Chad Anheliger vs Jesse Strader Fight Odds
Chad Anheliger -265 vs Jesse Strader
Fight is at 135 lbs and is -180 to end inside the distance.
Jesse Strader makes his second walk to the octagon. His first fight with Montel Jackson did not go his way, and he was hurt and ultimately finished in the first round. That was clearly the most difficult opponent Strader faced in his career, and the matchup presented unique challenges. Strader was giving up three inches of height and five inches of reach to Jackson. Strader is likely accustomed to being at least level with, if not longer than his opponents at bantamweight. Despite that disadvantage, Strader was landing hard early on in that fight, before being tagged with some big punches. It was quite apparent each time Strader did not think he was available to be hit, but the length of Jackson was not something he was prepared for.
The matchup will not present those same challenges. Chad Anheliger is a crisp boxer, but is a far more compact fighter. Strader will have a height advantage of one inch and a reach advantage of six inches.
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Anheliger is a volume striker that relies on an accumulation of damage over real power. His task will be to repeatedly work his way inside and win exchanges while avoiding the very real power shots form Strader. While it is realistic, a -265 price tag on him feels a bit insane. I have to believe oddsmakers an bettors alike believe Strader has real durability issues to have the price where it currently sits. Even more perplexing is that the ITD lines are +110 on Anheliger and +400 on Strader.
How This Fight Plays Out
This fight will play out with Strader beginning on the outside, but not without activity. He will throw heavy low kicks somewhat relentlessly and mix kicks and punches to the body as well. The low kicks do land heavy and will begin to affect the movement of Anheliger before too long. The body shots are designed to bring the hands down, and that strategy has an extremely realistic chance of success. The leg kicks and body shots may well be enough to win rounds for Strader, but those are all designed to set up the kill shot. Strader has explosive power in his hands, and will be very live for a knockout throughout. That knock out could come either by him setting it up or just by having his power win the day in an inside punching exchange that Anheliger will abide.
What To Bet
This fight is mislined as a whole, and there is value on Strader on both the flat and ITD lines. While +400 ITD is attractive enough, we are already getting +220 on the flat line. While a knock out is at least as likely as a decision win for Strader, a decision is a real possibility as well. With that being the case, we will start our betting night with Strader flat at +220.
Betting Pick: Strader +220
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