Jessica Rose Clark vs Stephanie Egger Fight Odds
Jessica-Rose Clark -195 vs Stephanie Egger
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +130 to end inside the distance.
This is another fight that I see as terribly mislined on this card. Jessica-Rose Clark sits as a -195 favorite, which is far too wide, even if she is the rightful favorite. Clark’s level of experience is likely the factor that has the betting line set where it is. Clark is a rounded fighter, but does not have a differentiating quality to her game. Clark is a fighter that has relied on takedowns turned to top control time in her UFC tenure. She is 4-2 in the promotion and there is a glaring correlation between those takedowns and her results. She has takedowns in all four wins and has none in both losses. With her striking being just middle of the road and not a skill set that brings real power and just middling volume, grappling control has completely been her required path to victory.
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Egger Can Grapple
Stephanie Egger makes her third walk to the octagon. She is a very high end judoka whose overall skill set is clearly underrated entering this fight. Egger’s striking was a deficiency but she is truly leveling up fight to fight. She is clearly now landing with pop, even if her combinations sometimes end too soon and are not the most crisp.
Where she truly has her strongest skill set is in the clinch and using judo throws to get the fight to the mat where she lands in quite advantageous positions. She most often lands in side control on top on the mat, and seamlessly starts dropping vicious ground and pound. This is quite the contrast to her opponent, who is more worried about control and does little to no damage.
I believe we will see both fighters attempt to get the fight down, and I believe Egger will have the better results. Where Clark will shoot traditional takedowns, she is not on the level of say Tracy Cortez, who was previously able to land three takedowns on Egger. Egger will be able to use over hooks to turn Clark’s attempts to throws of her own, even if not at a perfect success rate.
Scrambles may be important in this fight, but they will be more important for Clark than they will be for Egger. While I think she lands on top more often, she will only need to once or twice to take rounds. She will simply do much more with top position. Egger has also shown herself to be quite sound off her back, already hitting an omoplata in the UFC to turn the tide and being able to return to her feet.
What To Bet
Again, I simply feel the grappling skill set of Egger is not getting enough credit, leading to the fight being mislined. She will be the fighter bringing the damage on the mat and can easily win the fight without winning the control time battle. If she does win the control time battle, it will be a dominant win for her, and a ground and pound finish is truly in play. Take the +160 on Egger.
Betting Pick: Egger +160
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