The Sweet 16 will wrap up Sunday, March 28, with four games on the schedule, so here’s the best betting pick for the Creighton Bluejays vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs showdown at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
The No. 1 Gonzaga enters this West Region clash as a massive 13-point favorite with their moneyline odds at -1000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Zags have been the best team in the country all season long, and the bookies obviously don’t believe the No. 5 Bluejays are capable of pulling off an upset here.
Gonzaga and Creighton haven’t met since 2018. The Bulldogs have easily won their last two encounters with the Bluejays, 103-92 as 6.5-point favorites and 91-74 as 9-point favorites.
The Bluejays smashed Ohio after barely surviving the first round
The Creighton Bluejays were on the verge of elimination in the first round, outlasting the No. 12 UC Santa Barbara 63-62 and failing to cover a 7.5-point spread. They improved a lot on the second round and beat the 13th-seeded Ohio 72-58 as 5.5-point favorites.
The Bluejays dominated the Bobcats, building a 15-point lead until halftime. They held Ohio to just 31.8% shooting from the field while making 45.0% of their field goals and 42.9% of their 3-pointers. Junior guard Marcus Zegarowski dropped 20 points on the Bobcats after tallying 17 on 7-for-11 shooting from the field against the Gauchos.
Zegarowski is leading the way for Creighton this term, racking up 15.7 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game. The Bluejays are scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions (24th in the nation), and their entire starting lineup is averaging points in double figures.
Creighton is allowing 92.6 points per 100 possessions (32nd). The Bluejays rank 25th in opponent field goal percentage (40.2%) and 66th in opponent 3-point percentage (31.5%).
The Zags search for a perfect season
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have won 28 straight games since an opening day, going 8-0 in the Quadrant 1 contests on their way to the Big Dance. Back in the first round, the Zags routed the No. 16 Norfolk State 98-55 before thrashing off the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners in the second round, 87-71.
Sophomore forward Drew Timme went off for 30 points against the Sooners, also adding 13 rebounds and four assists to his tally. The Zags allowed Oklahoma to make 50.0% of its field goals, but they controlled the game in the second half and led by double figures for most of it.
Gonzaga owns the best offensive rating in the country, scoring a whopping 126.3 points per 100 possessions. The Bulldogs also lead the nation in field goal percentage (54.9%) while surrendering 89.2 points per 100 possessions (8th in the country) on 41.7% shooting from the field (83rd) and 32.7% from downtown (107th).
- 0-6 ATS in the last six games against the West Coast Conference
- 2-4 ATS in the last six games as double-digit underdogs
- 6-3 ATS in the last nine games overall
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in March
I think the Bluejays are not an elite defensive team and that will show against the Zags’ mighty offense. Creighton allowed 62 or fewer points in four of its last five outings, but the Bluejays also fell apart in a 73-48 loss to Georgetown during that span.
The Zags possess a height advantage in this matchup, so Drew Timme might have another wonderful game. Gonzaga’s offense should be too much for this Creighton team, and the Bluejays will keep it close only if they shoot the ball extremely well, especially from beyond the arc.
Pick: Take Gonzaga Bulldogs -13.0 at -110
I’ve said that Creighton has to make it rain from downtown, but the Bluejays need to slow down things as much they can as well. If they join the party, the Zags will destroy them easily.
Gonzaga is averaging 74.3 possessions per 40 minutes (8th in the country). However, only one of the Zags’ last five games produced more than 158 points in total. On the other side, the Bluejays’ last four contests went in the under.
Pick: Go under 158.0 points at -110