2021 Conference USA Football Championship Odds & Betting Preview
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
The 2021 Conference USA football season presented an unusually difficult futures market. After a disrupted 2020 campaign, several teams entered the new season with limited game experience, significant coaching changes, and plenty of unanswered questions.
Marshall opened as the championship favorite at +250, with defending champion UAB close behind at +275. UTSA was attracting considerable preseason attention at +300, while Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky offered longer odds.
The original ATS.io analysis identified UTSA as a rising contender and Western Kentucky as an intriguing East Division long shot.
That assessment proved well-founded. UTSA went on to win the 2021 Conference USA Championship, defeating Western Kentucky 49-41 on December 3, 2021.
This historical betting preview revisits the original championship odds, preseason handicapping arguments, division races, and the results that determined which futures bets paid out.
The following table preserves the sportsbook prices published in the original ATS.io preview on July 7, 2021.
Team | Opening odds | Consensus | FanDuel | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Marshall | +250 | +278 | +300 | +275 |
UAB | +275 | +283 | +300 | +275 |
UTSA | +300 | +325 | +300 | +325 |
Florida Atlantic | +700 | +833 | +1000 | +800 |
Western Kentucky | +1000 | +966 | +1000 | +900 |
Rice | +1500 | +1500 | +1400 | +1600 |
Southern Miss | +1800 | +2166 | +2500 | +2000 |
Louisiana Tech | +2800 | +2766 | +2500 | +2800 |
North Texas | +2800 | +2833 | +2500 | +3000 |
Old Dominion | +2800 | +2833 | +2500 | +3000 |
Charlotte | +3300 | +2933 | +2500 | +3300 |
Middle Tennessee | +3300 | +2933 | +2500 | +3300 |
FIU | +3300 | +4333 | +5000 | +4000 |
UTEP | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Source: Original ATS.io July 2021 championship futures table. DraftKings prices were not populated in the archived table, so that column has been omitted. All odds are historical and no longer available.
The opening market placed Marshall, UAB, and UTSA in a clear leading group.
Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky formed the next tier, while the remaining teams faced substantially longer odds.
The differences between sportsbooks also mattered. UTSA, for example, was available at +325 through PointsBet and the consensus market, compared with +300 at FanDuel.
For current conference futures and game selections, see our college football picks and betting analysis.
The 2020 college football season had been disrupted by COVID-19, and Conference USA teams experienced dramatically different schedules.
FIU and Rice played just five games each. UTSA and Western Kentucky played 12. Marshall, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, and Southern Miss played 10, while Old Dominion didn't play at all.
That made traditional preseason comparisons more difficult.
A team returning most of its starters from a 12-game season had a very different preparation history than one whose players had barely competed the previous year.
There were also major coaching changes.
Marshall replaced longtime head coach Doc Holliday with Charles Huff, who arrived from Alabama. Southern Miss hired Will Hall, while several other programs introduced new coordinators.
Those changes increased the uncertainty surrounding team performance.
How reliable were the previous season's statistics? Teams had played very different numbers of games, making straightforward comparisons less useful.
Which programs would benefit from continuity? Returning starters and experienced coaching staffs appeared especially valuable after the disrupted 2020 season.
Could an outsider challenge the established contenders? UAB and Marshall had strong recent records, but UTSA and Western Kentucky had reasons to believe they could compete for the championship.
The third question became the defining story of the season.
Marshall entered the 2021 season as the narrow championship favorite.
The Thundering Herd had established themselves among Conference USA's most consistent programs under Doc Holliday.
However, Holliday's departure created an important uncertainty.
Charles Huff arrived after working on Nick Saban's Alabama staff, bringing experience from one of college football's most successful programs.
The question was how quickly that experience would translate into results as a first-time college head coach.
Marshall had a strong recent track record, an established recruiting base, and enough talent to remain competitive in the East Division.
The Thundering Herd also benefited from playing in a division where several opponents faced their own uncertainties.
A successful transition under Huff could have kept Marshall near the top of the conference.
At +250, Marshall's opening odds implied a 28.6% chance of winning the championship before accounting for the bookmaker's margin.
That was a relatively short price for a team undergoing a significant coaching transition.
The original ATS.io preview questioned whether Marshall would remain as consistent without Holliday.
The concern proved relevant.
Marshall finished 5-3 in conference play, behind Western Kentucky in the East Division.
The Thundering Herd finished 7-6 overall after losing their bowl game.
They did not reach the Conference USA Championship Game.
Marshall's preseason favorite status therefore failed to translate into a title appearance.
UAB entered 2021 as one of Conference USA's most reliable programs.
Under Bill Clark, the Blazers had become regular championship contenders.
They had reached three consecutive Conference USA title games and won two of the previous three championships.
That record made UAB an understandable favorite.
Coaching continuity was a major advantage.
Clark had established a physical, disciplined approach built around defense and a productive running game.
The Blazers had also demonstrated an ability to win important conference games.
Unlike Marshall, UAB didn't face a major head-coaching transition.
In a season full of uncertainty, that stability mattered.
UAB's biggest obstacle was the presence of UTSA in the West Division.
Only one team from each division could advance to the championship game.
That meant UAB could produce a strong season and still miss the title game if UTSA finished ahead in the division standings.
The original article identified this as a major reason to compare the two teams carefully.
UAB finished 6-2 in Conference USA play and 9-4 overall.
The Blazers remained one of the conference's strongest teams but finished behind UTSA in the West.
They missed the championship game despite another successful season.
A UAB championship futures bet at +275 therefore lost.
UTSA entered 2021 with growing expectations.
The Roadrunners had played 12 games in 2020, giving their returning players valuable experience.
The original ATS.io preview noted that UTSA returned 21 starters and appeared to be recruiting at one of the strongest levels in Conference USA.
Head coach Jeff Traylor was building momentum entering his second season.
The combination of continuity, experience, and improving talent made UTSA an attractive championship candidate.
The Roadrunners had several advantages.
Returning experience: With 21 starters back, UTSA had continuity that many conference rivals lacked.
Coaching momentum: Traylor had established a positive direction for the program.
Offensive balance: Quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere McCormick gave UTSA multiple ways to move the ball.
Improving roster quality: Recruiting and player development had strengthened the program.
The biggest question was whether UTSA could finish ahead of UAB in the West Division.
The odds placed the two teams close together, suggesting sportsbooks expected a competitive race.
The Roadrunners exceeded even their optimistic preseason expectations.
UTSA won its first 11 games before losing to North Texas in the regular-season finale.
The Roadrunners finished 7-1 in conference play, winning the West Division.
They then hosted Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship Game.
UTSA won 49-41, securing the program's first conference football title.
The Roadrunners finished 12-2 overall after losing to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl.
UTSA's original championship odds varied by sportsbook.
Historical odds | $100 stake | Profit | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|
+300 | $100 | $300 | $400 |
+325 | $100 | $325 | $425 |
A bettor who backed UTSA at +325 before the season would have earned $325 in profit on a $100 winning wager.
That was a stronger return than the prices available on Marshall or UAB.
UTSA was the winning selection in the original 2021 Conference USA championship futures market.
Western Kentucky was one of the most interesting teams in the original preview.
The Hilltoppers were listed at +1000 in the opening market, with consensus odds of +966.
Those prices reflected a team with potential but considerable uncertainty.
The major attraction was quarterback Bailey Zappe.
Zappe transferred from Houston Baptist, bringing several offensive teammates and familiarity with coordinator Zach Kittley's system.
The original article correctly anticipated that Western Kentucky would look significantly different offensively.
Zappe had demonstrated impressive passing ability at Houston Baptist.
His arrival gave Western Kentucky an opportunity to transform an offense that had struggled to produce consistently.
The Hilltoppers also benefited from playing in the East Division, where Marshall was adjusting to a new head coach.
If Western Kentucky's offense improved quickly, the division title was attainable.
At +1000, the potential payout was substantially larger than the leading contenders' prices.
Zappe produced one of the most remarkable passing seasons in college football history.
He finished the 2021 season with 5,967 passing yards and 62 touchdown passes, setting FBS single-season records.
Western Kentucky's offense became one of the most productive in the country.
The Hilltoppers finished 7-1 in Conference USA play and won the East Division.
They reached the conference championship game but lost 49-41 to UTSA.
Western Kentucky finished 9-5 overall after defeating Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Western Kentucky reached the championship game and came within eight points of winning the conference.
That made the Hilltoppers one of the strongest long-shot contenders in the original market.
However, a championship futures wager required Western Kentucky to win the title.
The +1000 bet ultimately lost.
The preseason argument was still well supported by the team's performance: Zappe transformed the offense, and Western Kentucky won its division.
Florida Atlantic opened at +700, with consensus odds of +833.
The Owls had enjoyed championship success in recent seasons and appeared capable of challenging Marshall and Western Kentucky in the East.
However, their 2021 season didn't meet those expectations.
Florida Atlantic finished 3-5 in conference play and 5-7 overall.
The Owls did not seriously challenge for the East Division title.
Their championship futures bets lost.
Florida Atlantic's struggles also demonstrated how quickly the conference hierarchy could change.
Recent success offered useful context, but it didn't guarantee another strong season.
The 2021 championship format featured two divisions.
The East and West Division winners advanced to the Conference USA Championship Game.
Unlike many major conference title games, the championship was hosted by one of the participating schools rather than played at a predetermined neutral venue.
That added another consideration for futures bettors.
A team's likely path to hosting the championship could influence its title chances.
Marshall was the preseason favorite, with Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky considered possible challengers.
Western Kentucky ultimately won the division with a 7-1 conference record.
UAB and UTSA were the leading contenders.
UTSA finished 7-1, ahead of UAB at 6-2.
The Roadrunners earned the right to host the championship game in San Antonio.
Bettors needed to evaluate more than overall team strength.
A team could be among the best in the conference but fail to reach the title game because of its divisional competition.
UAB provided a clear example.
The Blazers finished 9-4 overall but missed the championship game because UTSA won the West.
Western Kentucky, meanwhile, took advantage of a more open East Division and reached the final despite entering the season at much longer odds than Marshall.
For current college football markets, our college football betting coverage includes matchup analysis and picks throughout the season.
The following standings show how the two divisions finished in conference play.
Team | Conference record | Overall record |
|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky | 7-1 | 9-5 |
Marshall | 5-3 | 7-6 |
Old Dominion | 5-3 | 6-7 |
Middle Tennessee | 4-4 | 7-6 |
Florida Atlantic | 3-5 | 5-7 |
Charlotte | 3-5 | 5-7 |
FIU | 0-8 | 1-11 |
Team | Conference record | Overall record |
|---|---|---|
UTSA | 7-1 | 12-2 |
UAB | 6-2 | 9-4 |
North Texas | 5-3 | 6-7 |
UTEP | 4-4 | 7-6 |
Rice | 3-5 | 4-8 |
Southern Miss | 2-6 | 3-9 |
Louisiana Tech | 2-6 | 3-9 |
Overall records include postseason games. Conference records determine the divisional standings.
Western Kentucky and UTSA finished with identical 7-1 conference records, setting up the championship matchup.
Both teams justified their preseason status as credible challengers, although UTSA ultimately claimed the title.
The championship game took place on December 3, 2021, at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
UTSA entered as the West Division champion, while Western Kentucky represented the East.
The matchup brought together two productive offenses led by Harris and Zappe.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky | 10 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 41 |
UTSA | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
UTSA took control during the second and third quarters, building a 42-13 lead.
Western Kentucky responded with a remarkable comeback attempt, reducing the deficit to eight points.
The Roadrunners held on to win 49-41.
Player | Team | Performance |
|---|---|---|
Sincere McCormick | UTSA | 204 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs |
Frank Harris | UTSA | 218 passing yards, 2 passing TDs |
Bailey Zappe | Western Kentucky | 577 passing yards, 4 passing TDs |
Mitchell Tinsley | Western Kentucky | 179 receiving yards, 2 TDs |
Jerreth Sterns | Western Kentucky | 179 receiving yards, 2 TDs |
McCormick was named the championship game's Most Valuable Player.
He carried 36 times for 204 yards and three touchdowns, providing the physical rushing attack that helped UTSA control important stretches of the game.
Harris added an efficient passing performance and contributed with his legs.
Zappe threw for 577 yards and four touchdowns, setting a Conference USA Championship Game passing record.
Western Kentucky's offense generated enough production to threaten a comeback, but UTSA's early advantage proved decisive.
UTSA capitalized on Western Kentucky mistakes to extend its lead.
The Roadrunners recovered a muffed punt and intercepted Zappe during a crucial stretch of the second half.
Those turnovers helped UTSA build its 29-point advantage.
Western Kentucky fought back, but a final Hail Mary attempt was intercepted as time expired.
The Roadrunners celebrated their first Conference USA football championship.
The preseason market correctly identified UTSA as one of the three leading contenders.
However, it placed Marshall and UAB ahead of the Roadrunners.
Western Kentucky also performed considerably better than its +1000 opening odds might have suggested.
Team | Opening odds | 2021 result | Futures outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
UTSA | +300 | Conference champion | Win |
Western Kentucky | +1000 | Lost championship game | Loss |
UAB | +275 | Second in West | Loss |
Marshall | +250 | Second in East | Loss |
Florida Atlantic | +700 | Fifth in East | Loss |
Old Dominion | +2800 | Tied second in East | Loss |
North Texas | +2800 | Third in West | Loss |
UTEP | +10000 | Fourth in West | Loss |
UTSA's championship rewarded bettors who backed the Roadrunners before the season.
Western Kentucky came closest among the longer-priced challengers.
Marshall and UAB remained competitive programs but failed to reach the title game.
The results showed that the market's top tier was broadly reasonable, although the order of the leading teams proved incorrect.
UTSA's 21 returning starters were a major part of the preseason argument.
After an unusual 2020 season, continuity gave the Roadrunners a foundation that several rivals lacked.
That experience helped UTSA compete consistently throughout the conference schedule.
Marshall entered as the favorite despite replacing its longtime head coach.
The Thundering Herd remained competitive but failed to win the East.
A coaching change doesn't automatically make a team weaker, but it introduces uncertainty that needs to be reflected in futures pricing.
UAB and UTSA were both strong teams, but only one could represent the West.
UTSA's success prevented UAB from returning to the championship game.
Evaluating a team's path through its division is essential when betting on conference titles.
Western Kentucky's addition of Zappe and key offensive personnel changed its outlook dramatically.
The Hilltoppers developed into a high-scoring team and reached the championship game.
That improvement made Western Kentucky one of the most interesting preseason long shots.
Marshall opened at +250, while UTSA was available at +300 or +325.
The Roadrunners offered a larger payout and ultimately won the championship.
The difference highlights the importance of comparing odds rather than simply selecting the preseason favorite.
UTSA won the championship, defeating Western Kentucky 49-41 on December 3, 2021.
The original ATS.io table listed UTSA at +300 opening odds, with consensus and PointsBet prices of +325.
Marshall was the opening favorite at +250, followed by UAB at +275 and UTSA at +300.
A $100 winning wager at +325 would have produced $325 in profit, plus the original $100 stake.
UTSA represented the West Division, while Western Kentucky represented the East.
UTSA defeated Western Kentucky 49-41.
The game took place at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
UTSA running back Sincere McCormick was named MVP after rushing for 204 yards and three touchdowns.
Western Kentucky won the East Division with a 7-1 conference record and finished 9-5 overall. The Hilltoppers lost to UTSA in the championship game.
Zappe threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, setting FBS single-season records.
No. UAB finished 6-2 in conference play, behind UTSA in the West Division.
No. Marshall finished 5-3 in conference play and did not reach the championship game.
The original championship market identified three clear contenders: Marshall, UAB, and UTSA.
Marshall had the strongest preseason price, while UAB offered established coaching continuity and recent championship success.
UTSA brought returning experience, improving recruiting, and momentum under Jeff Traylor.
The Roadrunners ultimately delivered the strongest season.
They won the West Division, hosted the championship game, and defeated Western Kentucky 49-41 to claim the program's first Conference USA title.
Western Kentucky also justified the original preview's interest in its offensive potential, with Zappe leading the Hilltoppers to the East Division championship.
→ Our Take: UTSA at +325 was the winning futures opportunity in the 2021 Conference USA market. The Roadrunners had the continuity and talent to challenge UAB, and their season confirmed that the preseason optimism was justified. Western Kentucky's run also showed why transfers and coaching changes deserve close attention in smaller-conference futures markets. The most useful lesson is to evaluate a team's path to the championship alongside its overall strength, particularly when divisional competition can eliminate a contender before the title game.
Updated October 26, 2026
