Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 110, D-Backs 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Dodgers -140, D-Backs 120
• Total (Over/Under): 10

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 56%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 56.58%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 43.42%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team for this National League West matchup. Despite having a bad season with a record of 13-16, the Diamondbacks will look to challenge the Dodgers, who are having a great season with a record of 18-12.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Tommy Henry, a left-handed pitcher. He has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.55, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP of 3.75 suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Dodgers will counter with James Paxton, also a left-handed pitcher. Paxton has started four games this year, with a perfect record of 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.61. However, his xFIP of 6.14 indicates that he may have been lucky and could perform worse in the future.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks as the 5th best in MLB, while the Dodgers have the 2nd best offense. Both teams have solid batting averages, but the Diamondbacks excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a strong home run game, ranking 2nd in the league.

In terms of pitching, the Diamondbacks bullpen is ranked 25th in MLB, while the Dodgers have the 5th best bullpen. This could give the Dodgers an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks are underdogs with a moneyline of +120, giving them an implied win probability of 44%. The Dodgers, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -140, with an implied win probability of 56%.

The projected team totals for the game are high, with the Diamondbacks at 4.66 runs and the Dodgers at 5.34 runs. This suggests that both teams are expected to have a productive offensive performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. James Paxton has relied on his secondary pitches 10% less often this year (32.7%) than he did last year (42.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Teoscar Hernandez has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tommy Henry struggles to strike batters out (15th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all starting pitchers, Tommy Henry's fastball velocity of 89.7 mph ranks in the 6th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ketel Marte ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 145 games (+13.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 138 games (+21.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.30 Units / 65% ROI)

Dodgers vs D-Backs Prediction: Dodgers 6.02 - D-Backs 4.98

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.