San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams will be the final game for Week 4 on Monday Night Football. The NFC West divisional clash features the teams currently at the top and bottom of the division, despite being just a game apart. The Rams sit at 2-1 and the 49ers at 1-2, with both of the other two teams in the division having already played and sitting at 2-2.
The Rams have had smaller issues both offensively and defensively thus far, while it is offense that has been more of an issue for the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fewest points of any team thus far and by a considerable margin. Even considering playing a game fewer than the remainder of the other teams, they are allowing just 12.3 points per game.
The 49ers have risen to a -2 favorite at home. The total is also set low, at 42.5. These betting lines make perfect sense given the body of work each team has put out thus far.
We will have you covered for player props on all of the prime time games this season.
Deebo Samuel Player Prop Bet
We are going back to the well on a player prop that we bet on last week, but fell short. Deebo Samuel has been the most effective ball carrier in the league for a full year now, and one down game will not change the fact of that statement. Here is what we said last week leading into the game.
Oftentimes when a starting quarterback gets injured, we simply do not know what the offense will look like with the replacement. That is not the case with the 49ers, as Garoppolo has a track record as the starter. Graoppolo’s 2021 season, along with the schematic deployment of Deebo Samuel saw him emerge as one of the top playmakers in the NFL. The wide receiver continues to be used in a dual threat role, both carrying and catching the ball.
The 49ers running back situation is a bit dire. They have had two running back injuries strike in as many weeks. Eli Mitchell was lost in Week 1 and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price was lost in Week 2. The 49ers are down to Jeff Wilson as the starter with undrafted rookie Jordan Mason as the number two. This is is significant as Wilson is a player that has had loads of health issues. Deebo Samuel’s already high level of utilization as a runner is likely to be called upon even more.
It was the middle of the 2021 season when 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan realized just how effective Samuel would be as a runner. Once Samuel received five carries in Week 9 of 2021, there has been no looking back. He has had at least four carries in every game since. The only game under five carries was just last week. The production remained as Samuel has 52 and 53 yards rushing in each game this season. Samuel has 448 rushing yards over his last 10 games, averaging 44.8 yards per game in that span on an average of 6.5 carries per game.
The opportunity was there last week, as Samuel had five carries. It was the actual production that was lacking in an outlier situation. Oddsmakers have not been fooled however, as the rushing prop for this week remains identical at 30.5 yards to what it was last week.
Samuel has a track record of rushing production against the Rams in the past year. In two games against the Rams last season, Samuel notched rushing lines of 5/36/1 and 8/45/1. This is in addition to the overall body of work from both last season and the first two games of this season. Samuel will be called upon to carry the ball again on Monday Night, and a bet on production has been the winning bet in the vast majority of cases over the last calendar year.
The Samuel rushing over is once again a sound play. But he should also be looked at as a touchdown scorer. Samuel returns +130 to score any time in this game. Both will be betting plays.