We continue our 2022 NFL season preview with Running Back Prop Betting Picks. If you haven’t had a chance to check out the page with the best prop picks for quarterbacks, you can find it here.
We will explore all of the best yardage and touchdown scoring props for all the running backs across the NFL. Next up will be divisional previews with all of the best betting picks for who to take to win their respective divisions. Then of course we will have the season in full effect. Let’s get to the running backs.
Breece Hall Props
Breece Hall was a very high draft pick for the Jets, selected 36th overall in this year’s draft. The Jets had just Michael Carter at running back to turn to, and looked to upgrade their backfield with the best back in the class. Carter is competent enough, but he is not a game changing type talent. He is better served as a complementary piece, and he will be that complement to Hall. Carter was the Jets lead back last year, but he was simply the best of an underwhelming unit. Carter received 147 carries, turning that to 639 yards and four scores with a 4.3 per carry average.
Enter Hall, who projects to get double digit carries per game, with a season total over 200 something of a certainty. He is the superior talent to Carter and is type of back that could carve out the rare bell cow role in the modern era. Oddsmakers do not believe the rookie gets significant volume, and simply put, have his props set far too low. Hall has his yardage prop set at 830.5 yards and his touchdown prop set at 5.5 rushing touchdowns.
Jets Offense Will Ascend
The Jets offense as a whole will be far better this season. They will have Elijah Moore locked in as their top wide receiver with first round pick Garrett Wilson getting a significant chunk as well. Hall will upgrade the backfield and there will be far more opportunities for sustained drives and snaps for all. It will not take long for the ability of Hall to take over. Even at just 200 carries for the season, Hall would only have to average 4.2 yards per carry to go over his total. The expectation however should be more around 4.5 to 4.6 yards per tote.
On the touchdown side, over 5.5 touchdowns will be extremely attainable. Of 18 backs surpassing 200 carries last season, 16 scored over five touchdowns. Many of which pale in ability when compared to Hall. We will start our running back betting picks with a pair of overs on the rookie.
Prop Pick #1
Prop Bet #2
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Ezekiel Elliot Prop Bets
The Cowboys learned they have a very viable complementary back in Tony Pollard over the past couple seasons. The team asked more of him last year with bell cow Ezekiel Elliott paying truly hurt for the majority of the season. Pollard showed he can fill in wherever needed, and showed great competence as a pass catcher. The team is now looking to use him with Zeke on the field at the same time and it is a great plan.
Where oddsmakers seem to be far off is in that they think Pollard will be taking work from Elliott. Pollard will be involved and get his touches, but I truly believe he is going to be more utilized as a pass catcher than an oft used runner. The Cowboys have been steadfast that Elliott played through injury last year and was just a shell of himself. They have also been steadfast that he remains their guy.
We should probably touch on this “down” season from Elliott. Playing hurt, he still posted a 1000 yard season on 237 carries. Let’s be quite honest, that rushing attempt figure is not going to go down. Yet, Elliott’s rushing total is set at a miniscule 875.5 yards. In six NFL seasons, regardless of games played, Elliott has never rushed for fewer than 979 yards. The over on Zeke’s rushing yards may be the best play on the running back slate.
Derrick Henry Props
Derrick Henry is on the short list of best pure runners in the NFL. That has held true for years now, and Mike Vrabel is not remotely afraid to run his offense through him. Henry is massive and punishing, and that frame has kept him mostly durable despite massive workloads. He will get another workload like those he is accustomed to in 2022. Let’s explore the last three seasons in which the Titans used Henry as the centerpiece of their offense.
In 2019, Henry took over as the bell cow and centerpiece of the offense. In just 15 games, he amassed 303 carries. At 5.1 yards per tote he accumulated 1540 yards and 16 scores. He improved on that masterful season in 2020. Henry had a wild 378 carries that he turned to 2027 yards and 17 scores. A foot injury robbed Henry of half of his season in 2021. However, the usage saw an increase once again. In just half the games he had 219 carries for 937 yards. Had he been healthy, he would have notched another 2000 yard season.
Looking forward to 2022, oddsmakers at most US sportsbooks apparently do not believe Henry will be healthy. They have his yardage prop set at just 1350.5 yards. That is a massive figure for an ordinary back, but not for Henry. Recent seasons tell the story of his expected usage and the output that usage entails. Assuming Henry plays a full season, we could see him surpass that yardage total by upwards of 600 yards.
Damien Harris Props
We have very real clarity for the Patriots backfield, and that is a good thing for Harris. Harris will retain the lead runner role, likely holding off second year Rhamondre Stevenson from taking an expanded role. With the retirement of James White, a slimmed down Stevenson will operate in the pass catching role, leaving Harris to do the dirty running. That includes goal line work and coach Belichick’s preferred goal line approach is pounding it in on the ground.
Just last year, Harris accumulated 15 rushing touchdowns. The lead back for the Pats always scores aplenty. Yet, Harris touchdown prop sits at just 8.5. We will not be too far past midseason once Harris goes over on those touchdowns.
Rashaad Penny Props
It has been a long path for Rashaad Penny, but he has finally gotten to a high end production point. The former first round pick, once thought a bust, was arguably the league’s best back down the stretch last season. He has dominated first team touches in training camp and now rookie Kenny Walker has suffered an injury.
Penny is primed for an explosion this season. Kenny Walker may well be an afterthought, and we know Pete Carroll has no qualms moth balling highly drafted running backs. Look no further than Penny for evidence.
Penny averaged an other worldly 6.3 yards per carry last season. He did not take over the backfield until late in the season, but announced himself when he did. With just six games as the lead, Penny accumulated 749 yards and six scores. The oddsmakers do not seem to believe that was real. They have his rushing yardage prop set at 800.5 yards and his touchdown prop set at 6.5. We could see the largest differential form betting total to actual output for any back on these Penny overs.