New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
• Run Line: Yankees 1.5 -185, Orioles -1.5 160
• Money Line: Yankees 115, Orioles -135
• Total (Over/Under): 9

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 45%
• Baltimore Orioles - 55%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 45.31%
• Baltimore Orioles - 54.69%

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the New York Yankees in an American League East matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 17-10, are having a great season, while the Yankees are also performing well with a record of 19-10. This will be the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Orioles are projected to start Grayson Rodriguez, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the #31 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rodriguez has started five games this year, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.45. Interestingly, his 3.34 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Yankees are projected to start Clarke Schmidt, another right-handed pitcher. Schmidt has started five games this year, registering a 2-0 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.55. While his ERA is good, his 4.53 xERA indicates that he has been lucky and might not perform as well in future games.

In terms of team rankings, the Orioles have the #4 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent regardless of actual year-to-date performance. Their offense ranks #14 in team batting average, #17 in team home runs, and #17 in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Yankees have the #12 best offense in MLB, excelling in team home runs with an #8 ranking, but struggling with team batting average at #29 and team stolen bases at #20.

Looking at the betting odds, the Orioles are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Yankees, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%.

With the Orioles' strong offense and the projected performance of Grayson Rodriguez, they have a high implied team total of 4.78 runs. The Yankees, while having an average offense, have an implied team total of 4.22 runs.

This game promises to be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams. Will the Orioles' offense continue to shine or will the Yankees find a way to outperform expectations? Only time will tell as these two teams take the field in what should be an exhilarating game of baseball.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 9th-weakest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Anthony Rizzo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez has recorded 17 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 129 games (+23.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 away games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has only hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 14 away games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction: Yankees 4.74 - Orioles 4.94

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