The No. 6 Butler Bulldogs (14-1, 2-0 Big East) will attempt to continue their five-game winning streak against the Providence Friars (10-6, 3-0 Big East) at Dunkin’ Donuts Center. The game begins at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 10, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 126 points with Butler opening as a 3-point favorite.
Butler Bulldogs vs. Providence Friars ATS Prediction
The Bulldogs come in on a high note after easily covering the 4.5-point spread against the Creighton Bluejays in their last contest, 71-57. The game’s total points (128) came in under the O/U total of 135. The Bulldogs had a superb turnover percentage of 9.3 (better than their season average of 16.0) and held the Bluejays to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.1 (below their season average of 23.4). Sean McDermott fueled Butler with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
The last time the Friars took the court, they edged the Marquette Golden Eagles, 81-80, despite being 5.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (161) were well over the projected point total of 145. Getting to the free throw line was one of Providence’s biggest advantages. They made 36 trips to the line, 13 more than Marquette. Maliek White was Providence’s top scorer with 19 points on 4-for-11 shooting from the field.
After the Friars won all three games against the Bulldogs last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Providence won 80-57. The Friars had a much better free throw rate (0.212 vs. 0.075) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (16.7 vs. 10.0).
Butler comes into the contest with records of 14-1 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Bulldogs are involved, as 10 of their 14 games have gone under the projected point total.
Providence has a solid 10-6 SU record, but they are just 6-9 ATS. In opposition of Butler, games including the Friars have finished over the projected point total 53.3 percent of the time.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Friars are among the NCAA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 60th in offensive rebounding percentage at 33.2 percent. Meanwhile, Butler ranks 12th in the nation at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 78.1 percent. Moreover, the Bulldogs’ defense should have an advantage in terms of effective field goal percentage. They rank 10th in the NCAA with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.423, while the offense of the Friars ranks 278th in effective field goal percentage (0.478).
Butler vs. Providence Betting Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Providence, O/U – Under
On the road, Butler is 4-2 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Providence is 4-3 ATS at home with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Providence ranks 13th in steals per game (9.6) while Butler ranks 211th (4.8).
The Bulldogs rank third in rebounds allowed per game (28.5) while the Friars rank 191st (37.2).
Butler ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (10.0) while Providence ranks 124th (12.6).
In its last five outings, Butler is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Providence is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.2, up from 14.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Friars have scored an average of 68.8 points per game (4.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 67.2 points per game (1.1 above their season average).