A lot of big-name quarterbacks left the college ranks and joined the NFL over the summer. The new crop of start quarterbacks are the guys listed at the top of the Heisman Trophy futures board.
Devonta Smith broke a streak of four Heisman Trophy winners that play the QB position. Smith was actually the first wide receiver to win since Desmond Howard in 1991. The last three skill position winners have all been from Alabama. You’d have to go back to Reggie Bush in 2005 to find a running back or wide receiver not from Alabama.
The starting point for the Heisman is still a quarterback, though. Smith’s win was historic, but from 2006-2020, 12 of the 15 winners were quarterbacks.
As a result, you’ll see a lot of them at the top of the odds board. Click ‘Open’ to sort by the shortest odds to the longest.
2021-2022 Heisman Trophy Betting Odds:
|Brian Robinson Jr||+6000||+4000||+5000||+5000|
|Donald Chaney Jr||+15000||+15000||+15000|
|Dorian Thompson Robinson||+15000||+15000|
|Frank Gore Jr||+30000||+50000||+50000||+30000|
|Michael Penix Jr||+5000||+15000||+20000||+20000|
THE PRESEASON HEISMAN TROPHY AWARD WINNER ODDS
Spencer Rattler is the favorite by virtue of playing quarterback at Oklahoma. He has all the tools to be successful with head coach Lincoln Riley and he is also the most experienced of the quarterbacks at the top of the list. C.J. Stroud is taking over for Justin Fields at Ohio State. D.J. Uiagalelei is taking over for Trevor Lawrence at Clemson. Bryce Young is taking over for Mac Jones at Alabama.
JT Daniels and Sam Howell are holdovers, from Georgia and North Carolina, respectively. It is extremely hard to win the award at a non-elite school, so Daniels and Howell will have to lead their teams well because Lamar Jackson is really the only recent Heisman Trophy winner to come from a team that wasn’t a National Championship contender.
Bijan Robinson is the lowest non-QB. The Texas running back should be a great player in Steve Sarkisian’s offense for this season. He is only a sophomore, but Mark Ingram won the Heisman as a sophomore at Alabama, Lamar Jackson won at Louisville, and freshmen quarterbacks Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston have won the award recently, so it can happen.
There are dozens of players listed, as the odds go pretty deep for this award. You have to dig deep to find a National Championship contender, though. That would mean a team from a major conference and a team that has the right kind of schedule to make a huge run.
That means ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC. That means a team with an easy enough schedule to play in a conference championship game or enough talent to beat anybody. When you think about it that way, the list of players that can win the Heisman is rather small, but you can find some good values among that group.
HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER HANDICAPPING
What makes it harder for Robinson than his age is the same thing that makes it hard for guys like Breece Hall, Master Teague, and Isaiah Spiller. Quarterbacks have won 17 of the last 21 Heisman Trophy votes.
Also, the average wins in the regular season for the team with the Heisman winner has been 11. Will Texas win 11 games? Iowa State? Texas A&M?
It is as much a team success award as it is an individual success award. Quarterbacks get all the headlines and accolades in CFB. That means you’ll want to look for quarterbacks. Wide receivers are thrown passes from quarterbacks, so the stats that they accumulate are also stats that the QB accumulates. Your best bet outside of a QB is a running back, but the game is really tailored towards throwing the football in a lot of places.
Charles Woodson is the only defensive player since two-way player Ernie Davis in 1961 to win the award, so you don’t really want to go that route.