The No. 13 Oregon Ducks (22-7, 11-5 Pac-12) welcome the California Golden Bears (13-16, 7-9 Pac-12) to Matthew Knight Arena as they look to extend their 11-game home winning streak. The game starts at 11 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020, and will air on ESPN2.
Oregon opened as a 17-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 130 points.
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks Free Prediction
In the Golden Bears’ last matchup, they beat the Utah Runnin’ Utes, 86-79, as 1.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (165) were well over the O/U total of 129. The Golden Bears had a superb turnover percentage of 9.0 (better than their season average of 17.5) and had a free throw rate of 0.394 (above their season average of 0.258). California was lifted by Matt Bradley, who was the team’s high scorer with 21 points on 7-for-17 shooting.
The Ducks beat the Oregon State Beavers in their last contest, 69-54, covering as 9.5-point favorites at most Indiana Sportsbooks. The game’s total points (123) came in under the projected point total of 136. Oregon’s 5.6 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Oregon State, who had a rate of 23.2. The Ducks’ mark was better than their season average of 15.4, while the Beavers’ was above their season average of 15.3. Payton Pritchard was the top scorer from either team with 23 points on 9-for-18 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Pritchard had 21 points and eight assists and the Ducks defeated the Golden Bears 77-72 but could not cover as 10.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 149 points, which was 20.5 points above the projected point total of 128.5 points. The Ducks had a better offensive rebounding percentage (28.6 vs. 26.9) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.615 vs. 0.585).
California comes into the game with records of 13-16 straight up (SU) and 14-15 against the spread (ATS). Of the Golden Bears’ 29 games, 15 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oregon owns records of 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS. Of the Ducks’ 29 games, 18 have finished over the total.
The high-octane offense of Oregon (25th in the country with an offensive efficiency of 111.1) will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of California (276th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 104.1). The Ducks figure to have the edge on that side of the ball.
California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – California, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
On the road, California is 2-9 ATS with 6 unders, 4 overs and 1 push.
Oregon is 10-6 ATS at home with 11 overs and 5 unders.
Oregon ranks 43rd in steals per game (7.8) while California ranks 248th (4.0).
The Ducks rank 66th in assists per game (14.4) while the Golden Bears rank 265th (9.1).
Oregon ranks 132nd in three pointers attempted per game (22.2) while California ranks 304th (14.7).
The Ducks rank 138th in rebounds per game (35.7) while the Golden Bears rank 260th (32.9).
Oregon blocks 3.1 opponent shots per game, which is ranked 125th in the NCAA. California ranks 135th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
In its last five outings, California is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Oregon is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Golden Bears’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.0, down from 5.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Ducks have scored an average of 72.4 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.0 points per game (2.1 below their season average).