Notre Dame vs Georgia Prediction: Sugar Bowl & CFP Quarterfinal Picks – 1/2/25

On January 2 (after being rescheduled from New Year's Day due to the attack in New Orleans), the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will meet the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. This matchup will double as this year’s Sugar Bowl from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Going into the game, Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite, despite Georgia being the higher-seeded team, while the total has been set at 46.5 points.

Here, you can find our comprehensive breakdown of Notre Dame vs Georgia from the Sugar Bowl. Our team accurately predicted that Notre Dame would win and cover the spread in the first round of the playoff against Indiana. Now we will use the same college football models to predict the outcome of this matchup, as Notre Dame looks for a second straight playoff win while Georgia makes its debut in the new playoff format.

Notre Dame Looks to Build On First-Round Win

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had success both on the scoreboard and in the college football betting markets in round one of the College Football Playoff. The Irish got off to a great start against the Indiana Hoosiers and never looked back in that game, dominating their opponents from the Big Ten to get to the quarterfinals. Now the question is how Notre Dame will handle being in a much less friendly environment against a much better opponent.

Notre Dame played in the first-ever College Football Playoff home game, as this is the first year where home games were awarded in the first round of action. Going from that to a neutral site game that happens to be played in the heart of SEC country could be a huge concern for Notre Dame going into this game. But if the Irish can stuff the run the way they did against Indiana, they could overcome the lack of home-field advantage in this contest.

Notre Dame held Indiana under 50 rushing yards as a team through three quarters in the first round of this tournament. Stopping the run on early downs forced Indiana to be a predictable passing team in long-yardage third-down situations. With Georgia’s quarterback situation meaning an unproven quarterback on the field for the Bulldogs, Notre Dame could win this game if they continue to plug the running lanes here.

Can Georgia Overcome QB Concerns?

The Georgia Bulldogs have played a total of nine overtimes in their last two games going into the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech in eight overtimes to end their regular season, before defeating Texas in one overtime in the SEC Championship Game. Now, the Bulldogs will look to pick up their first win in this year’s playoff, but they will need to overcome uncertainty at the quarterback position to do that.

It is unlikely that Carson Beck will play in this game after he suffered an elbow injury against Texas in the SEC title game. As a result, it is likely that Gunner Stockton will get the start at quarterback, as Stockton did take the field while Beck was out against the Longhorns. Against an excellent Notre Dame defense, losing the experience of Beck could be a crucial blow, even if Beck’s inconsistent play can be less than ideal at times.

With Beck out, running the football effectively will be a massive key to this game for Georgia. If the Bulldogs can’t get ahead of schedule with their run game on first and second downs, they will put Stockton in predictable passing situations against a quality defense. That would be a terrible spot to put an unproven quarterback in one of the biggest matchups of the year in college football.

Notre Dame vs Georgia Prediction

Our best bet for Notre Dame vs Georgia is for the Georgia Bulldogs to win in what is close to a pick ’em game as the lines come out for the game following Notre Dame’s first round victory. While the Bulldogs are in a rough spot at the quarterback position going into this game, we are concerned with how Notre Dame’s offense will perform against the Georgia defense here. Look for the Bulldogs to keep Riley Leonard and the Irish at bay and for the offense to do just enough to grab this game in the Crescent City.

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