Welcome back for the 2022 NFL season. It is that time when preseason action is in full effect. That means we are back in the swing of things for full-season player prop betting picks. We will start with quarterbacks before moving on to pass catchers and running backs. Once we have those situated we will move on to the teams and go by division. Be sure to check back for all of that. Now, without any further ado, let’s get on to our 2022 NFL Quarterback prop betting picks.
We will go player by player as opposed to the type of wager for the quarterbacks. Here is a list of our recommended season long QB prop bets & picks for 2022:
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Aaron Rodgers Prop Picks
Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback that is being brushed aside when it comes to prop betting lines for 2022. Of course his top pass catcher Davante Adams has moved on to Oakland, and that has had a major bearing on where Rodgers lines are set. The two lines we will focus on are his passing yards and passing touchdowns. Those two props are set as follows:
Passing yards – 4050.5
Passing Touchdowns – 31.5
Rodgers has never been a quarterback reliant on just one player for production. That dates all the way back to 2008 when he took over as the Packers starter. Both of the above props are almost indicative of him simply playing a full season. He essentially always cruises past those figures simply by playing 15 or more games. We should also remember there is an extra game in the season, so those overs become easier to hit.
Rodgers has played 15 or more games in a total of 12 seasons. He has gone over the 4000 passing yard mark in 10 of those 12 seasons and has never had a season under 3821 passing yards. Rodgers does not have the security blanket of Adams anymore, but I do not believe his numbers suffer. Rodgers has thrived under coach LaFleur and he does well to utilize backs in the passing game. We will see targets spread out more. While no one pass catcher will the role of Adams, a more spread-out production will not affect Rodgers at all.
The same will hold true for his touchdown passes. Over the past two seasons under LaFleur, Rodgers has thrown 48 and 37 touchdown passes. He could see an insane 20% regression under that average and still go over on the touchdown prop of 31.5. The yardage prop is attractive while the touchdown prop is must play.
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Trevor Lawrence Prop Picks
Trevor Lawrence enters his second NFL season. Most importantly, he enters his first NFL season not under supreme NFL failure Urban Meyer. Lawrence and the team as a whole were completely handcuffed by the incompetence of Meyer’s coaching. The season was a complete throwaway, but there will be big steps forward in year two under Doug Pederson.
In 2021, Lawrence completed under 60% of his passes and had 17 total interceptions. Despite this, Lawrence threw for nearly 3700 yards and has a better group of pass catchers this season. It should be noted that Lawrence had just three interceptions in four games after Meyer was fired. All of which in a game with a huge deficit in New England.
What we are going to see is a huge jump in production and efficiency from the 2021 top overall pick. Even in a lost season, the yardage numbers were there, and it will not take much to push him over the 4000.5 yard total. We are also going to see a massive decrease in interceptions, even lower than the 17-game pace of 13.75 once Meyer was relieved of his duties.
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Dak Prescott Prop Picks
Dak Prescott is quietly coming off of a career best season. Prescott set career highs in completions, completion percentage and touchdowns. He tied a career high in passing attempts and had his second best season in passing yardage. His average completion yardage was down, which tells me the Cowboys will clearly stay with a higher volume, less aggressive passing attack.
The emergence of Dalton Schultz at tight end and the return to health of Ezekiel Elliott will help with that. In the first season the Cowboys used that attack, Dak threw for 37 touchdowns. I do not see any reason for regression there, yet his touchdown prop sits at 31.5. Take the over on Dak touchdowns passes.
Joe Burrow Prop Picks
Joe Burrow took a massive step forward in his second season. He lead the Bengals to the Super Bowl but also took a massive step forward statistically. His chemistry with stud rookie wide receiver Jamarr Chase is undeniable. Burrow also has fantastic receiving options in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd returning. Burrow’s jump to 520 passing attempts last year took him to just 17th most in the league.
We are going to see another volume increase again this season. Considering those 520 attempts produced 34 touchdowns last season, and Burrow and his receivers will be a year better, we would assume a higher touchdown prop. Luckily for us, that is not at all the case. Burrow’s passing touchdown prop sits at 33.5 and he is quite an easy over to attack.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Picks
We have one more passing touchdown prop, and we have saved the best one for last. We all know Patrick Mahomes is playing quarterback at a higher level than it has ever been played. You certainly do not need me to tell you that. What makes little sense is how little respect he is being shown by the oddsmakers on his touchdown passes prop. That figure sits at 34.5.
Yes, Tyreek Hill is gone to Miami, but that is truly the lone reason for setting Mahomes touchdown passes prop so low. Mahomes has three seasons under his belt where he has played at least 15 games. in those three seasons, Mahomes has never thrown fewer than 37 touchdown passes in a season. What’s more, his average in those seasons is over 41.5. Travis Kelce returns and there is still ability at the wide receiver position.
This Mahomes prop is essentially a games-played prop that we can still win with fewer than 15 games. Playing at least 15, Mahomes will certainly cruise over his total.