The Patriots and Dolphins face off in the first AFC East clash of the year. These are two teams that seem to be sliding in opposing directions, and that’s not the best of news for New England Patriots fans. The Patriots were simply not the same without Tom Brady under center in 2020. While the replacement of Cam Newton with Mac Jones at quarterback is certainly a step in the right direction, it may be some time before the Pats can even think of returning to former glory. The Dolphins on the other hand understood they needed to rebuild their roster top to bottom, and have done it impeccably. They even became competitive in 2020, much sooner than anyone could have hoped for. They are a soundly coached team with a very high end defense and a young offense that will match that of the defense soon enough.
Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Pick
This game will be played at 1PM EST on Sunday, September 12th, 2021 at Gillette Stadium
Why bet the Dolphins?
✅ The Patriots defense is simply not quite what it has been in recent years, and they will not have the best defensive unit on the field in this matchup. While the scoring defense for the Patriots still looked nice enough in 2020, the yards per play allowed slipped terribly, and they finished in the bottom third of the league. The Patriots defense was also not opportunistic, as they ranked middle of the pack in takeaways. This was not so for the Dolphins. The Dolphins were actually a better scoring defense than the Patriots in 2020, and most notably lead the entire league in takeaways. The Dolphins are simply not getting the credit for being the complete team they have become when they are an underdog in this matchup.
✅ The quarterback battle in this game will be a huge key. Of course Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones are not on the field at the same time, but the play of each could very well determine the winner. By every account and measure, Tua has taken large steps forward at the dawn of his second pro season. He also gets a shiny new weapon in Jaylen Waddle, a high end prospect who he has familiarity with from his days at Alabama. Tua looked fantastic in the preseason and that will carry over into the regular season. Mac Jones will wish he had Waddle in his arsenal, as the Patriots attempt a ground assault on the Dolphins. Even with as NFL ready as Jones has looked, if that ground attack fails and the Patriots are trailing, the speed of the NFL game will be an issue for Jones. It is his first start and that is not even a criticism, just a fact and a growing pain he will have to go through. While Jakobi Meyers and Jonnu Smith are solid players, there is no differentiating skill position player for Jones to lean on in a neutral or negative game script.
✅ If this is a close game, the winner could very well come down to which passing offense can execute down the stretch. Again, Mac Jones likely has a great career ahead of him, but it is difficult seeing the team starting the rookie, backed by an average group of pass catchers, being the team that is able to do so. Simply a single season of NFL experience will be a huge edge for Tua and the Dolphins in this regard. The Dolphins also possess the more dynamic playmakers, and are getting a field goal to boot. Take the Phins.