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Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Last year’s Atlanta Falcons were predictable offensively, but that did not stop them from a respectable 7-10 season. This year, the Falcons are committing to their young quarterback from last year’s NFL Draft, who they have paired with an exciting young running back that they hope will make their offense one that could appear in the playoffs. Here, we make our prediction for the Falcons in the season win total market, as a part of our 2023 Atlanta Falcons season preview.
2023 Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
---|---|
Caesars Sportsbook | 8.5 |
BetMGM | 8.5 |
Atlanta Falcons Futures Betting Odds
Standings Data
2022 | 2021 | |
---|---|---|
Actual Record | 7-10 | 7-10 |
Point Differential | -21 | -146 |
ATS W/L | 9-8 | 6-10-1 |
Over/Under Record | 7-10 | 7-10 |
Record in Division Games | 2-4 | 2-4 |
Atlanta Falcons Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, Bijan Robinson
Key Departures: Isaiah Oliver, Rashaan Evans
The biggest move for the Falcons came in the draft, when Atlanta selected Bijan Robinson at running back. The Falcons had a stable of capable backs last year, but lacked the true bell cow back they needed to perform at a high level offensively on a consistent basis. But with Robinson in the backfield, along with those other options, the Falcons should be able to make up for any shortcomings that they have in their passing game.
Atlanta Falcons Offensive Stats
2022 (Rank) | 2021 (Rank) | |
---|---|---|
Yards Per Play | 5.4 (T-14th) | 5.1 (T-22nd) |
Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.9 (T-4th) | 3.7 (T-29th) |
Yards Per Pass Attempt | 7.1 (T-10th) | 7.0 (T-18th) |
Points Per Game | 21.5 (T-15th) | 18.4 (26th) |
Turnovers | 21 (T-8th) | 26 (T-25th) |
It was clear that the Falcons planned on running the ball as often as possible on offense in 2022. That is likely to be the case again in 2023, especially with Bijan Robinson in the backfield. The big question for the Falcons, though, will be whether Desmond Ridder can deliver more in the passing game than he did during what action he got in his rookie season. The answer to that question will likely determine how this season goes for a Falcons team that was pretty average on the offensive side of the ball.
Atlanta Falcons Defensive Stats
2022 (Rank) | 2021 (Rank) | |
---|---|---|
Yards Per Play Allowed | 5.7 (T-24th) | 5.6 (T-20th) |
Yards Per Rush Attempt Allowed | 4.4 (T-15th) | 4.3 (T-13th) |
Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed | 7.0 (T-25th) | 6.8 (T-22nd) |
Points Per Game Allowed | 22.7 (23rd) | 27.0 (T-29th) |
Takeaways | 17 (T-27th) | 20 (T-19th) |
Defensively, the Falcons were a below average squad last year, thanks in large part to their inability to stop the pass and get takeaways. Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree are a part of this defense heading into 2023, with the question being how much those veterans have left in the tank. With the quarterback situation for the Falcons looking iffy, this defense will have plenty of pressure on it to perform.
Positives & Negatives
The biggest positive for the Falcons this season has to be their running game. Bijan Robinson will allow the Falcons to use players like Cordarrelle Patterson in more creative ways, rather than just lining them up to run the ball in a traditional fashion. This running back group should also help relieve some of the pressure on Ridder, which is great news.
However, the Falcons may not be able to count on Ridder to do much through the air, as he averaged fewer yards per pass attempt than John Wolford and Cooper Rush last season. If that facet of the Falcons’ game does not get markedly better in 2023, the Falcons could fail to reach the playoffs again in a very winnable NFC South.
2023 Atlanta Falcons Win Total Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins
Our best bet in the season win total market for the Falcons is the under, as Atlanta should still be a sub-.500 team in 2023. Their lack of a reliable passing game will render the improvements that they made elsewhere not quite irrelevant, but not as impactful as they could be. Look for the Falcons to win six or seven games and for questions to arise about Ridder’s viability as a starting quarterback in this league.