In their final home game of the season, the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs (26-1, 15-1 MWC) host the Colorado State Rams (19-10, 10-6 MWC) at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl. The game will air on CBS Sports Network at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020.
Colorado State Rams at San Diego State Aztecs ATS Prediction
In the Rams’ last contest, they topped the San Jose State Spartans, 78-71. The Rams had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 35.7 (above their season average of 26.0) and held the Spartans to an effective field goal percentage of 0.430 (below the 0.518 mark opponents have averaged against Colorado State this season). Nico Carvacho had a good outing for Colorado State, finishing with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
The Aztecs lost a close one to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in their last contest, 66-63. UNLV’s turnover percentage was the team’s largest advantage over San Diego State. The Runnin’ Rebels posted a mark of 14.8 (better than their season average of 16.8), while the Aztecs had a rate of 16.1. San Diego State’s Malachi Flynn put together a good game, leading both teams in scoring with 24 points on 7-for-19 shooting.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Flynn scored a game-high 23 points and the Aztecs defeated the Rams 79-57. He also recorded seven assists and six rebounds. The Aztecs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.5 vs. 20.0) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.566 vs. 0.423).
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, San Diego State figures to have a noteworthy edge. The sharp-shooting Aztecs offense ranks 17th in the NCAA in that metric at 0.550, while the bottom-tier Colorado State defense is ranked 282nd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.515).
Colorado State Rams vs. San Diego State Aztecs Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Under
San Diego State averages 23.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 108th in the NCAA. Colorado State ranks 275th in three pointers allowed per game (25.1).
The Aztecs rank 30th in assists per game (15.1) while the Rams rank 172nd in assists allowed per game (13.3).
San Diego State ranks 42nd in steals allowed per game (5.4) while Colorado State ranks 107th (6.2).
The Aztecs rank 37th in rebounds allowed per game (31.7) while the Rams rank 80th (33.3).
San Diego State is second in the country with 1.9 blocks allowed per game while Colorado State is 38th with 2.6 blocks allowed per game.
The Rams have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Colorado State has defeated opponents by an average of 3.8 points.
During their last five games, the Aztecs have scored an average of 77.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 64.4 points per game (5.9 above their season average).