Odds Don’t Favor Nick Saban Going Away Anytime Soon

Odds Don’t Favor Nick Saban Going Away Anytime Soon

There is something to be said for the level of excellence that Nick Saban has been able to cultivate at Alabama. The fact that he is able to rebuild his team every year no matter how many guys he loses to the NFL Draft is nothing short of amazing.

You would think there would be a down year in their somewhere, but he just hasn’t had one.

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Fans of other teams hope to hear that Saban is going to retire every year. Maybe without him at the helm, the mighty Crimson Tide would stop being so mighty. It might take a few years, but eventually, the Saban mystique would fade away.

Okay—so when will that day finally come? MyBookie.ag has a couple of different ways you can bet on it:

  • When will Nick Saban retire?

o    Over 5.5 years +100

o    Under 5.5 years -130

That translates to a 56.52 chance he retires in less than 5.5 years and a 50 percent chance he has at least six more years left in him. So, basically—the oddsmakers don’t have a clue. It could go either way. But they have offered another wager for those looking to get more specific on when Saban steps down:

  • When will Alabama head coach Nick Saban retire:

o    After the 2019 season     +700

o    After the 2020 or 2021 season     +350

o    After the 2022 or 2023 season     +300

o    After 2024     +300

o    After 2025     +175

o    2026 or beyond     +650

At his age, 67 (will turn 68 during the 2019 season), you would think that the end is near. The trend in recent years has been to go younger. But with the program being as successful as it has been under Saban, there is no reason to think the University may want to go that route anytime soon.

Under Saban, Alabama has finished the season in the top ten every year, usually in the top-five. They have made it to the College Football Playoffs every year since it was created and made it to the National Championship game in each of the last four (winning twice). With the team they have coming back this year, there is an excellent chance that they will be back on top yet again at the end of the season.

When you look at the caliber of recruits Saban has brought in in recent years, there is no reason to think they will not be back on top in 2020 after the NFL Draft decimates the roster once again.

So, when he does go, it will be of his own volition. There is no way the University decides to get rid of Saban before he chooses to leave (barring some kind of salacious scandal). For his part, Saban has shown no willingness or desire to slow down anytime soon (via 247sports):

“I would not want to do it if I did not feel like I was able to do a good job. If my health got bad or I felt like I was not able to keep up the pace. I don’t want to ride the program down. We’ve worked hard to make Alabama something special, and as long as I’m capable of contributing to keep it that way, I’m happy doing this.”

Last season’s title game performance against Clemson was the first time under Saban that the Crimson Tide looked overmatched. Both teams are expected to make it back to the title game again this year. If they do, and Alabama is easily beaten yet again, there may be a case for Saban retiring sooner rather than later.

But if it is a good game or if Alabama wins, there is no reason to think he is going to retire anytime soon. His health is excellent, and even though he is not a young man, there is no reason to believe he is going away anytime soon.

If you are going to wager on this, you might as well go for the payoff. Put something (not much) on after this season at +700 and then on ‘2026 and beyond’ at +650.

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