The 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge became a seminal moment for the PGA Tour. With the COVID-19 pandemic raging, the PGA Tour adopted strict testing and distancing protocols and managed to come back as safely as possible to give sports fans and bettors something to watch. With really only NASCAR to follow, bettors flocked to golf.
Ever since that June tournament, golf betting has been more popular than ever and demand for the sport continues to be high. This year’s version of the Charles Schwab Challenge doesn’t carry the same weight, but still projects to be a great tournament at Colonial Country Club.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Odds
Jordan Spieth is favored in his home state at +1050 for this weekend’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Justin Thomas is +1300, followed by Collin Morikawa at +1500, and then a trio of players at +1700 with Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau, and Patrick Reed. Reigning champion Daniel Berger and Corey Conners are +1900.
The prices for the tournament are depressed a little bit this week because we don’t have the huge names like Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele that usually occupy some of these spots, but there is a lot to like about this group of players and the course fit.
We just saw that no matter how tough the course is playing, a world-class player with a pedigree can come from a huge number and win. However, when you look at this setup this week, it does seem unlikely that anybody past a Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, or Jason Kokrak at 35/1 can win. Rose, for what it’s worth, is a past winner here back in 2018.
That’s not to say that it can’t happen and there are some players we’ll talk about later in matchups that you may want to take an outright with, but this is a relatively top-heavy and deep at the top field.
Colonial Country Club Preview
Colonial Country Club is a par 70 right around 7,200 yards that does not really reward distance off the tee. A wide range of players have won here, but the majority of them have not been enormous hitters off the tee. Jordan Spieth is a winner here, along with Kevin Kisner and Kevin Na. Zach Johnson has won here twice. So has Phil Mickelson.
These are bentgrass greens and pretty narrow fairways. Because this course is tucked into a pretty urban area, a lot of the holes bend and wind with plenty of doglegs. This course is less about hitting the ball a mile and more about setting up for a second shot.
The greens aren’t thought to be overly tough, but it does seem like more than a coincidence that past winners here include guys like Spieth, Na, Rose, and Kisner that are all very capable with the putter. Spieth rode the best SG: Putting last year to a top-10 finish after the COVID layoff.
Who Has Had Success Here?
The headliner as far as course form might as well be Spieth. The favorite is a past winner here that has six top-10 finishes in eight starts at Colonial. He has another top-15 finish in the mix, too. Another short price, Justin Rose, has a win and was also third here last year.
Ryan Palmer had a nice run with four top-six finishes from 2012-19, but he’s missed a couple of cuts the last three years. That’s also true of Matt Kuchar, who was runner-up in 2013 and has three top-10 finishes. He missed the cut off the layoff last year.
Brian Harman may have opened some eyes at +3000 in a field like this, but he’s got a couple top-10 finishes and five in the top-25 since 2015.
Kisner’s win came at the end of a string of three top-10 finishes. Na also has four career top-10 finishes and had three in four starts, culminating with that win in 2019.
Who Has Had Recent Success?
Well, Phil Mickelson just won the PGA Championship, which seems pretty successful. He’s also a two-time winner at Colonial, a course that puts heavy emphasis on iron and wedge play.
Abraham Ancer has been dialed in with three straight top-10 finishes and another top-20 at the RBC Heritage. He was also 26th at Augusta National. Conners has four top-25 finishes in his last five events and was a top-10 finisher at The Masters. Billy Horschel and Charley Hoffman have racked up recent top-25 outcomes. Their prices are a little bigger this week at +3500 and +4500, at least relative to the other short numbers.
The usual suspects have also played well. Collin Morikawa has three top-20 finishes in a row and two top 10s. Masters runner-up Will Zalatoris had a top-10 last week. It’s hard to look past the top of the board.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks
As far as outrights go, these will not be sexy picks, but Abraham Ancer at +1700 and Corey Conners at +1900 look like great bets this week. They both fit the course really well. Ancer is +400 for a top-five finish and Conners is +500 if you’d rather go that route. Ancer had a bogey-free 7-under final round on Sunday, so he really found something that worked well.
As matchups get posted, other players to keep in mind are Emiliano Grillo and Chris Kirk. Grillo and Kirk rank fifth and first in Par 4 Scoring Efficiency from 400-450 yards. Those will be hugely important birdie holes this week. Grillo is +4500 and Kirk is +5500.
The Charles Schwab Challenge will be on Golf Channel and CBS this week.
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For more thoughts on the Charles Schwab Challenge, check out Brian Blessing on our ATS YouTube page: