Diana Belbita vs Gloria de Paula Fight Odds
Diana Belbita -125 vs Gloria de Paula
Fight is at 115 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.
de Paula
Gloria de Paula remains a very real prospect despite having her early UFC career bring only disappointment. De Paula was impressive on DWCS to earn her contract, but had hiccups in each of her first two fights in the promotion. Her first fight was against veteran Jinh Yu Frey who prioritized top control, and rightfully so. Frey was able to earn a takedown in the first round, and win the round with control time. De Paula was able to keep the fight standing in the second round and easily win with her striking. With the third round deciding the fight, de Paula was unable to stay upright and was simply controlled by the seasoned grappler and was on the wrong end of the decision.
In her next fight against Cheyanne Vlismas, de Paula made a mistake, and paid the full price for it. De Paula, who has a nasty Thai plum, was overzealous with that attack in attempt to land big knees. She was taken down but did not have the same problem of being stuck to the mat like she was against Frey. She quickly returned to her feet, but the made the mistake of being too overzealous to get back to the striking. Within a half second of raising her hand from the mat and no longer being grounded, she ate a side kick to the face that put her down. It was masterful timing from Vlismas but also something of an anomaly and bad luck for de Paula.
I have walked through this recent history because I believe it’s quite important to detail that we have only seen the worst of de Paula to this point.
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Belbita
Moving to Diana Belbita, she is a kickboxer that will likely be content to stand and strike with de Paula. Belbita is a solid striker that hits to all levels, and she certainly strikes in volume. She will certainly land her fair share of strikes in any stand up matchup. That said, she will eat as many strikes as she lands. Her vision is not the greatest when it comes to seeing strikes coming, and that will work against her terribly in this matchup. De Paula is going to land on her, and surviving the power at a real level of volume from de Paula will truly be a task.
De Paula, for the bas we have seen, gets a matchup where she can truly show off her skill set. She will get plenty of opportunity to land strikes in the clinch and at range, and that is simply where she is at her best. She is going to be able to land true power shots for the first time in her UFC tenure, and I believe she will be able to make the past losses a distant memory.
While de Paula is nothing resembling a truly high end grappler, it should very much be noted that Belbita has made costly grappling mistakes in the past. She has been submitted four times in her career and her UFC debut could have easily been a fifth. Molly McCann had a standing arm triangle that she did not recognize as an avenue to end the fight. While Belbita lost that fight, it could have and perhaps should have been another submission loss. If she is even remotely hurt, do not be shocked if she gives up her neck or arm. That holds true even against an unseasoned grappler like de Paula.
What To Bet
All in all, de Paula will not throw more volume, but she has a legitimate power edge. She is also the far more defensively responsible striker in a fight that will in all likelihood be decided in the stand up. I believe the power edge on the de Paula side will ultimately decide the fight and I think it is quite reasonable she wins via finish. With Belbita being a fighter that makes grappling mistakes as well, the +380 ITD line on de Paula is a juicy one to attack.
Betting Pick: de Paula ITD +380
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