It is two weeks in August, meaning that there are just seven weeks left in the Major League Baseball season. While there have been great pennant races across both leagues, the National League has clearly been more exciting. The Los Angeles Dodgers are locked to win the NL West, holding a 16.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres at the time this article was written. However, the NL Central is wide open and the NL East has two teams battling for the division. Plus, only one team looks like they are a lock for a wildcard spot.
There is great action coming down the stretch, including the race to see who will be the National League MVP. There are a number of great candidates out there, but understanding exactly what baseball writers are looking for in an MVP can be a challenge. Clearly, numbers play a part, as a player who leads in homeruns, has a great batting average, has driven in a lot of runs, and helps to produce runs has an advantage. However, this is not the only thing that many voters will be looking for.
Voters often downgrade the performance of players if the team is not doing well. They expect an MVP to lead his team into the playoffs, likely even to a division crown. Those who don’t make the playoffs find themselves with the stigma attached.
When there are two potential MVPs on a team that can hurt the chances of both players. For example, Los Angeles has both Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts who are having great seasons. They are both going to earn MVP votes, but neither is going to be seen as being the bigger reason why their team wins the division.
These kinds of things will have an impact, but here are five that are likely to come away with the National League MVP.
NL MVP Odds
| Player |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soto | +600 | +550 | +450 | +550 | +550 |
| Betts | +800 | +900 | +800 | +850 | +950 |
| Tatis Jr. | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | ||
| Acuna Jr. | +1000 | +850 | +1000 | ||
| Tatis Jr | +1200 | +1000 | +1400 | ||
| Machado | +1200 | +1200 | +950 | +1500 | +1200 |
| Goldschmidt | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 | +1400 | +1500 |
| Riley | +1400 | +1600 | +1400 | +1500 | +1600 |
| Freeman | +1400 | +1300 | +1000 | +1300 | +1400 |
| Alonso | +1400 | +1400 | +1000 | +1500 | +1600 |
| Acuna Jr | +1400 | +1000 | +900 | ||
| Turner | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Arenado | +1800 | +1200 | +1000 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Olson | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | +2400 |
| Schwarber | +2800 | +4000 | +3000 | +2500 | +3500 |
| Lindor | +3000 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Bogaerts | +3500 | +3000 | +3300 | +3500 | +4000 |
| Harris | +4000 | +4000 | |||
| Harris II | +4500 | +5000 | +4500 | +4500 | |
| Harper | +5000 | +6600 | +5000 | +3500 | +8000 |
NL MVP Picks & Prediction
Paul Goldschmidt (-140), St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt has helped his team jump into the top spot in the NL Central at the time that this article was written. The numbers for Goldschmidt are impressive, as he is hitting .328 with 28 homers, 80 runs scored, and 89 RBI. He ranks in the top five in practically all major statistical categories, plus his team is winning games and he is an interval part of it.
Adding to his resume is the fact that he has been completely consistent. In the 17 games following the All-Star break he hit .328, 8 homeruns, 15 runs scored, and 19 RBI. His only negative will be that third baseman Nolan Arenado is also an MVP candidate and may steal some of the votes.
Austin Riley (+500), Atlanta Braves
If voters split the baby and give votes to both Arenada and Goldschmidt, Austin Riley could be the guy who gets in there. Riley is the big bat for the Atlanta Braves and can stake his claim to the award by pointing out that he does not have the same cast of weapons that some other candidates do have. Atlanta is very deep, but Riley is clearly the star of this team. The third baseman is hitting .292 with 30 homers, 67 runs scored, and 74 RBI. The .357 on-base percentage is not great, but the .935 OPS is still quite impressive.
Pete Alonso (+1600), New York Mets
Alonso has even less support around him than Riley does, but is still putting up extremely impressive numbers. Two weeks in August he has 29 homers, 97 RBI, and 66 runs scored. The on-base percentage is impressive (.360), but there are a couple of things going against it. First off, his batting average is not that impressive (.281).
That hurts his OPS (.898), putting him sixth overall. He will still garner a lot of votes, because New York is going to be battling Atlanta for the division title for the remainder of the season, and still could finish with the top record in the National League. Let him get on a hot streak over the final 25 games and he will be your MVP.
Manny Machado (+2500), San Diego Padres
This is an interesting choice, as the numbers for Machado are solid but not eye-popping. At the time of this article, he was hitting .299 was 75 runs scored, 21 home runs, and 70 RBI. None of those numbers are particularly impressive. What is impressive is the fact that he was not expected to be the star of this team.
Fernando Tatis was the superstar with the big contract, but he spent the first four months of the season on the disabled list and is now out for the rest of the year after a positive PED test. That makes the performance of Machado that much more impressive. However, he is going to need this team to make the playoffs to get serious consideration.
Freddie Freeman (+800), Los Angeles Dodgers
The numbers for Freeman are very much like those for Machado. They are great, but not usually MVP-type numbers. He is hitting .320 with 79 runs and 72 RBI through the 113 games. All three of those are impressive numbers, but his 15 homers are going to stand in his way. Plus, he has Betts on the club, and he is going to garner some MVP support.
Freeman is a serious longshot even though oddsmakers seem to give him pretty fair odds to win. He has the advantage of playing in Los Angeles, a huge media metropolis, and his team is likely to finish with the top record in the National League. That will help, but unless he hits .390 with 10 homers over the final 30 games, he is not going to win.
Who to Go With?
This is really a battle between two candidates right now. Riley and Goldschmidt are clearly the front runners. A couple of things are going to be the determining factors. If St. Louis wins the NL Central, Goldschmidt is likely the guy. However, if Atlanta battles back to win the NL East or St. Louis drops into a wildcard spot, then look for Riley to be the pick. Arenado is going to garner some MVP votes as well, but Riley doesn’t have any competition on his own team. That will likely be the difference.
