Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
• Run Line: Reds -1.5 160, Padres 1.5 -185
• Money Line: Reds -110, Padres -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 50%
• San Diego Padres - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 46.08%
• San Diego Padres - 53.92%

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

In a matchup scheduled for April 29, 2024, the San Diego Padres are set to take on the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park. As the home team, the Padres will have the advantage of playing in their own ballpark. This National League matchup marks the first game in a series between these two teams.

The Padres, with a season record of 14-17, are currently below average. Their offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, indicating underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 20th in the league. Despite this, they have shown power with a ranking of 10th in team home runs and have displayed speed with a ranking of 7th in stolen bases.

The Reds, on the other hand, are having an above-average season with a 15-13 record. Their offense ranks 20th in MLB, indicating room for improvement. They have an average ranking in team batting average and team home runs. However, their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank 1st in the league.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who has started 5 games this year. Waldron holds a win/loss record of 1-2 with an ERA of 3.96, which is considered good. However, his 4.53 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Waldron is ranked as the 266th best starting pitcher in MLB.

Opposing him will be left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has started 3 games this year. Lodolo boasts a perfect 2-0 record with an excellent ERA of 2.12. However, his 3.31 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in performance. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lodolo is ranked as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB.

In terms of the bullpen, the Padres have the advantage with a ranking of 8th best in MLB, while the Reds trail behind at 22nd. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Reds have the same average implied team total. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Overall, this game appears to be evenly matched, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. The Padres will look to rely on their power and speed, while the Reds will rely on their strong stolen base performance. The starting pitching matchup favors the Reds, but the Padres have the advantage in bullpen rankings. With the game being played at Petco Park, the Padres might have a slight edge as the home team. It will be an intriguing matchup to watch as the two teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With a 1.22 discrepancy between Nick Lodolo's 11.75 K/9 and his 10.53 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and should see negative regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Fernando Tatis Jr. as the 11th-best batter in the game when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 130 games (+11.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+16.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has only hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 16 games at home (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Reds vs Padres Prediction: Reds 4.34 - Padres 4.44

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