Mariya Agapova vs Maryna Moroz Fight Odds
Mariya Agapova -200 vs Maryna Moroz
Fight is at 125 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance.
This fight, like the main event, is to put a cap on an absolute feud between two fighters that loathe each other. The former teammates have hurled real insults at each other and there will be a little something extra on the line in the octagon. In grudge matches that will be predominantly striking, power is a huge factor.
Mariya Agapova remains famous for being on the wrong side of the single biggest upset in UFC history. At least by betting line. Agapova lost as a -1400 favorite against Shana Dobson two fights ago. While that was a wild loss, I believe there is some residual value we can take from it. Namely, after a convincing win via finish against Sabina Mazo, Agapova is only set as a -200 favorite against Maryna Moroz.
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Agapova is a dangerous striker and a well rounded fighter. She has a truly high ceiling, as she has not yet come close to reaching her peak at 24 years old. We know she has struggled with anxiety which she has addressed. She has also been accused of drug use by Moroz, which even if true, is not really a true indictment on a person in their lower 20s. That is all to say, Agapova was impressive while dealing with many issues in her life. She will only get better from here. We are going to see more improvements in this fight and it is going to be a tough night for Moroz. Moroz appears to be far too focused on who Agapova was rather than who she is. I see that as a massive mistake.
How This Fight Plays Out
Moroz does not bring a low end skill set, but she is not going to get the type of fight she wants against Agapova. Moroz likes to stay level but will be facing pressure and aggression that she is not prepared for. Agapova will absolutely come in swinging heavy, but will be more measured after learning from her mistakes. While the volume will be fairly even between these two fighters, it will be Agapova pouring on the damage. Damage will be the name of the game for Agapova on her way to another finish win.
As mentioned, this fight is quite personal. There will be extra incentive to secure a finish, and Agapova is absolutely the fighter built to do just that. She will land the heavier shots in the stand up and if the fight hits the floor she is the more dangerous grappler with the better ground and pound. In totality, I think we get a finish as Agapova takes another step forward in her development. That finish brings us a +180 return and it will be our lone plus figure return on the card.
Betting Pick: Agapova ITD +180
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