Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 120, Mariners 1.5 -140
• Money Line: Braves -150, Mariners 130
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 58%
• Seattle Mariners - 42%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 59.45%
• Seattle Mariners - 40.55%

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

The Seattle Mariners are set to face off against the Atlanta Braves in an Interleague matchup on April 29, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a season record of 15-13, are having an above-average season, while the Braves boast an impressive 19-7 record, indicating a great season so far.

On the mound, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller, who has a 3-2 win/loss record and an excellent 2.22 ERA this year. However, his 3.86 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. On the other side, the Braves are projected to start left-handed pitcher Max Fried, who has a perfect 2-0 record but a below-average 4.97 ERA. His 3.49 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future performances.

The Mariners' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and an average ranking in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Braves boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average, home runs, and 7th in stolen bases. This offensive strength gives the Braves a significant advantage in this matchup.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Max Fried is considered the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB, while Bryce Miller ranks 144th out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him below average. Fried's elite performance adds to the Braves' advantage in this game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 58%, while the Mariners are the underdogs with a 42% win probability. The Mariners have a low implied team total of 3.42 runs, while the Braves have an average implied team total of 4.08 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that groundball hitters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Max Fried and his 51.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this matchup squaring off against 0 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's change-up rate has increased by 14.9% from last year to this one (5.6% to 20.5%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 108 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 54% ROI)

Braves vs Mariners Prediction: Braves 4.28 - Mariners 3.29

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