games, which are the ones most people are interested in.
Tulsa at Memphis: Memphis is favored by 8 in this one and the total is 137.5, while I have the Tigers taking a 70-64 victory. Strength of schedule is pretty even in this one, with the Tigers getting the nod for a better scoring margin and for playing at home. Tough one to call, although the numbers lean slightly towards the road dog.
Little Rock at Missouri State: Strange one here, as Missouri State opened -1.5 and have gotten the vast majority of the wagers in the game so far, but Little Rock is now favored by 1. Little Rock with a huge AOPR edge in this one, while Missouri State easily has the better scoring margin. But that’s due to playing a pair of weak foes in their two games this season. I have Little Rock winning 84-68. Will go ahead and take Little Rock -1 for one of today’s two plays.
Murray State at Austin Peay: Murray State opened -4 and has moved to -3.5 even though the Racers are getting more than two-thirds of the early wagers. I have Murray State winning this one 86-74, but a little worried that the Racers have dropped both true road games this season against teams who are pretty comparable to Austin Peay.
Southern Illinois at Butler: Butler is favored by 8.5 in this one and has a huge AOPR edge, while Southern Illinois has a big edge in scoring margin. Southern Illinois did get a win over Murray State, but their other wins came over North Dakota twice, Quincy and SE Missouri. I have Butler winning 76-60 and at 1-2 you wouldn’t think Butler would have a letdown, but might be a little tough to get up for Southern Illinois after playing Villanova and Indiana and having a home-and-home with Providence starting Wednesday.
Hampton at Charleston Southern: Ugly one here, but for some reason it’s on ESPN Plus, so we’ll take a look at this one. Hampton is one of the worst teams in college basketball, although Charleston isn’t much better. Charleston opened -7 and the line has dropped to 5 and I have Charleston winning this one 82-60, so will go against the line move and take the home team, who has the edge in AOPR and scoring margin.
12/20/20
Gonzaga gave us a few anxious moments down the stretch, but they got the job done and Stanford squeaked out the cover in the late game. Will stick with the same format of looking over most of the bigger games on the schedule.
Creighton at UConn: Creighton opened -2 and the line has been bet up to 3.5, as the Jays are getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. I have a decent strength of schedule edge to the visitors, so the numbers agree with the line move and have Creighton predicted to win by an 84-69 final.
Illinois at Rutgers: Rutgers opened -1 and the favorite has flopped to Illinois, who have moved to -2.5 with 58% of the early wagers in the game. The betting percentages don’t really justify a 3.5-point swing in the odds. Another game where the road team gets a decent AOPR advantage, with the Illini playing Ken Pomeroy’s No. 46 schedule and Rutgers at No. 184. I have Illinois winning this one 88-68, so will take the small road favorite in this one.
Oklahoma State at Texas: The Longhorns opened -9 and the line has dropped to 6.5, with two-thirds of the early wagers coming in on the Cowboys. My numbers don’t really agree with the move, as I have Texas winning this one by a 77-61 margin.
Marquette at Xavier: Good game here, where the home team is favored by 3. Marquette has definitely played a tougher schedule, coming in with Pomeroy’s 60th-toughest slate compared to Xavier, who is at No. 195. Xavier did thump a pretty good Oklahoma team last time they played and Marquette has lost a few games to good teams, but also have wins over Wisconsin and Creighton, who are better than anybody Xavier has played this season. I have Marquette winning 75-70.
Providence at Seton Hall: Seton Hall is favored by 3.5 after opening -5 and the Pirates have gotten the majority of the wagers in this one. The Pirates have the edge in scoring margin and strength of schedule, so I have them winning 79-69.
Georgetown at St. Johns: St. Johns has moved to -4 after opening -3.5 and the betting has been pretty even in this one. Scoring margins and AOPR are pretty similar and I have St. Johns winning 85-82.
St. Louis at Minnesota: St. Louis is favored by 3 and the road team has a significant scoring margin edge, while Minnesota gets a slight edge in strength of schedule, although not nearly enough to make me look at the home dog. I have St. Louis winning 85-75.
12/19/20
It’s time to kick things back off with our college basketball plays and for now, we’ll look at some of the bigger games each day until conference play kicks in. A pretty decent card for Saturday, with quality taking over for quantity. I’ll be taking it easy on the number of plays to start, as some teams have fewer games than you like to see to get started.
Gonzaga vs. Iowa: It doesn’t get much bigger than this one, as the Zags opened -3 and the line has moved up to Gonzaga -4.5. This one has on of the largest strength of schedule differences you’ll see. Gonzaga has played Ken Pomeroy’s third-toughest schedule and Iowa has played No. 282. Since my prediction method relies on strength of schedule, or AOPR if you prefer, I have Gonzaga winning by double digits, so will take the Zags in this one.
Louisville vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin opened -4 and the line is up to 6 even though the Badgers are just getting 25% of the early wagers. In no rush to go against the line move here, although I have Wisconsin winning 65-63.
North Carolina vs. Kentucky: Another solid game here, as North Carolina is favored by 3. The line on the game has held steady with 62% of the bets on the Tar Heels. I have Carolina winning 68-62.
UCLA vs. Ohio State: Another game with big line movement, as UCLA is -2 after opening as a 1-point dog. The Bruins have played a more difficult schedule and I have them winning 76-65. The Bruins were favored by 2.5 earlier this morning, so a little buyback on the Buckeyes has occurred.
Colorado State at St. Mary’s: The Gaels opened -5.5 and the line has stayed there with the home team getting close to 80% of the wagers. Colorado State has only played two games this season against weak teams. It’s tough to get a read on the Rams. St. Mary’s has played eight games but struggled a bit against EWU last game. The numbers have St. Mary’s winning 88-61 but will pass due to CSU having just two games under their belts.
Arizona at Stanford: The Cardinal opened -1.5 and the line is up to 2.5. Another game with a huge AOPR difference, with Stanford at No. 54 and Arizona being No. 293. The numbers reflect that difference with a projection of 77-56 for Stanford, so will take the Cardinal for a second play today.
