The No. 1 Baylor Bears (21-1, 10-0 Big 12) head to Texas to play the Longhorns (14-9, 4-6 Big 12) in what should be a low-scoring game. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 10, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Baylor opened as a 6-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 127.5 points at NJ William Hill Sportsbook.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns ATS Prediction
Although the Bears beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last contest, 78-70, they failed to cover as 13-point favorites. The game’s combined points (148) were well over the projected point total of 129. Baylor’s 10.9 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Oklahoma State, who had a rate of 19.8. The Bears’ mark was better than their season average of 15.0, while the Cowboys’ was above their season average of 16.0. Baylor received a boost from Freddie Gillespie, who had 12 points and 11 rebounds.
In the Longhorns’ last matchup, they lost to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 62-57. They failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (119) were under the O/U total of 129. Texas Tech’s 0.378 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Texas, who had a rate of 0.113. The Red Raiders’ mark was above their season average of 0.276, while the Longhorns’ was below the 0.241 mark opponents have averaged against Texas Tech this season. Texas’ Matt Coleman III had 17 points and seven rebounds in the contest.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Teague scored a game-high 21 points in the first game, in which the Bears defeated the Longhorns 59-44, covering as 8.5-point favorites. He also had six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 103 points, which was 26.5 points below the projected point total of 129.5 points. The Bears made 14 of their 16 free throws (87.5 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (42.2 vs. 23.7).
Baylor comes into the contest with records of 21-1 straight up (SU) and 14-8 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bears’ 22 games, 12 have finished under the total.
Texas is 14-9 SU, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (9-14 ATS). Longhorns games tend to go under the total (60.9 percent).
The inefficient offense of Texas will battle against the elite defense of Baylor. The Longhorns rank 256th in offensive efficiency, while the Bears are ninth in defensive efficiency. The Bears figure to have the edge on that end of the court. Additionally, the Bears rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2 percent), while the Longhorns rank 331st in defensive rebounding percentage (67.2 percent).
Baylor at Texas Betting Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Over
Baylor is 9-2 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 5 unders.
Texas is 4-9 ATS at home with 8 unders and 5 overs.
Baylor ranks 68th in rebounds per game (38.0) while Texas ranks 269th (32.5).
The Bears rank 50th in steals per game (7.8) while the Longhorns rank 208th (5.3).
Texas averages 4.5 blocks per game, which ranks 40th in the country. Baylor ranks 176th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
The Longhorns rank 15th in assists allowed per game (9.8) while the Bears rank 72nd (11.4).
Texas is third in the country with 14.9 three pointers allowed per game while Baylor is 58th with 19.4 three pointers allowed per game.
In its last five contests, Baylor is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Texas is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Bears’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.0, down from 13.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Longhorns have scored an average of 63.2 points per game (2.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.8 points per game (2.0 above their season average).