UFC Vegas 48
UFC Vegas 48 kicks off this Saturday at 4PM EST. The fight card takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card is scheduled for 12 fights.
The fight card itself is underwhelming in terms of star power, as there is essentially none. That said, I think it is quite reasonable to expect a good amount of excitement. We will get finishes. Lots and lots of finishes. Eight of the twelve fights are expected to end inside the distance by the betting lines. Of the four that are not, none have higher than a +150 fight to end inside the distance line. We also get real betting opportunity on this card. Much more on that in a bit.
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UFC Vegas 48 took a huge hit when its main event needed to be rescheduled. The Rafael Fiziev vs Rafael Dos Anjos fight required a date change when Fiziev ran into Visa issues. That fight will now co-headline the UFC 272 event.
Main Event Look
The make shift main event has the potential to be an extremely fun but likely short fight. The Jamahal Hill vs Johnny Walker light heavyweight matchup is now at the top of UFC Vegas 48. With the move to the main event slot, the fight is now five rounds.
These two bomb throwers will clash in a fight that has a -450 line to end inside the distance. When these fighters win, it is generally by knock out. Hill has seen three of his four UFC wins come by way of knock out. Walker has seen all four of his UFC wins come by way of knock out. While we will not have a locked in betting play for this fight, there simply should not be flat bets on either side. The ITD lines are absolutely the way to attack either side in this fight.
The oddsmakers have the odds set at Hill -260, which feels wildly wide. Hill should probably be favored, but the line should be short. It feels nonsensical to even consider either of these fighters to be nearly three to one better than the other.
Hill
This will be a new and unique test for Hill in terms of UFC opponent. Hill has remarkably fought almost exclusively fighters that are better grapplers than strikers in his UFC tenure. He has gotten the better end of mixed results, but now fights a truly powerful striker for the first time. This will be the first time in the octagon Hill has to contend with power that can match or trump his own coming back at him. Hill will also be seeing a new puzzle of a fighter that has 2” of height and 3” of reach on him. This is despite the fact that Hill is 6’4” tall with a 79” reach.
Walker
Johnny Walker’s hype has officially died, as he has lost three of four fights. He has shown his chin can be tested and that he does have some holes when it comes to grappling and keeping cardio in a grappling heavy fight. That said, it is unlikely grappling is a concern in this fight, as it is a race to a knock out.
When looking at prices, particularly ITD lines, there is a clear value side. We have to lay -155 for Hill ITD while we get +275 for Walker ITD. In a fight that is quite close to a coin flip, your action should attack that value side of Walker. Someone is going out early in this fun main event, and I want the side returning nearly three to one if I am throwing action at it. In any event, this will be a very fun way to cap UFC Vegas 48.
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Fight Card
The other 11 fights simply do not bring anything resembling a household name. The 195 lb catchweight co-main event between Kyle Daukaus and Jamie Pickett is about as low level a co-main we will see. I would expect Daukaus to have his way in the grappling exchanges in this fight, but a -265 price tag on him is simply too steep to play.
Jim Miller fights on the card, but he is more of a novelty at this point of his overly lengthy career. Do no get me wrong, he is still a skilled fighter. Albeit not one that can be competitive at a higher level.
There are a pair of women’s fights on the card. I believe both of them are mislined, and we will have betting plays on those as well. Much more on those later.
In total, we will have five betting pick, and whew, do we have some juicy plus figures on this card. Without any further ado, let’s get to them.
UFC Vegas 48 Bet Sheet
Click the links below to read our bets and analyses.
Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
David Onama vs Gabriel Benitez
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Stephanie Egger
Diana Belbita vs Gloria de Paula
Chad Anheliger vs Jesse Strader
Other UFC Vegas 48 Fight Predictions
Johnny Walker via KO over Jamahal Hill
Kyle Daukaus via decision over Jamie Pickett
Parker Porter via KO over Alan Baudot
Nikolas Motta via KO over Jim Miller
Chas Skelly via submission over Mark Striegl
Jonathan Pearce via submission over Christian Rodriguez
Mario Bautista via decision over Jay Perrin