On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints will host the Atlanta Falcons at Caesars Superdome. Both of these NFC South teams are below .500 on the year, but they are both within two games of the top spot in the division as well. In our NFL betting picks for Sunday, we break down Falcons vs Saints in a huge game in the NFC South playoff race.
Falcons vs Saints Betting Pick
ℹ️ The Pick: | Under 43.5 |
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This game will be played at Caesars Superdome at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, December 18, 2022.
Why Bet the Under:
✅ The Falcons are giving Desmond Ridder his first career start at quarterback for this game. He has never taken a snap at the NFL level, which will mean some growing pains that will hurt the Falcons on offense.
✅ The Saints are in the bottom half of the league in scoring themselves, averaging just 20.4 points per game. With Michael Thomas on IR, the Saints offense has been getting worse. Combine that with the Falcons starting an inexperienced quarterback, and an under should come in here.
✅ Both teams have seen a slight majority of their games go under the total this season. New Orleans and Atlanta have both gone under the total in seven of their 13 games so far, and we should see them do so again.
NFL
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
ATL | Passing | NO |
---|---|---|
327 | CMP | 333 |
530 | ATT | 558 |
61.7 | CMP% | 59.7 |
207.3 | YDS/GM | 207.3 |
7.1 | Y/A | 6.8 |
6.2 | NY/A | 6.0 |
17 | INT | 18 |
40 | SK | 34 |
Defense/Offense
ATL | Passing | NO |
---|---|---|
340 | CMP | 406 |
549 | ATT | 606 |
61.9 | CMP% | 67.0 |
202.9 | YDS/GM | 234.7 |
6.8 | Y/A | 7.0 |
5.8 | NY/A | 6.2 |
8 | INT | 11 |
42 | SK | 35 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
ATL | Rushing | NO |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
522 | ATT | 462 |
2159 | YDS | 2038 |
127.0 | Y/G | 119.9 |
4.1 | Y/A | 4.4 |
14 | TD | 10 |
0.8 | TD/G | 0.6 |
Defense/Offense
ATL | Rushing | NO |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
499 | ATT | 480 |
2009 | YDS | 1742 |
118.2 | Y/G | 102.5 |
4.0 | Y/A | 3.6 |
11 | TD | 13 |
0.6 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
ATL | Special Teams | NO |
---|---|---|
33 | Punts/Ret | 29 |
239 | Punt/Yds | 163 |
7.2 | Punt/Y/R | 5.6 |
14 | Kick Off/Ret | 12 |
236 | Kick Off/Yds | 225 |
16.9 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 18.8 |
Defense/Offense
ATL | Special Teams | NO |
---|---|---|
31 | Punts/Ret | 32 |
353 | Punt/Yds | 392 |
11.4 | Punt/Y/R | 12.3 |
11 | Kick Off/Ret | 22 |
261 | Kick Off/Yds | 466 |
23.7 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 21.2 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
ATL | Scoring | NO |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
14 | RshTD | 10 |
17 | RecTD | 22 |
32 | FGM | 30 |
37 | FGA | 35 |
18.9 | Pts/G | 19.2 |
Defense/Offense
ATL | Scoring | NO |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
11 | RshTD | 13 |
24 | RecTD | 28 |
39 | FGM | 30 |
41 | FGA | 37 |
21.9 | Pts/G | 23.6 |
Team Advanced Defense
ATL | Defense | NO |
---|---|---|
23.9% | Bltz% | 22.5% |
7.9% | Hrry% | 7.3% |
9.5% | QB Hit% | 6.8% |
23.0% | QB Prss% | 18.7% |
Injuries
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Beau Brinkley | LS | Achilles | Out | 12/18/22 |
Casey Hayward | CB | Shoulder | Out | 12/18/22 |
Chuma Edoga | OT | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Derrick Tangelo | DL | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Frank Darby | WR | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Jalen Mayfield | OL | Back | Out | 12/18/22 |
Jared Bernhardt | WR | Groin | Out | 12/18/22 |
John FitzPatrick | TE | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Jovante Moffatt | S | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Justin Shaffer | G | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Kyle Pitts | TE | Knee (mcl) | Out | 12/18/22 |
Marcus Mariota | QB | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Matt Dickerson | DE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Rashad Fenton | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Ta'Quon Graham | DL | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Tyler Vrabel | OL | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Vincent Taylor | DT | Achilles | Out | 12/18/22 |
Arnold Ebiketie | OLB | Forearm | Questionable | 12/14/22 |
Jalen Dalton | DT | Toe | Questionable | 12/14/22 |
KhaDarel Hodge | WR | Illness | Questionable | 12/16/22 |
Matt Hennessy | OL | Knee | Questionable | 12/18/22 |
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Albert Huggins | DT | Leg | Out | 12/18/22 |
Deonte Harty | WR | Foot | Out | 12/18/22 |
D'Marco Jackson | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Drew Desjarlais | OL | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Dwayne Washington | RB | Illness | Out | 12/18/22 |
Eno Benjamin | RB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Ethan Greenidge | OT | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Forrest Lamp | G | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Isaiah Pryor | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 12/18/22 |
Lewis Kidd | OL | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/18/22 |
Mark Ingram II | RB | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | Out | 12/18/22 |
Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | Out | 12/18/22 |
P.J. Williams | CB | Knee | Out | 12/18/22 |
Smoke Monday | S | Knee (acl) | Out | 12/18/22 |
Zack Baun | LB | Ankle | Out | 12/18/22 |
Cameron Jordan | DE | Foot | Questionable | 12/16/22 |
Chase Hansen | LB | Knee | Questionable | 12/17/22 |
Erik McCoy | OL | Calf | Questionable | 12/17/22 |
Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | Probable | 12/18/22 |
J.T. Gray | DB | Hamstring | Probable | 12/18/22 |
Juwan Johnson | TE | Ankle | Probable | 12/18/22 |
Payton Turner | DE | Ankle | Probable | 12/18/22 |
Pete Werner | LB | Ankle | Probable | 12/18/22 |
Ryan Ramczyk | OT | Knee | Probable | 12/16/22 |
Wil Lutz | K | Illness | Probable | 12/16/22 |
Betting Trends
ATL | Betting Trends | NO |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
18.67 | Avg Score | 14.33 |
20.67 | Avg Opp Score | 16.67 |
AWAY | HOME | |
0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-1-0 |
0-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
15 | Avg Score | 21.33 |
26.33 | Avg Opp Score | 15.67 |
ATL | Betting Trends | NO |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
17.6 | Avg Score | 13.2 |
21.4 | Avg Opp Score | 19.4 |
AWAY | HOME | |
1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-2-0 |
2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
17.4 | Avg Score | 25.8 |
24.6 | Avg Opp Score | 21.8 |
ATL | Betting Trends | NO |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
4-6-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-7-0 |
4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
20.8 | Avg Score | 21.4 |
23.1 | Avg Opp Score | 22.9 |
AWAY | HOME | |
3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-6-0 |
5-4-1 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
19.2 | Avg Score | 20.2 |
24.9 | Avg Opp Score | 21.4 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of their bye week coming into Week 15, and they have decided to make a quarterback change. Desmond Ridder is set to make his first career start this week, as he will be taking his first snaps as a professional football player. Ridder helped get Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff in his last season of action in college, and will hope for similar success in the pros with the Falcons.
Atlanta’s running game will be instrumental in getting Ridder up and running as a professional quarterback. But they will need more from Cordarrelle Patterson to help Ridder succeed. Patterson has not rushed for more than 60 yards since September, and he will need to be more effective to make life easier on his rookie quarterback.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are also coming off of their bye week, as they suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the week before on Monday Night Football. The Saints offense was awful in that game, and their defense gave up two touchdowns in the final three minutes to turn what should have been a win into a loss. Here, the Saints will aim to take advantage of Atlanta’s quarterback situation to pick up a much-needed victory.
The Saints rank 10th against the pass on the season, which bodes well for them against a completely inexperienced quarterback. If they can avoid letting up with that facet of their defense, the Saints could move to within a game of first place in the NFC South with just a few games left to play.