UFC 272
UFC 272 is a quality pay per view card, despite the rare instance of a pay per view main event not being a title fight. The card starts at 6PM EST on Saturday, March 5th, 2022. The card takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and we will have fans in the building. UFC 272 is scheduled for 13 fights.
The fight card itself brings quality from top to bottom, and is one to be excited for. As mentioned, the main event is not a title fight, but it is a fight that is as intriguing as one can be. In a welterweight matchup, former roommates and best friends Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal will look to settle a blood feud. More on that fight in a bit.
FanDuel Promo
FanDuel is offering an awesome promotion for UFC 272. You can get a 30 to 1 return for simply picking the fighter to win the main event. All you have to do is create an account on the FanDuel sportsbook. You will then be able to bet $5 to win $150 on either Covington or Masvidal. Considering Covington is a -340 favorite, you get impeccable value on him.
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Co-Main Event
This card lost its co-main event this week. Rafael Fiziev and Rafael Dos Anjos were scheduled for the co-main event, but Fiziev had to pull out once arriving in the US. He contracted a symptomatic case of COVID, leaving the promotion scrambling for a replacement fighter. There were no shortage of volunteers, or so it seemed. The most exciting of which was Islam Makhachev publicly volunteering, only to back out when it came time to sign. Dana White was noticeably peeved by this, essentially giving Makhachev no chance to fight for the title in his next fight.
The fighter that did step up and ended up signing for the fight was Renato Moicano. Moicano is trying to bring his name back to true relevance after learning featherweight was not the right division for him. After starting his UFC tenure with wins in five of six fights and the only loss being to Brian Ortega, Moicano was not far off from being in the title shot conversation. He then learned he did not have the durability needed, being knocked out by Jose Aldo and the Korean Zombie in consecutive fights. That prompted his move to lightweight.
Since that move, Moicano is 3-1 at lightweight. He has submission wins in all three matchups against lesser competition and another knock out loss to Rafael Fiziev. The matchup with Dos Anjos is the type of fight Moicano needs to get over the hump, but also the type of fight he has fallen short in throughout his UFC career.
How It Plays Out
While Dos Anjos is far from a knock out artist, Moicano has developed a poor track record of durability. We do not often say this in Dos Anjos fights, but he is going to have a notable striking advantage. His southpaw stance will take away takedown opportunities from Moicano. It may well make this a more striking heavy fight than either is accustomed to, as both are high end grapplers.
Dos Anjos straight left and kicking game are going to be problems for Moicano. The straight left will test the durability issues and will be a deterrent of Moicano pressing forward. Moicano does not bring the pop in the striking that earns respect, so he may have difficulty advancing, and that will be a massive issue for him. For Moicano to find success in this fight, he will need to push RDA to the cage and earn his takedowns from there.
Both fighters are limited wrestlers that get their takedowns against the fence. I see the difference being that it will be a requirement for Moicano to win rounds while it will simply be an option for RDA. I think the striking of RDA controls a much larger portion of this fight than most expect.
Moicano is a great grappler, but is more reliant on a submission game than RDA. RDA is more positionally aware and is not a fighter that will be submitted. I think there is the slightest of edges to RDA on the floor, as he will do better to control in his periods on top than Moicano will.
Co-Main Lean
I do believe RDA wins this fight, and if you are firing at it, he is the side to play at -170. He will have a cardio advantage later in the fight as well. The things that keep me form making RDA a dedicated betting pick are his advanced age and track record of late. Losses to the likes of Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington and Leon Edwards are hardly things to be ashamed of. While I do believe RDA wins this fight comfortably, being out of the octagon for nearly a year and a half at 37 years old leaves room for the unknown, keeping him as a lean and not a betting pick.
On to the UFC 272 main event.
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UFC 272 Main Event
The story of Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal is a fascinating one. The former best friends and teammates have gone from a close friendship and partnership to absolute hated rivals. Make no mistake, this UFC 272 Main Event is as personal as a fight can get.
It sets up particularly well because these two fighters are clearly at the top of the list in terms of level of matchup for champ Kamaru Usman. It is not coincidence that four of Usman’s last five fights have been against Covington and Masvidal.
This fight will play out much as expected, and there is not a world of different ways it can go. Covington is rightfully set as a favorite in the neighborhood of -340. As with any opponent Covington faces not named Usman, he will advantages in essentially every area, save for power. Masvidal is very much in a knock out or best spot. We saw that type of fight set up in his fight with Ben Askren, and Masvidal did not disappoint. The flying knee at the onset resulting in a five second KO is one of the best highlights ever. He is capable, but it will not be nearly as available to him in this matchup.
The pace, pressure, striking volume and wrestling from Covington is a constant grind on all of his opponents. While he does not bring natural power, he does not need it with his style. He constantly stays in the face of his opponents, touching them, working for takedowns and constantly making them work. Covington weaponizes his cardio to great effect. He grinds out a takedown, lands what he can, makes his opponent work their way back up, rinses and repeats.
How It Plays Out
Masvidal is certainly not a novice with takedown defense and is not a pushover one taken down. That said, it is going to be overly difficult for him to get this fight to take place in space, as he will need to win. Ultimately, he will need to land that KO shot in limited opportunities as Covington puts his normal grind to work.
If betting this main event, the Covington side is the better side to play. If the fight goes to a decision, it will certainly be Covington with his hand raised. That is not to rule out an attrition based late finish, but his most likely path to victory is via decision. If going the other way, a bet on Masvidal should come via KO in the +400 range. The knock is truly his path to victory. While not impossible, this is likely a fight where Covington grinds out another win against the highly charismatic Masvidal.
Remainder Of Fight Card And How To Attack UFC 272
This is simply such a fun card from top to bottom. Even the early prelims bring high end fighters and fights. The card kicks off with a very fun striking matchup between Michel Olekseijczuk and Dustin Jacoby. Trust me, this should not be an early prelim fight. We then also get Devonte Smith and Umar Nurmagomedov in action. While Smith has been disappointing of late, his physical gifts overflow and he is still a highly dangerous finisher, particularly early on in fights. Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite over Brian Kelleher, who is not remotely a pushover in any regard. This speaks to the level of skill set Nurmagomedov currently possesses.
On the televised prelims, we kick it off with another grudge match between former teammates. The vitriol between Mriya Agapova and Maryna Moroz is quite real. These two fighters truly despise one another. More on that fight later. We also get very high quality matchups in Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey and Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan.
The pay per view portion will certainly bring entertainment as well. It kicks off with a heavyweight bout between two finishers in Greg Hardy and Serghei Spivac. That leads into the always entertaining Kevin Holland’s move to welterweight in a matchup with Cowboy Oliveira. We then get a matchup where someone is being finished between Bryce Mitchell and Edson Barboza before leading into the co-main and main events.
Bets
From a betting perspective, we will have five total bets on this card. This is not a card offering opportunity on large plus figures, but it is still a card offering plenty of betting opportunity. Let’s get to those betting picks.
UFC 272 Bet Sheet
Click the links below to read the betting plays and analyses.
Bryce Mitchell vs Edson Barboza
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira
Seghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy
Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey
Mariya Agapova vs Maryna Moroz
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Other UFC 272 Fight Predictions
Colby Covington via decision over Jorge Masvidal
Rafael Dos Anjos via KO over Renato Moicano
Marina Rodriguez via decision over Yan Xiaonan
Kennedy Nzechukwu via KO over Nicolae Negumereanu
Umar Nurmagomedov via decision over Brian Kelleher
Tamir Ulanbekov via decision over Tim Elliott
Devonte Smith via KO over Ludovit Klein
Michel Olekseijczuk via KO over Dustin Jacoby