Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Betting Pick & Prediction – 10/17/2024

Week 7 of the NFL season will kick off with Thursday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Both of these teams are at or below .500 for the season and are looking for a win to steer themselves in the right direction. The game is listed as a pick ’em, while the total is set at a low 37.5 points.

Broncos vs Saints Betting Odds

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Thursday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Denver Broncos (3-3) and New Orleans Saints (2-4). Oddsmakers peg the Broncos as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 55%, leaving the Saints with a 45% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Broncos -2.5 with a Game Total of 37.0.

Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #9 in the league while allowing just 309 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #6-least yards per game: 198. That's not to take anything away from their run defense, though, which checks in at #7 in yards per carry (4.02). The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 120 yards per game (#5-best). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Denver's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #7-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Denver given that the Saints have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.55 yards per target (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #30 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 189 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #25 with 3.86 yards per carry.

New Orleans's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 391 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #4-most yards per carry: 5.31. Saints defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Saints check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 192 yards per game (#25 in football). Their run game has ranked #20 with 4.07 yards per attempt on the ground.

Broncos Hope to Continue Winning Ways Away From Home

The Denver Broncos are 3-3 this season, coming off of a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in their last outing in Week 6. Denver has dealt with a lack of consistency offensively this year, as a product of rolling with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. But Nix has shown flashes of brilliance this season and will look to move his team to 3-1 on the road with a win in this matchup. With wins over the Jets and Buccaneers on the road already this season, Nix and the Broncos defense have both stepped up at times away from Denver and they will aim to do so again on Thursday Night Football.

Saints Aim to Snap Losing Streak at Home

Lately, the New Orleans Saints have been playing some dreadful football. They have lost four games in a row, falling to 2-4 on the season. And with quarterback Derek Carr dealing with an oblique injury, the Saints could be without their starting quarterback for the second game in a row. Backup quarterback Spencer Rattler wasn’t bad in the first half of his first start as a Saint against the Atlanta Falcons. But things went off the rails for Rattler and the Saints defense in the second half of that contest, something they will need to prevent to get a win here.

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

Final Score: Denver Broncos 20.37 vs New Orleans Saints 20.94

No matter who is starting at quarterback this week for the Saints, we will take New Orleans to win at home on Thursday Night Football. Asking Nix to deliver on a short week on the road in this Broncos vs Saints contest is a tall task for a rookie and we expect him to falter, while the Saints defense should turn things around after giving up 51 points to the Bucs in Week 6./p>

Be sure to check out all our free NFL picks here.