Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -160, Marlins -1.5 140
• Money Line: Nationals 125, Marlins -145
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 43%
• Miami Marlins - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 40.39%
• Miami Marlins - 59.61%

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

The Miami Marlins are set to host the Washington Nationals in a National League East matchup on April 29, 2024. The game will take place at LoanDepot Park, with the Marlins acting as the home team. Both teams are currently having below-average seasons, with the Marlins holding a dismal 6-23 record and the Nationals sitting at 13-14.

In terms of pitching, the Marlins are projected to start left-hander Trevor Rogers, who has had a rough start to the season with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 4.10. However, his 3.59 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Nationals are projected to start right-hander Jake Irvin, who has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.55. Like Rogers, Irvin's 3.63 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Marlins offense ranks near the bottom of the league in several categories, including overall offensive ranking (#29), home runs (#28), and stolen bases (#25). However, they excel in team batting average, where they rank third in MLB. The Nationals offense, meanwhile, fares slightly better with an overall offensive ranking of #23 and a solid team batting average ranking of #6. However, they struggle in terms of home runs (#29) and stolen bases (#14).

Both teams also have struggling bullpens, with the Marlins ranked #26 and the Nationals ranked dead last at #30 in MLB. This could lead to potential scoring opportunities late in the game.

Considering the projected pitching matchup and the offensive rankings, the Marlins have a higher implied win probability of 58% compared to the Nationals' 42%. However, it's important to note that these are just projections, and anything can happen in baseball.

In terms of recent performance, the Marlins have Vidal Brujan as their standout player over the past week. He has recorded a batting average of .545 and a 1.455 OPS. The Nationals have been led by Nick Senzel, who has hit 4 home runs and recorded 8 RBIs over the same period.

Overall, this game presents an opportunity for the Nationals to capitalize on Trevor Rogers' struggles and potentially exploit their power-oriented offense against his high groundball rate. On the other hand, the Marlins could take advantage of Jake Irvin's control-focused approach against their patient hitters. With the Marlins being the betting favorites at -150, they have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.65 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 15th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Trevor Rogers has a mean projection of 16.6 outs in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The switch-hitting Vidal Brujan will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Jake Irvin.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In today's game, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.2% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games at home (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 97 games (+17.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Trevor Rogers has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction: Nationals 4.08 - Marlins 4.73

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