Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs: College Football Free Betting Pick

The Nevada Wolf Pack (+17) are heading west to visit their MWC counterpart No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at SDCCU Stadium. Kickoff for this keymatchup is pegged for 10:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

Nevada is a live dog and is currently getting 17 points at William Hill in this Saturday MWC matchup. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to lay down $1,400 in order to win $100 back on the Aztecs (-1400). The Wolf Pack are getting +780 moneyline odds. There should be multiple good in-game betting opportunities in this matchup, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points.

Betting odds have moved a bit from where they initially opened. The line opened at -17 and the game’s total was set originally at 41.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Wolf Pack have gained 5.0 units while the Aztecs are up 7.5 units.

The Wolf Pack are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against conference opponents. The Aztecs are 7-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

The Wolf Pack are coming off a resounding 21-10 win over New Mexico last week. Carson Strong completed 28-of-40 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Toa Taua (only 28 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Devonte Lee (68 yards on nine carries) provided the ground attack while Romeo Doubs (11 receptions, 167 yards, one TD) and Elijah Cooks (six catches, 74 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

San Diego State just earned a 20-17 win over UNLV back in Week 9. The defensive unit let the Rebels rush for 121 yards on 33 attempts. Randal Grimes had a good outing in the loss, recording 121 yards and a score on five catches for UNLV. For San Diego State, Ryan Agnew completed 14-of-23 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Juwan Washington (89 rushing yards on 16 attempts) handled the running game as Kobe Smith (seven receptions, 78 yards) and Jesse Matthews (two catches, 15 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Nevada has run the ball on 49.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has a rush percentage of 61.8 percent. The Wolf Pack have run for 120 yards/game (including 109 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aztecs are putting up 150 rush yards per game (142 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Aztecs may be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 15 sacks while the D-line has logged 19 sacks. The Wolf Pack O-line has given up 23 sacks and their defense has created only 14 sacks.

The Wolf Pack offensive scheme has averaged 238 yards through the air overall (246 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Aztecs have put up 178 pass yards per outing (182.0 against MWC foes) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Nevada has allowed opponents to run for an average of 146 yards and throw for 268 yards per game. The San Diego State defense has allowed 213.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 69.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have allowed a 7.73 ANY/A.

Offensively, Strong is up to 1,034 passing yards on the year, and has completed 62 percent of his 174 attempts with five passing scores and five interceptions. Strong’s got a 4.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.98 over the last two games.

Romeo Doubs (476 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Devonte Lee (121 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Elijah Cooks (467 receiving yards, five TDs) have each played significant roles lately.

In the home locker room, Ryan Agnew has completed 127-of-199 passes for 1,339 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Agnew’s ANY/A sits at 6.05 for the season and 4.77 across his past two games.

We expect the Aztecs to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Kobe Smith (485 receiving yards, four receiving TDs this season), Juwan Washington (354 rush yards, one rush TD, two receiving TDs) and Chase Jasmin (99 rush yards, one rush TD) have been key factors in the San Diego State offense.

These two teams faced off a year ago with the final result being a 28-24 win for Nevada.

NCAA Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs

Nevada 13  San Diego State 23 – Take Nevada and the points!

Betting Trends

The O/U for Nevada’s last game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 triumph over New Mexico.

As a team, Nevada has averaged 2.7 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 2.3 over its last two.

San Diego State has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its past two.

San Diego State has lost one fumble this season while Nevada has lost seven.

In its last three contests, Nevada is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for San Diego State’s last game was set at 44. The under cashed in the 20-17 win over UNLV.

In its last three matches, San Diego State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Wolf Pack offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aztecs have put up three such plays.

The Nevada defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while San Diego State has given up nine such plays.

The Nevada offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Diego State has created four such runs.

The Wolf Pack defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up four such runs.

The San Diego State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this year. Nevada has registered 14 sacks.

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