We continue our prop betting betting for the 2022 NFL season with wide receivers. We will have seven more betting picks on four players for the pass catchers.
If you haven’t had a chance to check out the page with the best prop picks for quarterbacks, you can find it here. Likewise with running running backs, you can find that piece here.
Wide Receiver Prop Bets
The Vikings passing game is set to stay at a high level, and that is highly in part to the ability of their wide receivers. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen form one of the best duos in the league, and they complement each fantastically.
Justin Jefferson Props
Justin Jefferson is the alpha of the group, as he would be on essentially any team. Jefferson brings one of the best skill sets in the NFL and may very well still be improving. Jefferson will command the most volume, and will have the highest average depth target on the team. After a 1400 yard campaign as a rookie, we saw a volume increase translate to a yardage increase in 2021. Jefferson went over 1600 receiving yards in his second year, and it is reasonable to think we will see another uptick in 2022. Oddsmakers however do not agree with that sentiment, setting his yardage total at a relatively modest 1350.5 yards. Jefferson will continue to be the player chewing up the yardage for the Vikings, and the over on his receiving yards is a great bet.
Adam Thielen Props
Let’s not forget about Adam Thielen. Thielen was banged up and missed some time in 2021, and he has the feel of a forgotten player. That holds particularly true when looking at his prop lines. His yardage prop is set at 750.5 receiving yards and his touchdown prop is set at 7.5 receiving touchdowns.
Thielen has missed time in each of the last three seasons. His prop lines seem to indicate the expectation that result happens once again. Thielen missed one game in 2020, but still posted 925 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns on 108 targets. His trajectory held true in 2021. Despite missing four games he still saw 95 targets. On that volume he posted 726 yards and another huge touchdown total, with 10.
That is where I simply cannot make sense of his betting lines. The new coaching staff has expressed how comfortable they are continuing to use Thielen in the red zone where he has a long time rapport with Kirk Cousins. We also saw Thielen land right at his current yardage prop last season despite missing four games and having the lowest yards per catch average of his career. Thielen simply has to stay on the field for 14+ games to cruise over both his yardage and touchdown props.
Prop Pick #1
Prop Pick #2
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Cooper Kupp Props
Let me start by saying Cooper Kupp’s yardage prop may well be the most mis-lined of any we will see this season. Kupp was the best receiver in the NFL last year and his rapport with Matthew Stafford was instant and perfect. Kupp was dominant, lighting up the stat sheet on huge volume. With the addition of Stafford and the departure of Robert Woods, Kupp was elevated to heights he had previously not seen. Kupp saw 191 targets, and he was exceptional with what he did on that massive volume. He turned those targets to 145 catches for 1947 yards and 16 touchdowns. There may be a small regression simply because stats that gaudy are very difficult to repeat. That said, a regression to fewer than 1300 yards would be completely shocking. That 1300 yard figure is significant because that is where his yardage prop is set this season. Take Kupp to continue where he left off and cruise past this mis-lined yardage total.
Elijah Moore Props
Elijah Moore had an uneven rookie campaign, but the ability was quite evident. He stepped on the field as a starter in Week 1, but the offense was one of the slowest starters in the league. Moore started the first three games, then missed a game and was slow to return to form for two more. It was Week 7 of 2021 where Moore showed what he can do and established himself as the Jets top option. He did have his rookie campaign cut short, missing the last five games of the season due to a quad injury. It is the sex week span leading up to that I am focusing on. His production in that span is flying under the radar and by all accounts has continued to entrench himself as the Jets alpha pass catcher.
In that six game span, Moore saw 51 targets. He turned that to 34 catches for 457 yards and five touchdowns. If we extrapolate that sample over a full season, the numbers are quite significant. Moore’s full season expectation would be 100 catches for 1306 yards and 14 touchdowns. These are numbers generally reserved for the league’s elites, and Moore has the ability and opportunity to be just that. It should also be noted the Jets scored 22.8 points per game in that span. That is quite a significant leap from their 18.2 point per game season average.
Moore Props
Let’s take a look at how those extrapolated figures compare to his prop offerings.
Catches – 64.5
Yards – 800.5
Touchdowns – 4.5
Unless there is some wild and unrealistic expectation for rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson, every single prop offering for Moore is set significantly too low. We have the rare instance where a player showed that he is ready to be a star in the league as a rookie. He also has the full support of the coaching staff and we will see a much improved offense as a whole. Everything is moving inn the right direction for Moore and we will see a huge step up in statistical output. Much more of a step up than the minimum required to go over on all of his props.