The Baylor Bears appear to be back, rebuilt in three years following the end of the Art Briles Era. While the Briles Era was known for its prolific offenses and 10+ win seasons, the lack of a defense kept those teams from reaching their full potential. But that is not the case with Matt Rhule’s Bears.
In Rhule’s third season as head coach, the team is one of college football’s five remaining undefeated teams. They don’t have a top-ranked, well—anything. But what they do have is a good offense (No. 25 in total yards; No. 27 in scoring) and a good defense (No. 31 in total yards allowed; No. 17 in points allowed).
It’s the old ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’ approach; they are good at everything but not great at anything. In taking that approach to playing the game, they have gotten nine games into the season without a loss.
So, at this point, are they worth betting on to win the national championship? Or make the playoffs? Or win the Big 12? Their odds (according to DraftKings) to do each are as follows:
- National Championship: +15,000
- Playoffs: Yes +800; No -1430
- Big 12: +550
They are the No. 13 team in the CFP committee’s latest poll. So, their chances of making it into the playoffs, let alone winning the national championship, are slim (which is reflected in their odds). For them to make it into the playoffs, they would have to win and hope for a whole lot of help.
The Committee tends to be partial to the blue bloods, of which Baylor is not, so it would have to be an open and shut case. Even if they do go undefeated, most of the one-loss candidates would still get in over them. However, should enough of these guys suffer a second loss, the Bears might have a chance.
At this point in the season, unless there is an epic upset, LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson will take three of the four spots. For Baylor to get in, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Utah, and Penn State would need a second loss; Minnesota would need two. Baylor will have to hand Oklahoma its second loss this weekend.
Minnesota could fall twice (Iowa, Wisconsin). Alabama and Georgia have a game they could lose, as does Penn State. But Utah and Oregon only have one game they might lose—when they face each other in the Pac-12 title game. So, the winner will likely get the fourth spot over an undefeated Baylor.
Of course, their shot at remaining undefeated is tenuous, at best. They have to face Oklahoma this weekend and then Texas the following week. Both games are winnable, but they could just as easily lose. Then there is still the Big 12 title game they will need to win.
So—how should you bet?
A lot of things have to go their way for them to make the playoffs. Of course, if they don’t, they will not have a shot at winning the national championship. Some of those things could go right, but not all of them. The payout at +15000 would be awesome, but there is a reason why the odds are that high—it isn’t going to happen.
But as for the Big 12, we will know for sure after they face Oklahoma this weekend (they are ten-point underdogs at home). However, Oklahoma’s defense is as weak as ever; Baylor will score some points. But enough to keep up with the Sooners?
Eh—maybe.
Pass on Baylor to win the title or make the playoffs but skip Starbucks for the rest of the week and put a little down (just a little) on Baylor to win the Big 12. Definitely take the points this weekend, too.